Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation

This paper estimates regime-switching monetary policy rules featuring trend inflation using post-WWII US data. We find evidence in favour of regime shifts and time-variation of the inflation target. We also find a drop in the inflation gap persistence when entering the Great Moderation sample. Estimated Taylor rule parameters and regimes are robust across different monetary policy models. We propose an ‘internal consistency’ test to discriminate among our estimated rules. Such a test relies upon a feedback mechanism running from the monetary policy stance to the inflation gap. Our results support the stochastic autoregressive process as the most consistent model for trend inflation, above all when conditioning to the post-1985 subsample.active and passive Taylor rules; trend inflation; inflation gap persistence; Markov-switching models

The Composite Twin Higgs scenario

Based on an explicit model, we propose and discuss the generic features of a possible implementation of the Twin Higgs program in the context of composite Higgs models. We find that the Twin Higgs quadratic divergence cancellation argument can be uplifted to a genuine protection of the Higgs potential, based on symmetries and selection rules, but only under certain conditions which are not fulfilled in some of the existing models. We also find that a viable scenario, not plagued by a massless Twin Photon, can be obtained by not gauging the Twin Hypercharge and taking this as the only source of Twin Symmetry breaking at a very high scale.Comment: 19 pages; v2: typos and notation corrected, results unchanged; v3: published versio

Bigger Fish to Fry: Evidence (or Lack of) for Fish Consumption in Ancient Syracuse (Sicily)

Fish and fish products are considered important sources of nutrition due to their high protein, fat, and fat-soluble vitamin content. These food items have been extensively discussed and celebrated in various genres of Greek literature. However, there is a discrepancy between the rich textual evidence of fish cooking and consumption and the limited archaeological evidence of fishing gear, especially with respect to Greek Sicily. Such scarcity of evidence is particularly evident in the Archaic period. To address the issue of fish consumption in Greek Sicily and to determine the role of fish in the local communities’ diet, this study focuses on the new data that have emerged from stable isotopes analysis on skeletal remains from a recently discovered Archaic period necropolis in Syracuse. The study analyzes the dietary habits of the individuals buried in the necropolis and establishes possible connections between burial practices and diet. Additionally, the study compares the dietary patterns with the social status of the individuals, as demonstrated by the funerary context. The comparison of the new evidence with similar contexts will allow for a critical review of the literary sources and the reinterpretation of the archaeological record. Through this, the study aims to establish the role of fish in the diet of the Greeks of Sicily and their significance at the dining table

Policy Rules, Regime Switches, and Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation for the U.S.

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters, switches in policy shocks' volatility, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in terms of data-fit and identification of the changes in the FOMC's chairmanships. Policy breaks are found not to be synchronized with variations in policy shocks' volatilities. Finally, we detect a negative correlation between systematic monetary policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence

Naturalness and Neutral Naturalness in the LHC Era

We present two different approaches to solve the hierarchy problem of the Standard Model and to provide a consistent dynamical mechanism for electroweak symmetry breaking. As a first scenario, we follow the naturalness paradigm as realized in Composite Higgs theories, which conceive the Higgs particle as a bound state of a new strongly interacting sector confining at the TeV scale. We present a minimal implementation of the model and study in detail the phenomenology of vector resonances, which are predicted as states excited from the vacuum by the conserved currents of the new strong dynamics. This analysis allows us to derive constraints on the parameter space of Composite Higgs models from the presently available LHC data and to confront naturalness with experimental results. Motivated by the rising tension between theoretical expectations and the absence of new physics signals at the LHC, we consider as a second possibility the neutral naturalness paradigm and address the hierarchy problem by posing the existence of a mirror copy of the Standard Model, as realized in Twin Higgs theories. This new color-blind sector is the main actor in protecting the Higgs mass from large radiative corrections and is un-discoverable at the LHC, allowing us to push far in the ultraviolet the scale where the Standard Model effective theory breaks down and colored resonances appear. We present an implementation of the Twin Higgs program into a composite model and discuss the requirements for uplifting the symmetry protection mechanism also to the ultraviolet theory. After introducing a consistent Composite Twin Higgs model, we consider the constraints imposed on the scale where colored resonances are expected by the determination of the Higgs mass at three loops order, electroweak precision tests and perturbativity of the ultraviolet-complete model. We show that, although allowing in principle the new physics scale to lie far out of the LHC reach, these constructions need the existence of light colored top partners, with a mass of around 2-4 TeV, to comply with indirect observations. Neutral naturalness models may then evade detection at the LHC, but they can be probed and falsified at future colliders

Proposal of a Nomenclature for Hydrogeological Instability Risks and Case Studies of Conservative Soil Tillage for Environmental Protection

In order to implement environmental protection, within the Soil Cadastre, previously proposed as a multipurpose inventory that aims to promote sustainable soil uses, the hydrogeological instability caused by human activities is the focus of this work. These activities can be aimed at sustainable agricultural soil use or the building of roads to allow the access to the fields. The soil’s hydrogeological instability causes the unsustainable use and management of a cadastral parcel. Therefore, the aim of this work is to propose a nomenclature for hydrogeological instability risks, as well as the best practices of conservative soil tillage in case studies, in order to reduce environmental impact. According to the proposed Soil Cadastre, the missing environmental sustainability of a parcel and the reason for this must be communicated to the field owner or manager. In a hilly area of inland Western Sicily, four main risk types of hydrogeological instability were identified: hydrogeological instability (caused only by natural factors); hydraulic-pedological-farming instability (crop not suitable for the field for missing or insufficient soil drainage and landslides); hydraulic-infrastructural instability (built up infrastructures unsuitable for the site); hydraulic-infrastructural-pedological-management instability (field improvements changing the downflow line and crop operations not suitable for the soil and climate parameters). The farm owner or manager must be informed about the risk type affecting their fields in order to perform the best practices (i.e., conservative soil tillage), for implementing or restoring a sustainable soil use or management in each cadastral parcel

Nomenclature for Hydrogeological Instability Risks

The nomenclature for hydrogeological instability risks includes four main risks, which are distinguished according to the risk causes : 1) hydrogeological risk, that is slowly caused by natural factors (e.g. collapse landslides in a calcareous cliff in uninhabited areas and erosion along a marly-calcareous slope) in environments where human activities are minimal, i.e. woods, forests and mountain pastures; 2) hydraulic-pedological farming risk, that implies the occurrence of landslides in every winter and is caused by incorrect crop selection, not suitable for the soil and climate parameters (e.g. on a hilly slope with a clay vertisol type with a landslide having different fronts, when the arable land is cultivated with a cereal-legume crop rotation), or the presence of springs with missing drainage in clay soils with a high gradient; 3) hydraulic-infrastructural risk, that is caused by the building up of infrastructures not suitable for the surrounding environment, as they change the downflow of shallow water; 4) hydraulic-infrastructural-pedological-management risk, that is caused by crop operations not suitable for soil and crop parameters, where the selected cultivated plant species are suitable for the environment and field improvements change water downflow (e.g. in soils along hilly calcarenite slopes cultivated with olive orchards, where up-down soil tillage causes shallow water erosion)

Diseases Caused by Xylella fastidiosa in Prunus Genus: An Overview of the Research on an Increasingly Widespread Pathogen

Cultivated plants belonging to the genus Prunus are globally widespread and for some countries, are economically important crops; and they play a key role in the composition of a landscape. Xylella fastidiosa is a key threat to plant health, and several Prunus species are heavily stressed by this pathogen, such as almond, peach, and plum; many strain types of different subspecies can cause severe diseases. This review highlights different approaches to managing epidemic events related to X. fastidiosa in stone fruit plants. In fact, in most new European and Asian outbreaks, almond is the main and very common host and peach, plum, apricot, and cherry are widespread and profitable crops for the involved areas. Various diseases associated with stone fruit plants show different degrees of severity in relation to cultivar, although investigations are still limited. The development and selection of tolerant and resistant cultivars and the study of resistance mechanisms activated by the plant against X. fastidiosa infections seem to be the best way to find long-term solutions aimed at making affected areas recover. In addition, observations in orchards severely affected by the disease can be essential for collecting tolerant or resistant materials within the local germplasm. In areas where the bacterium is not yet present, a qualitative-quantitative study on entomofauna is also important for the timely identification of potential vectors and for developing effective control strategies