Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time

Rotation and Macroturbulence in Metal-poor Field Red Giant and Red Horizontal Branch Stars

We report the results for rotational velocities, Vrot sin i, and macroturbulence dispersion, zeta(RT), for 12 metal-poor field red giant branch stars and 7 metal-poor field red horizontal branch stars. The results are based on Fourier transform analyses of absorption line profiles from high-resolution (R ~ 120,000), high-S/N (~ 215 per pixel) spectra obtained with the Gecko spectrograph at CFHT. We find that the zeta(RT) values for the metal-poor RGB stars are very similar to those for metal-rich disk giants studied earlier by Gray and his collaborators. Six of the RGB stars have small rotational values, less than 2.0 km/sec, while five show significant rotation, over 3 km/sec. The fraction of rapidly rotating RHB stars is somewhat lower than found among BHB stars. We devise two empirical methods to translate the line-broadening results obtained by Carney et al. (2003, 2008) into Vrot sin i for all the RGB and RHB stars they studied. Binning the RGB stars by luminosity, we find that most metal-poor field RGB stars show no detectable sign, on average, of rotation. However, the most luminous stars, with M(V) <= -1.5, do show net rotation, with mean values of 2 to 4 km/sec, depending on the algorithm employed, and these stars also show signs of radial velocity jitter and mass loss.Comment: accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

Indicative projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population to 2011

This discussion paper presents indicative projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population for a 20-year period from 1991. The 1991 base population has been reconstructed after adjusting for data problems evident in the age-distribution of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in the 1991 Census count. The projection assumes zero net migration and accepts moderate declines evident between 1986 and 1991 in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility and mortality. While recognising data problems associated with changing identification and the potential for this to affect future census counts the projections show that the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population will increase at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent per year during the 1991-96 period, exceeding 300,000 by 1996, several years earlier than previously forecasted. The annual rate of growth of the population is estimated to slowly decline in each of the subsequent five-year periods and is likely to be about 1.9 per cent by the 2006-2011 projection period. Assuming moderate declines in fertility and mortality, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is estimated to be about 416,000 in the year 2011. The decline in fertility during the projection period, assumed to take place at a modest rate, will reduce the relative size of the child population and will consequently effectively reduce the economic dependency burden on the working-age population. This reduction in dependency burden will be slightly offset by an increased aged population, although in absolute terms the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged over 65 years will remain comparatively small. The working-age population is expected to rise over the 20-year projection period re-emphasising the need for policies and programs targeted to meet the specific needs of a growing adult population

Perdeuterated cyanobiphenyl liquid crystals for infrared applications

Perdeuterated 4'-pentyl-4-cyanobiphenyl (D5CB) was synthesized and its physical properties evaluated and compared to those of 5CB. D5CB retains physical properties similar to those of 5CB, such as phase transition temperatures, dielectric constants, and refractive indices. An outstanding feature of D5CB is that it exhibits a much cleaner and reduced infrared absorption. Perdeuteration, therefore, extends the usable range of liquid crystals to the mid infrared by significantly reducing the absorption in the near infrared, which is essential for telecom applications

Local Electronic and Magnetic Studies of an Artificial La2FeCrO6 Double Perovskite

Through the utilization of element-resolved polarized x-ray probes, the electronic and magnetic state of an artificial La2FeCrO6 double perovskite were explored. Applying unit-cell level control of thin film growth on SrTiO3 (111), the rock salt double perovskite structure can be created for this system, which does not have an ordered perovskite phase in the bulk. We find that the Fe and Cr are in the proper 3+ valence state, but, contrary to previous studies, the element-resolved magnetic studies find the moments in field are small and show no evidence of a sizable magnetic moment in the remanent state.Comment: 3 pages, 4 figure

Discovery of a Non-Thermal Galactic Center Filament (G358.85+0.47) Parallel to the Galactic Plane

We report the discovery of a new non-thermal filament, G358.85+0.47, the ``Pelican'', located ~225 pc in projection from SgrA, and oriented parallel to the Galactic plane. VLA continuum observations at 20 cm reveal that this 7' (17.5 pc) structure bends at its northern extension and is comprised of parallel strands, most apparent at its ends. Observations at 6 and 3.6 cm reveal that the Pelican is a synchrotron-emitting source and is strongly linearly polarized over much of its extent. The spectral index of the filament changes from alpha(20/6)=-0.8 to alpha(6/3.6)=-1.5. The rotation measures exhibit a smooth gradient, with values ranging from -1000 rad/m2 to +500 rad/m2. The intrinsic magnetic field is well-aligned along the length of the filament. Based on these properties, we classify the Pelican as one of the non-thermal filaments unique to the Galactic center. Since these filaments (most of which are oriented perpendicular to the Galactic plane) are believed to trace the overall magnetic field in the inner Galaxy, the Pelican is the first detection of a component of this field parallel to the plane. The Pelican may thus mark a transition region of the magnetic field orientation in the inner kiloparsec of the Galaxy.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in ApJ Letters; Figs. 2 & 3 are color .ps files and best viewed in colo

Full Bulk Spin Polarization and Intrinsic Tunnel Barriers at the Surface of Layered Manganites

Transmission of information using the spin of the electron as well as its charge requires a high degree of spin polarization at surfaces. At surfaces however this degree of polarization can be quenched by competing interactions. Using a combination of surface sensitive x-ray and tunneling probes, we show for the quasi-two-dimensional bilayer manganites that the outermost Mn-O bilayer, alone, is affected: it is a 1-nm thick insulator that exhibits no long-range ferromagnetic order while the next bilayer displays the full spin polarization of the bulk. Such an abrupt localization of the surface effects is due to the two-dimensional nature of the layered manganite while the loss of ferromagnetism is attributed to weakened double exchange in the reconstructed surface bilayer and a resultant antiferromagnetic phase. The creation of a well-defined surface insulator demonstrates the ability to naturally self-assemble two of the most demanding components of an ideal magnetic tunnel junction.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure