Liquidity forecasting

When central banks enter into transactions to implement their monetary policy, they necessarily make use of their own balance sheets. Whether they are undertaking open market operations (OMO) to inject or drain funds from the banking system, or allowing the banks to use standing facilities to borrow or deposit funds, the central bank’s balance sheet will be impacted: the funds in question are commercial bank balances held at the central bank. Ideally, operations undertaken to implement policy should have a predictable impact on the economy, via the banking system. This means that the central bank needs to know the context in which it is operating: what is the current availability of commercial bank balances compared with the level of demand, and how is this expected to change in the near term? An accurate current picture and good forecast of the central bank’s likely future balance sheet is required. The same information on the central bank’s balance sheet is also needed if the central bank wishes to manage liquidity pro-actively. Most central banks do, whether it is to avoid a shortage of liquidity impacting on the payment system, or an excess impacting short-term yields and/or the exchange rate. This Handbook examines the issues involved in forecasting the central bank’s balance sheet. This is normally referred to as ‘liquidity forecasting’ since the item on the balance sheet which central banks typically try to manage is commercial banks balances, a subset of high-powered liquidity.Liquidity forecasting

Central bank management of surplus liquidity

Following a CCBS seminar in London, in February 2006, on the subject of central bank management of surplus liquidity, participants were invited to contribute to a collection of papers - case-studies of how a range of central banks around the world have tackled or are tackling the issues which arise from excess liquidity in the banking system. One of the aims was to produce something quite quickly. Much more remains to be said about the management of excess liquidity than is covered in this volume; but we hope that it will prove useful material to others who are addressing the same issues. Interested readers are also referred to the CCBS Lecture Series no. 3: “Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks”, by Joe Ganley.Central Bank,Management, Surplus, Liquidity

Developing financial markets

Central banks have an interest in well-functioning money markets, foreign exchange markets, and secondary markets for government securities. Efficient financial markets support both the monetary stability and financial stability goals of the central bank; and more broadly should benefit economic development. Well-functioning money markets support the transmission of an interest-rate based monetary policy and can provide information to the central bank. Liquid foreign exchange markets can help to stabilise the exchange rate and reduce transaction costs in cross-border trade and transfers. The development of these markets will support the later introduction of related financial markets such as repo and derivatives, which should in turn lead to improved risk management and financial stability, thereby enhancing economic welfare. Liquidity and price stability in short-term interest rate markets can support market-making, and thus liquidity in the securities markets. This in turn should reduce the cost of issuance for the government and other fixed-interest issuers. Indeed the secondary market for government securities may act as a catalyst for wider fixed income securities markets development: its yield curve is the benchmark for the pricing of the private sector credit. The advancement of these markets should be accompanied by the development of the appropriate market infrastructure such as robust payment and settlement systems and supportive legal framework. Many developing economies are characterised by illiquidity in these core markets, and in most cases a surplus of central bank money, in the form of excess commercial bank balances with the central bank. This handbook will look at what the central bank, and the Ministry of Finance as issuer of government securities, could do (and in some cases should not do) in support of the development of these markets.Developing financial markets

'The National, Regional & Global Phases of Jihadism': The Ideological Evolution & Geopolitical Transformation of Islamist Militant Terrorism in the Middle East & Southeast Asia

Since September 11th 2001 (9/11), substantial research has been conducted and published on the phenomenon of Islamist motivated militant terrorism; notably on the contemporary phenomenon of ‘global Jihadism’ and its growing threat to nations and the wider international community. However, little has analysed the different phases of ‘ideological evolution’ and ‘geopolitical transformation’ manifested within the wider phenomenon itself. As a result, Islamist militant terrorist organisations are often lumped together and defined, or identified, as belonging to a single ideological and geopolitical homogenous movement. This study endeavours to highlight that not only is this notion incorrect, but that the phenomenon is threefold consisting of three fundamentally different ideological and geopolitical phases of Islamist militant terrorism and thus categories of Islamist militant terrorist organisations in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The three phases and categories of Islamist militant terrorist organisations are identified in the study as ‘National’, ‘Regional’ and ‘Global’. Each comprises and represents different ideological contours and geopolitical ambitions. Collectively, these three phases and categories of organisations make up this study’s hypothesis that there have been three ideological and geopolitical sequential shifts in the phenomenon. The study’s sequential shift paradigm tracks the trajectory of the phenomenon beginning with the manifestation of National Islamist militant terrorist organisations, developing into Regional Islamist militant terrorist organisations and, finally, into Global Islamist militant terrorist organisations. The hypothesis is tested through an examination of Islamist militant terrorist organisations in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Here, the considered organisations are measured against the sequential shift paradigm, which provides key insight into their ideological and geopolitical contours. In turn, this helps to identify and categorise the National, Regional and Global phases and categories of Islamist militant terrorist organisations in the two considered regions and, therefore, further advances support for the study’s hypothesis. The analysis presented in this thesis on the phenomenon of Islamist militant terrorism finds that the study’s hypothesis applies and is analytically accurate in the context of the Middle East. In the context of Southeast Asia the analysis supports that there has been a shift from National to Regional Islamist militant terrorism but, however, that the third and hence Global phase of the phenomenon has thus far, although active in the region, failed to fully manifest. Therefore, the analysis presented in this thesis supports that the phenomenon of Islamist militant terrorism in Southeast Asia has not undergone a decisive ideological evolution or geopolitical transformation into Global Islamist militant terrorism

Chromosome 1 Map, Sequence and Variation

The construction of well characterised sequence-ready physical maps has been central to the generation of high quality genomic sequence by the Human Genome Project. The technological advances that made possible a clone based sequencing approach to large genomes have included the use of large insert bacterial clones and the development of high throughput fingerprinting techniques. The first part of this thesis is devoted to development and application of these improvements in technology. The adaptation of fluorescent technologies and their application to existing fingerprinting methods described in this work has resulted in a fingerprinting technique which improves upon levels of data accuracy, increases throughput and incorporates of increased levels of safety and automation. The initial application of this and other restriction digest fingerprinting methods to the assembly of large insert P1-artificial chromosome clones (PACs) was also evaluated. PACs were used to construct a 1.4 Mb contig across a region of chromosome 13q12 that includes the breast cancer susceptibility gene BRCA2. These experimental and technical developments were then utilised within a hierarchical mapping strategy to construct a 13 Mb contig of human chromosome 1pcen-1p13. The finished sequence generated by the clone based sequencing strategy provides the basis for the elucidation of genic features and the motifs that influence their regulation within the human genome sequence. Detailed analysis of the finished genomic sequence from 1pcen-1p13 is described. These analyses include the characterisation of base composition and determination of repeat content within the region, as well as identification of known and novel genes by manual annotation. The majority of differences between individuals can be attributed to allelic sequence variation. The characterisation of sequence differences and comprehension of how they may affect the expression and function of genes will be crucial for the study of molecular alterations in human disease. A subset of highly similar genes within 1pcen-1p13, in addition to seven other genes of interest, were investigated by developing and assessing assays to determine sequence variation. The particular challenges of investigating gene families where sequences are nearly identical were explored, and enable better resolution of new and previously available data. The consequences that these sequence changes may have upon gene function is also discussed, and this provides an example of the ways in which knowledge of genomic sequence can be analysed to support new areas of structural and functional research

Central Banking in Low Income Countries

Central banks play a significant role in providing the macroeconomic context for development and poverty reduction. Promoting low inflation and currency stability is not just IMF mantra; economic growth suffers as a result of high inflation or currency instability, with the poor and vulnerable the worst affected. Central banking in most countries aims to achieve monetary stability – a sound currency, with a stable exchange rate and/or low inflation – and financial sector stability – sound banks which provide good services without undertaking excessive risk, and an effective non-cash payment system. Most central banks deal with their governments (principally the Ministry of Finance) and commercial banks. They rarely deal with individuals. But the whole population will benefit from good central banking: good quality bank notes and low inflation are important directly to everyone; and it is typically the case that failure to deliver these harms most the vulnerable in society. Relatively small but well-targeted inputs to strengthen these functions may be one of the most effective forms of aid provision. Millions can benefit very rapidly from a few months of well-targeted advice. Financial sector stability and financial market development will normally take longer to deliver results than improvements in the area of monetary stability. But they can support sustainable economic growth, to the benefit of all. It is probably harder to ensure that financial sector development will provide direct benefits to the poor and vulnerable, as they may not be users of the services; and microfinance development is normally led by the government and commercial providers rather than the by central bank. But there are important areas for central bank involvement: banking supervision, microfinance supervision, and the development of widely-available non-cash payment services. This paper aims to provide a broad understanding of what central banks are, focussing in particular on their functions in developing countries with a view to facilitating donors in targeting and monitoring effectively the provision of aid. It was written for the UK's Department for International Development, and is targeted at DFID – and other donor organisation – officials working with central banks. It aims to describe, in non-technical terms, what central banks are and what the appropriate role for them in developing countries might be. The final chapters look at institution and capacity building, and donor co-ordination.Central Banking, Low, Income, Countries

Type II hot corrosion screening tests of a Cr2AlC MAX phase compound

Low-temperature hot corrosion tests were performed on bulk Cr2AlC MAX phase compounds for the first time. This material is a known alumina-former with good oxidation and Type I high-temperature hot corrosion resistance. Unlike traditional (Ni,Co)CrAl alumina formers, it contains no Ni or Co that may react with Na2SO4 salt deposits needed to form corrosive mixed (Ni,Co)SO4–Na2SO4 eutectic salts active in Type II hot corrosion. Cr2AlC samples coated with 20K2SO4–80Na2SO4 salt were exposed to 300 ppm SO2 at 700 °C for times up to 500 h. Weight change, recession, and cross-sectional microstructures identified some reactivity, but much reduced (< 1/10) compared to a Ni(Co) superalloy baseline material. Layered Al2O3/Cr2O3 scales were indicated, either separated by or intermixed with some retained salt. However, there was no conclusive indication of salt melting. Accelerated oxidation was proposed to explain the results, and coarse Cr7C3 impurities appeared to play a negative role. In contrast, the superalloy exhibited outer Ni(Co) oxide and inner Cr2O3 scales, with Cr–S layers at the interfaces. Massive spallation of the corrosion layers occurred repeatedly for the superalloy, but not at all for Cr2AlC. This indicates some potential for Cr2AlC as LTHC-resistant coatings for superalloys

Low temperature hot corrosion screening of single crystal superalloys

Single crystal superalloys were screened in Type II molten (Na,K)-sulfate hot corrosion re-coat tests in air +300 ppm SO2 at 700 °C. They exhibited large 20–40 mg/cm2 weight changes, repeated spallation, and non-protective, 25–50 μm thick corrosion layers after 300 h of testing. Scale cross sections revealed dual outer Ni(Co)O and inner Al(Cr)S-rich corrosion layers. This chemical differentiation was partially consistent with previous models of oxide fluxing, alloy sulfidation, NiO micro-channel diffusion, and synergistic dissolution mechanisms. Broad shallow pits or uniform attack morphologies were consistent with prior studies performed in high >100 ppm pSO2 environments. Higher Mo experimental alloys trended toward more degradation, producing 100 μm thick scales with distinct Al(Cr)S-rich inner layers or 500 μm thick NiO. The aggressive behavior in these environments supports the need for LTHC-resistant coatings for single crystal superalloys

On the magnitude of spheres, surfaces and other homogeneous spaces

In this paper we define the magnitude of metric spaces using measures rather than finite subsets as had been done previously and show that this agrees with earlier work with Leinster in arXiv:0908.1582. An explicit formula for the magnitude of an n-sphere with its intrinsic metric is given. For an arbitrary homogeneous Riemannian manifold the leading terms of the asymptotic expansion of the magnitude are calculated and expressed in terms of the volume and total scalar curvature of the manifold. In the particular case of a homogeneous surface the form of the asymptotics can be given exactly up to vanishing terms and this involves just the area and Euler characteristic in the way conjectured for subsets of Euclidean space in previous work.Comment: 21 pages. Main change from v1: details added to proof of Theorem