How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly

An HIV epidemic is ready to emerge in the Philippines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The state of the HIV epidemic in the Philippines has been described as "low and slow", which is in stark contrast to many other countries in the region. A review of the conditions for HIV spread in the Philippines is necessary.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the current epidemiology, trends in behaviour and public health response in the Philippines to identify factors that could account for the current HIV epidemic, as well as to review conditions that may be of concern for facilitating an emerging epidemic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The past control of HIV in the Philippines cannot be attributed to any single factor, nor is it necessarily a result of the actions of the Filipino government or other stakeholders. Likely reasons for the epidemic's slow development include: the country's geography is complicated; injecting drug use is relatively uncommon; a culture of sexual conservatism exists; sex workers tend to have few clients; anal sex is relatively uncommon; and circumcision rates are relatively high.</p> <p>In contrast, there are numerous factors suggesting that HIV is increasing and ready to emerge at high rates, including: the lowest documented rates of condom use in Asia; increasing casual sexual activity; returning overseas Filipino workers from high-prevalence settings; widespread misconceptions about HIV/AIDS; and high needle-sharing rates among injecting drug users.</p> <p>There was a three-fold increase in the rate of HIV diagnoses in the Philippines between 2003 and 2008, and this has continued over the past year. HIV diagnoses rates have noticeably increased among men, particularly among bisexual and homosexual men (114% and 214% respective increases over 2003-2008). The average age of diagnosis has also significantly decreased, from approximately 36 to 29 years.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Young adults, men who have sex with men, commercial sex workers, injecting drug users, overseas Filipino workers, and the sexual partners of people in these groups are particularly vulnerable to HIV infection. There is no guarantee that a large HIV epidemic will be avoided in the near future. Indeed, an expanding HIV epidemic is likely to be only a matter of time as the components for such an epidemic are already present in the Philippines.</p

Uptake of home-based voluntary HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Improving access to HIV testing is a key priority in scaling up HIV treatment and prevention services. Home-based voluntary counselling and testing (HBT) as an approach to delivering wide-scale HIV testing is explored here

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Debate and Commentary-Will Early Infection Compromise Treatment-as-Prevention Strategies?

Universal HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy for infected individuals has been proposed as a way of reducing the transmission of HIV and thereby bringing the HIV epidemic under control. It is unclear whether transmission during early HIV infection—before individuals are likely to have been diagnosed with HIV and started on antiretroviral therapy—will compromise the effectiveness of treatment as prevention. This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser

Addressing social issues in a universal HIV test and treat intervention trial (ANRS 12249 TasP) in South Africa: methods for appraisal

Background: The Universal HIV Test and Treat (UTT) strategy represents a challenge for science, but is also a challenge for individuals and societies. Are repeated offers of provider-initiated HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) socially-acceptable and can these become normalized over time? Can UTT be implemented without potentially adding to individual and community stigma, or threatening individual rights? What are the social, cultural and economic implications of UTT for households and communities? And can UTT be implemented within capacity constraints and other threats to the overall provision of HIV services? The answers to these research questions will be critical for routine implementation of UTT strategies. Methods/design: A social science research programme is nested within the ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention (TasP) cluster-randomised trial in rural South Africa. The programme aims to inform understanding of the (i) social, economic and environmental factors affecting uptake of services at each step of the continuum of HIV prevention, treatment and care and (ii) the causal impacts of the TasP intervention package on social and economic factors at the individual, household, community and health system level. We describe a multidisciplinary, multi-level, mixed-method research protocol that includes individual, household, community and clinic surveys, and combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Discussion: The UTT strategy is changing the overall approach to HIV prevention, treatment and care, and substantial social consequences may be anticipated, such as changes in social representations of HIV transmission, prevention, HIV testing and ART use, as well as changes in individual perceptions and behaviours in terms of uptake and frequency of HIV testing and ART initiation at high CD4. Triangulation of social science studies within the ANRS 12249 TasP trial will provide comprehensive insights into the acceptability and feasibility of the TasP intervention package at individual, community, patient and health system level, to complement the trial's clinical and epidemiological outcomes. It will also increase understanding of the causal impacts of UTT on social and economic outcomes, which will be critical for the long-term sustainability and routine UTT implementation. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01509508; South African Trial Register: DOH-27-0512-3974

Modeling the Population-Level Effects of Male Circumcision as an HIV-Preventive Measure: A Gendered Perspective

BACKGROUND: Evidence from biological, epidemiological, and controlled intervention studies has demonstrated that male circumcision (MC) protects males from HIV infection, and MC is now advocated as a public-health intervention against HIV. MC provides direct protection only to men, but is expected to provide indirect protection to women at risk of acquiring HIV from heterosexual transmission. How such indirect protection interacts with the possibility that MC campaigns will lead to behavior changes, however, is not yet well understood. Our objective here is to investigate the link between individual-level effects of MC campaigns and long-term population-level outcomes resulting from disease dynamics, looking at both genders separately, over a broad range of parameters. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use simple mathematical models of heterosexual transmission to investigate the potential effects of a circumcision scale-up, combined with possible associated behavioral disinhibition. We examine patterns in expected long-term prevalence using a simple equilibrium model based on transmission factors, and validate our results with ODE-based simulations, focusing on the link between effects on females and those on males.We find that the long-term population-level effects on females and males are not strongly linked: there are many possible ways in which an intervention which reduces prevalence in males might nonetheless increase prevalence in females. CONCLUSIONS: Since an intervention that reduces long-term male prevalence could nonetheless increase long-term female prevalence, MC campaigns should explicitly consider both the short-term and long-term effects of MC interventions on females. Our findings strongly underline the importance of pairing MC programs with education, support programs and HIV testing and counseling, together with other prevention measures

Programmatic Evaluation of a Combined Antigen and Antibody Test for Rapid HIV Diagnosis in a Community and Sexual Health Clinic Screening Programme

Background A substantial proportion of HIV-infected individuals in the UK are unaware of their status and late presentations continue, especially in low prevalence areas. Fourth generation antigen/antibody rapid test kits could facilitate earlier diagnosis of HIV in non-clinical settings but lack data on performance under programmatic conditions. Methods and Findings We evaluated the performance of Determine HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab Combo Test (Determine Combo), a rapid test with indicators for both HIV antibodies and p24 antigen, in participants recruited from community outreach and hospital-based sexual health clinics. HIV infection was confirmed using laboratory enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA), Line Immuno Assay (LIA) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In total, 953 people underwent HIV testing. HIV antibody (Ab) prevalence was 1.8% (17/953). Four false positive rapid tests were identified: two antibody and two p24 antigen (Ag) reactions. Of participants diagnosed as HIV Ab positive, 2/17 (12%) were recent seroconverters based on clinical history and HIV antibody avidity test results. However, none of these were detected by the p24 antigen component of the rapid test kit. There were no other true positive p24 Ag tests. Conclusion These data lend support to an increasing body of evidence suggesting that 4th generation rapid HIV tests have little additional benefit over 3rd generation HIV kits for routine screening in low prevalence settings and have high rates of false positives. In order to optimally combine community-based case-finding among hard-to-reach groups with reliable and early diagnosis 3rd generation kits should be primarily used with laboratory testing of individuals thought to be at risk of acute HIV infection. A more reliable point of care diagnostic is required for the accurate detection of acute HIV infection under programmatic conditions

Predictors of linkage to care following community-based HIV counseling and testing in rural Kenya

Despite innovations in HIV counseling and testing (HCT), important gaps remain in understanding linkage to care. We followed a cohort diagnosed with HIV through a community-based HCT campaign that trained persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) as navigators. Individual, interpersonal, and institutional predictors of linkage were assessed using survival analysis of self-reported time to enrollment. Of 483 persons consenting to follow-up, 305 (63.2%) enrolled in HIV care within 3 months. Proportions linking to care were similar across sexes, barring a sub-sample of men aged 18–25 years who were highly unlikely to enroll. Men were more likely to enroll if they had disclosed to their spouse, and women if they had disclosed to family. Women who anticipated violence or relationship breakup were less likely to link to care. Enrolment rates were significantly higher among participants receiving a PLHA visit, suggesting that a navigator approach may improve linkage from community-based HCT campaigns.Vestergaard Frandse

Consolidating emerging evidence surrounding HIVST and HIVSS: A rapid systematic mapping protocol

BACKGROUND: HIV self-testing (HIVST) is becoming popular with policy makers and commissioners globally, with a key aim of expanding access through reducing barriers to testing for individuals at risk of HIV infection. HIV self-sampling (HIVSS) was available previously to self-testing but was confined mainly to the USA and the UK. It remains to be seen whether the momentum behind HIVST will also energise efforts to expand HIVSS. Recent years have seen a rapid growth in the type of evidence related to these interventions as well as several systematic reviews. The vast majority of this evidence relates to acceptability as well as values and preferences, although new types of evidence are emerging. This systematic map aims to consolidate all emerging evidence related to HIVST and HIVSS to respond to this rapidly changing area. METHODS: We will systematically search databases and the abstracts of five conferences from 2006 to the present date, with monthly-automated database searches. Searches will combine key terms relating to HIV (e.g. HIV, AIDS, human immune-deficiency syndrome) with terms related to self-testing (e.g. home-test, self-test, mail-test, home dried blood spot test). Abstracts will be reviewed against inclusion criteria in duplicate. Data will be manually extracted through a standard form and then entered to an open access relational map (HIVST.org). When new and sufficient evidence emerges which addresses existing knowledge gaps, we will complete a review on a relevant topic. DISCUSSION: This innovative approach will allow rapid cataloguing, documenting and dissemination of new evidence and key findings as they emerge into the public domain. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: This protocol has not been registered with PROSPERO as they do not register systematic maps