How Are We Doing on Brexit?

Understandably we have heard little recently from Remainers or the second referendum brigade. As the football fans chant “they’ve all gone quiet over there”. Right from 10pm on election night when an accurate forecast announced Boris Johnson’s stunning victory the opponents of Brexit have been too shocked to say much

Will the Virus Blow Brexit Off-Course?

Rumours that the Brexit trade negotiations will stall and ending the Transition may be delayed have accompanied escalation in the virus crisis. This article reviews the evidence on the progression of the virus and its economic consequences and concludes with hope that a return to normality in the second half of the year will allow Brexit negotiations to proceed on-course

How bad will Brexit really be for the UK?

Long-term forecasts claiming that leaving the EU with no deal on trade would be economically disastrous undermine the UK's optimal negotiating strategy, writes Graham Gudgin (Policy Exchange). He points out significant flaws in such forecasts and shows why the estimates they table cannot be accepted as accurate. The great majority of the economic forecasts have concluded that Brexit will damage the ..

Brexit: A Story of Tall Stories

A recent, rather polite, public debate on Brexit brought several issues to the fore. Professor Robert Tombs a highly respected Cambridge University historian, argued initially in the Financial Times that Project Fear ‘talked up disaster flamboyantly’

When Can We Get Back to Work?

Much attention is currently focussed on when the lockdown can be ended, the economy returned to normality and the UK to leave the transition as planned. This article assesses the evidence and suggests mid-May as a possible date to begin a return to normality

A Nation Once Again

When the UK finally leaves the main institutions of the EU at the end of December its departure will have taken not much less than the length of the second world war. History will surely judge it little short of a fiasco that disengagement should have taken so long. Much of the problem lay in the EU’s refusal to even begin negotiations on a free trade agreement until the UK had left the political union

The NI Protocol. Fraying at the Edges or Beginning to Collapse?

The signs are not good for the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Collapse is in the air but of course the EU wants to maintain an evolving fiction that the UK’s legal obligations will be fully realized once a few tweaks are negotiated to make trade flow more easily across the Irish Sea border. Meanwhile, the UK has been on a ‘go slow’ in implementing the Protocol ever since it came into force at the start of 2021. A unilateral grace period was imposed by Lord Frost to suspend EU checks of food products and a ban on imports of chilled meat. The EU took legal action but with not much to gain in practice little has subsequently been heard of the legal case. Further grace periods were agreed by the EU in mid-2021 to avoid the threat of further unilateral action

Brexit looks Safe for the Time Being

In the second of our election prediction briefings we observe that the latest poll of polls show a continuing Conservative lead over Labour of 11 points. Using our elections model we predict that this could lead to an 87-seat Tory majority. However Labour support continues to rise, probably due to the tactical voting intentions of LibDem supporters. The election outcome will depend on far this trend goes

Who Will Win the 2019 General Election?

In one sense the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign achieved their repeat vote on Brexit. This is not in the form of the desired second referendum but in yet another general election. For Leavers the circumstances of this vote are favourable