Foreign exchange markets in south-east Asia 1990-2004: An empirical analysis of spillovers during crisis and non-crisis periods

The East Asian crisis of 1997 sparked an extensive literature in an effort to explain the causes and spread of heightened foreign exchange (FX) market pressures in the region. In this paper we model FX movements and calculate spillover effects covering the extended period between 1990 and 2004. Using Markov switching vector autoregressions, we find substantial evidence that FX correlations vary across crisis and non-crisis states, a result that bears implications for international portfolio diversification and reserve pooling. Contagion effects are also present during crises. Finally, we gauge the ability of stock market indices to forecast time-varying transition probabilities and discover positive resultsEast Asia, Currency Crisis

Foreign Exchange Pressures in Latin America: Does Debt Matter?

Latin American countries have been in the eye of economic and ¯nancial storms several times in recent years. Advice from the International Monetary Fund has consistently highlighted the need for sound fiscal policies and lower debt levels. But is public debt relevant? Following a brief discussion of the theoretical issues involved, this paper examines empirically the relationship between public indebtedness and pressures in the foreign exchange market. Alternative measures are used to capture the latter and the analysis controls for a de facto classi¯cation of exchange rate regimes. Estimations of static and dynamic panels for 28 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries report substantial fiscal effects.currency crises, public debt, latin america

Once Bitten: The Effect of IMF Programs on Subsequent Reserve Behaviour

Traditional models have encountered problems in explaining the ac- cumulation of international reserves, particularly in Asia, in the period since the late 1990s. One suggestion has been that countries have sought to self insure against future crises, either because of a perceived increase in the cost of crises or because of the perceived conditionality costs of using IMF credits. This paper others an empirical investigation of these ideas, disaggregating across regions and across IMF facilities. Using both static and dynamic regression techniques we find that IMF pro- grams have had a significant positive effect on subsequent reserve accu- mulation, allowing for other determinants, and that this effect endures over time. We also find that the effect differs between Latin America and Asia, and that it is not simply a phenomenon that is associated with the Asian crisis of 1997/98. The paper goes on to discuss the implications for the design of policy and for the reform of the IMF.International Reserves, IMF

Revisiting Mrs. Machlup's Wardrobe: The Accumulation of International Reserves, 1992-2001

international reserves

Promoting Group Justice: Fiscal Policies in Post-Conflict Countries

In the aftermath of violent conflict, governments have an opportunity to address fundamental inequalities between internal groups. As taxation and expenditure policies are developed to rebuild a functional domestic economy and infrastructure, policies can be designed to lessen divisions and promote equity.The authors assert that good data about the status quo on inequality in a country is the first step to addressing it through policy. They then discuss some options for formulating a tax code that addresses distributional issues and increases progressivity. Expenditure planning can also be designed to help create equity in income and non-income resources, such as public services, employment, health and education. The role of aid donors is discussed, particularly as a source of successful strategies gleaned from other post-conflict countries.This study is part of a series on Public Finance in Post-Conflict Environments, published jointly by PERI and New York University's Center on International Cooperation.inequality; horizontal inequality; post-conflict economies; fiscal policies; taxation incidence; expenditure incidence

Is There a Beijing Consensus on International Macroeconomic Policy

Some commentators have claimed that there is a growing Beijing Consensus among emerging and developing economies concerning the merits of ChinaÕs economic policies. Within an analytical framework provided by the well known international trilemma, this paper investigates the empirical evidence concerning this claim with specific reference to the adoption of international macroeconomic policies. We document ChinaÕs high degree of exchange rate stability and monetary independence and low degree of financial openness. We then find that there are substantial differences between what China does and what is done in other emerging and developing economies. While we discover some regional and inter-temporal variations, there seems to be little or no support for the existence of a Beijing Consensus on international macroeconomic pol- icy. The proximity of ChinaÕs policies to those in the rest of the developing world may increase in the future; but this is may reflect changes in China rather than elsewhere.Trilemma, China

The Viability of Economic Reform Programs Supported by the International Financial Institutions

In seeking to make programs of economic reform supported by the IFIs more successful it is important to ensure that they are viable. Will governments be persuaded to participate? Will they complete the programs they negotiate? And will the IFIs be prepared to provide the resources? This paper formally analyses the factors influencing viability. It examines the constraints on participation and the need for incentive compatibility. The analysis identifies the threats to viability and the direction that reform should take. It places the effectiveness of programs firmly within a political economy framework and extends recent theories of program implementation by examining participation from the viewpoint of both the governments that demand assistance and the IFIs that supply it.

What Determines the Implementation of IMF Programs?

For many years analysis of IMF conditionality overlooked the extent to which it was implemented. However, more recently increasing attention has been paid to implementation. Theoretical contributions have focused on the importance of special interest groups, but empirical evidence has failed to provide compelling support for the theory. Indeed, empirical studies have reported mixed results that sometimes seem to be conflicting. This paper identifies a range of economic, political and institutional factors that may, in principle, influence implementation. Using various measures of implementation, it then tests an econometric model designed to capture these influences over 1992-2004 exploiting improved sources of data. The results suggest that significant determinants of implementation are trade openness, the existence of veto players and the amount of resources committed by the Fund. The paper offers an interpretation of the results and discusses the implications for policy.IMF, Implementation

Trilemma Stability and International Macroeconomic Archetypes in Developing Economies

In this paper, we examine the stability of international macroeconomic policies of developing countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. We use the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to construct a new, univariate measure of inter- national macroeconomic policy stability, and to characterize international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, we use the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty. Using these measures, we find that the greatest international macroeconomic stability among developing economies exists where there are capital controls and limited exchange rate flexibility. The least stable policies occur in the economies with flexible exchange rates and open financial markets. We also find that official holdings of foreign exchange re- serves seem to be weakly linked to greater policy stability, and their link is further weakened where financial markets are open.Trilemma, Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes, International Reserves, Financial Openness, Fear of Floating, Monetary Sovereignty