Inference with Linear Equality and Inequality Constraints Using R: The Package ic.infer

In linear models and multivariate normal situations, prior information in linear inequality form may be encountered, or linear inequality hypotheses may be subjected to statistical tests. R package ic.infer has been developed to support inequality-constrained estimation and testing for such situations. This article gives an overview of the principles underlying inequality-constrained inference that are far less well-known than methods for unconstrained or equality-constrained models, and describes their implementation in the package.

Generalized resolution for orthogonal arrays

The generalized word length pattern of an orthogonal array allows a ranking of orthogonal arrays in terms of the generalized minimum aberration criterion (Xu and Wu [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1066-1077]). We provide a statistical interpretation for the number of shortest words of an orthogonal array in terms of sums of $R^2$ values (based on orthogonal coding) or sums of squared canonical correlations (based on arbitrary coding). Directly related to these results, we derive two versions of generalized resolution for qualitative factors, both of which are generalizations of the generalized resolution by Deng and Tang [Statist. Sinica 9 (1999) 1071-1082] and Tang and Deng [Ann. Statist. 27 (1999) 1914-1926]. We provide a sufficient condition for one of these to attain its upper bound, and we provide explicit upper bounds for two classes of symmetric designs. Factor-wise generalized resolution values provide useful additional detail.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1205 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Multilevel Modeling Using R

Abstracts not available for BookReview

The R Primer

Abstracts not available for BookReview

Optimal Experimental Design with R

Abstracts not available for BookReview

The expanding party universe: Patterns of partisan engagement in Australia and the United Kingdom

Although membership is declining, parties continue to perform roles central to democratic governance in modern societies. Given this seeming paradox, we suggest that partisan identification, in complementing studies of formal membership, is a promising way of assessing the strength of parties’ democratic linkage. Using data from an original survey of voters in Australia and the United Kingdom, we analyse the participatory and demographic profiles of party supporters. We show that there are significant differences between supporters and those not committed to any party, as well as between supporters based on the strength of their party identification, substantiating the idea that parties can be conceptualized as a series of concentric circles of increasing engagement but declining representativeness. Stronger supporters are more likely to engage with parties online, volunteer and donate, but are older, more likely to be male and less likely to be foreign-born. Our findings have important implications for democratic practice as parties seek to expand and rejuvenate their networks of affiliates

Online Disinformation Predicts Inaccurate Beliefs About Election Fairness Among Both Winners and Losers

Electoral disinformation is feared to variously undermine democratic trust by inflaming incorrect negative beliefs about the fairness of elections, or to shore up dictators by creating falsely positive ones. Recent studies of political misperceptions, however, suggest that disinformation has at best minimal effects on beliefs. In this article, we investigate the drivers of public perceptions and misperceptions of election fairness. We build on theories of rational belief updating and motivated reasoning, and link public opinion data from 82 national elections with expert survey data on disinformation and de facto electoral integrity. We show that, overall, people arrive at largely accurate perceptions, but that disinformation campaigns are indeed associated with less accurate and more polarized beliefs about election fairness. This contributes a cross-nationally comparative perspective to studies of (dis)information processing and belief updating, as well as attitude formation and trust surrounding highly salient political institutions such as elections.Es wird befürchtet, dass Desinformation bei Wahlen das demokratische Vertrauen untergräbt, indem sie falsche negative Überzeugungen über die Fairness von Wahlen schürt. Neuere Studien über politische Fehleinschätzungen deuten jedoch darauf hin, dass Desinformation bestenfalls minimale Auswirkungen auf die Überzeugungen hat. In diesem Artikel untersuchen die Autor*innen die Triebkräfte der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung und Fehlwahrnehmung der Fairness von Wahlen