Sinn und Unsinn von Quoten auf Basis von preisbereinigten Werten

A major change of the 2005 revision of German national accounts is the introduction of a new price adjustment method. The former fixed price base (last 1995 prices) has been replaced by an annually changing price base (previous year´s prices) with chain linking. But the chain-linked levels in absolute terms (billion Euro) are not additive. The sum of chain-linked sub aggregates (e.g. real gross value added by industries) differs from the value of the chain-linked total aggregate (e.g. real GDP). Thus it is no longer possible to calculate time series of ratios based on deflated values. Economic analysis of structural change or of the inter-sector division of labor thus loses a useful complementary measurement tool.

Wächst die deutsche Industrie nur durch den Export?

Die deutsche Wirtschaftsstruktur mit ihrem relativ hohen Industriegewicht und der damit einhergehenden Weltmarktorientierung stehen derzeit in der Kritik. Auf Basis von Wachstumsbeiträgen und der Input-Output-Rechnung lässt sich zeigen, wie die Wertschöpfung ausgewählter industrieller Güterbereiche durch die heimische Endnachfrage, die Vorleistungen und den Außenbeitrag erklärt werden kann. Im Ergebnis hat - anders als zuweilen behauptet - nicht nur der Außenhandel das Wachstum der Wertschöpfung wichtiger Produktgruppen angetrieben, sondern auch die steigende Inlandsnachfrage auf der Vorleistungs- und Endverbrauchsebene. Bei Maschinen und Chemieprodukten dominiert zwar der Außenbeitrag. Dies erklärt sich aber vor allem aus dem globalen Investitionsboom und weniger aus den Ausfuhren in konsumorientierte Staaten mit Leistungsbilanzdefiziten. Mit diesem Konzept kann auch der weitgehend konstante Anteil der Industriegüter an der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfung erklärt werden. -- The high share of manufacturing and the strong export orientation of Germany's economy are presently drawing fire by some critics. A concept of growth contributions based on input-output statistics explains to which extent final domestic demand, inputs and net exports contribute to the growth of value added of selected industrial product groups. Contrary to popular allegations, it shows that, in general, net exports are only one growth driver for major product groups. The others are domestic demand of inputs and of final consumption and investment. While the influence of net exports dominates for machinery and chemical products, this is largely a result of the global investment boom rather than of exports to consumption-oriented countries with large current account deficits. The concept also explains the principally constant share of industrial goods in total value added in Germany.

Gab es Überinvestitionen im Vorfeld der Großen Depression?

'After a brief survey of the relationship between investment and business cycles the article analyzes whether there was macro-economic overinvestment in the second half of the 1920s in the U.S. and in Germany. Based on different indicators no empirical evidence for excessive investment in machinery and equipment as well as in buildings in the wake of the Great Depression is found.' (author's abstract

Inflation is not an Effective Remedy for High Public Debt Ratio

Abstract Economies around the world are facing high price increases. Inflation affects government budgets as well as the sustainability of public debt. How and to what extent is the public debt ratio affected by higher inflation rates? High inflation is not a lasting remedy for a high public debt ratio. Only under very specific conditions — and by simultaneously ignoring the manifold knock-on effects of inflation — does a higher inflation rate bring about a decline in the government debt ratio. In the longer term, it may be dangerous if inflation expectations are de-anchored and interest rates rise for a prolonged time so that debt sustainability is ultimately jeopardised