Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power

In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure

Polyhedral Predictive Regions For Power System Applications

Despite substantial improvement in the development of forecasting approaches, conditional and dynamic uncertainty estimates ought to be accommodated in decision-making in power system operation and market, in order to yield either cost-optimal decisions in expectation, or decision with probabilistic guarantees. The representation of uncertainty serves as an interface between forecasting and decision-making problems, with different approaches handling various objects and their parameterization as input. Following substantial developments based on scenario-based stochastic methods, robust and chance-constrained optimization approaches have gained increasing attention. These often rely on polyhedra as a representation of the convex envelope of uncertainty. In the work, we aim to bridge the gap between the probabilistic forecasting literature and such optimization approaches by generating forecasts in the form of polyhedra with probabilistic guarantees. For that, we see polyhedra as parameterized objects under alternative definitions (under $L_1$ and $L_\infty$ norms), the parameters of which may be modelled and predicted. We additionally discuss assessing the predictive skill of such multivariate probabilistic forecasts. An application and related empirical investigation results allow us to verify probabilistic calibration and predictive skills of our polyhedra.Comment: 8 page

Ellipsoidal Prediction Regions for Multivariate Uncertainty Characterization

While substantial advances are observed in probabilistic forecasting for power system operation and electricity market applications, most approaches are still developed in a univariate framework. This prevents from informing about the interdependence structure among locations, lead times and variables of interest. Such dependencies are key in a large share of operational problems involving renewable power generation, load and electricity prices for instance. The few methods that account for dependencies translate to sampling scenarios based on given marginals and dependence structures. However, for classes of decision-making problems based on robust, interval chance-constrained optimization, necessary inputs take the form of polyhedra or ellipsoids. Consequently, we propose a systematic framework to readily generate and evaluate ellipsoidal prediction regions, with predefined probability and minimum volume. A skill score is proposed for quantitative assessment of the quality of prediction ellipsoids. A set of experiments is used to illustrate the discrimination ability of the proposed scoring rule for misspecification of ellipsoidal prediction regions. Application results based on three datasets with wind, PV power and electricity prices, allow us to assess the skill of the resulting ellipsoidal prediction regions, in terms of calibration, sharpness and overall skill.Comment: 8 pages, 7 Figures, Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Power System

Ban On Plastic Bags Usage: Is It A Right Move? An Empirical Study On Consumer Perception And Practice

Penggunaan beg plastik telah menyebabkan manfaat dan kerugian dalam kehidupan kita sehari-hari. The usage of plastic bag has causes both convenience and inconvenience in our daily lives

Neural Networks: A Diagnostic Tool for Gastric Electrical Uncoupling?

Neural Networks have been successfully employed in different biomedical settings. They have been useful for feature extractions from images and biomedical data in a variety of diagnostic applications. In this paper, they are applied as a diagnostic tool for classifying different levels of gastric electrical uncoupling in controlled acute experiments on dogs. Data was collected from 16 dogs using six bipolar electrodes inserted into the serosa of the antral wall. Each dog underwent three recordings under different conditions: (1) basal state, (2) mild surgically-induced uncoupling, and (3) severe surgically-induced uncoupling. For each condition half-hour recordings were made. The neural network was implemented according to the Learning Vector Quantization model. This is a supervised learning model of the Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps. Majority of the recordings collected from the dogs were used for network training. Remaining recordings served as a testing tool to examine the validity of the training procedure. Approximately 90% of the dogs from the neural network training set were classified properly. However, only 31% of the dogs not included in the training process were accurately diagnosed. The poor neural-network based diagnosis of recordings that did not participate in the training process might have been caused by inappropriate representation of input data. Previous research has suggested characterizing signals according to certain features of the recorded data. This method, if employed, would reduce the noise and possibly improve the diagnostic abilities of the neural network

Cytomegalovirus retinitis mimicking intraocular lymphoma

We present a case of an unusual retinal infiltrate requiring retinal biopsy for definitive diagnosis. A 62-year-old man with treated lymphoma presented with decreased vision in the right eye associated with a white retinal lesion, which extended inferonasally from an edematous disc. Intraocular lymphoma was considered as a diagnosis; thus, the patient was managed with vitrectomy and retinal biopsy. Cytological analysis of the vitreous aspirate could not rule out a lymphoproliferative disorder. The microbial analysis was negative. Histology of the lesion showed extensive necrosis and large cells with prominent nucleoli. To rule out lymphoma, a battery of immunostains was performed and all were negative. However the limited amount of tissue was exhausted in the process. Subsequently, a hematoxylin and eosin (H/E) slide was destained, on which a CMV immunostain was performed. This revealed positivity in the nuclei and intranuclear inclusions within the large atypical cells. A diagnosis of CMV retinitis was made. Retinal biopsy may provide a definitive diagnosis and direct patient care toward intravenous gancyclovir in the case of CMV or toward radiation and chemotherapy for intraocular lymphoma. When faced with a limited amount of tissue, destaining regular H/E slides is a possible avenue to performing additional immunohistochemical studies