Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods

T-helper 1 versus T-helper 2 lymphocyte immunodysregulation is the central factor in genesis of Burkitt lymphoma: hypothesis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic has challenged our previous understanding of endemic Burkitt's lymphoma. Despite the strong association of Burkitt's lymphoma and HIV infection in the Developed world, and against previous postulations that the cancer is due to immunosupression among African children, the HIV epidemic in the Malaria belt has not been associated with a corresponding increase in incidence of childhood Burkitt's lymphoma. Even outside the context of HIV infection, there is substantial evidence for a strong but skewed immune response towards a TH2 response in genesis of Burkitt lymphoma.</p> <p>Presentation of the hypothesis</p> <p>Rather than a global and/or profound immunosupression, the final common pathway in genesis of Burkitt's lymphoma is the dysregulation of the immune response towards a TH2 response dominated by B-lymphocytes, and the concomitant suppression of the TH1 cell-mediated immune surveillance, driven by various viral/parasitic/bacterial infections.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>Case control studies comparing TH2 and TH1 immune responses in Burkitt lymphoma of different etiological types (sporadic, HIV-related, endemic and post-transplant) to demonstrate significant dominance of TH2 immune response in presence of poor CMI response as a common factor. Immunological profiling to evaluate differences between immune states that are associated (such as recurrent Malaria infection) and those that are not associated (such as severe protein-energy malnutrition) with Burkitt lymphoma. Prospective cohorts profiling chronology of immunological events leading to Burkitt lymphoma in children with EBV infection.</p> <p>Implications of the hypothesis</p> <p>The dysregulation of the immune response may be the missing link in our understanding of Burkitt lymphomagenesis. This will provide possibilities for determination of risk and for control of development of malignancy in individuals/populations exposed to the relevant infections.</p

Pathogen- and Host-Directed Antileishmanial Effects Mediated by Polyhexanide (PHMB)

BACKGROUND:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania. CL causes enormous suffering in many countries worldwide. There is no licensed vaccine against CL, and the chemotherapy options show limited efficacy and high toxicity. Localization of the parasites inside host cells is a barrier to most standard chemo- and immune-based interventions. Hence, novel drugs, which are safe, effective and readily accessible to third-world countries and/or drug delivery technologies for effective CL treatments are desperately needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Here we evaluated the antileishmanial properties and delivery potential of polyhexamethylene biguanide (PHMB; polyhexanide), a widely used antimicrobial and wound antiseptic, in the Leishmania model. PHMB showed an inherent antileishmanial activity at submicromolar concentrations. Our data revealed that PHMB kills Leishmania major (L. major) via a dual mechanism involving disruption of membrane integrity and selective chromosome condensation and damage. PHMB's DNA binding and host cell entry properties were further exploited to improve the delivery and immunomodulatory activities of unmethylated cytosine-phosphate-guanine oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG ODN). PHMB spontaneously bound CpG ODN, forming stable nanopolyplexes that enhanced uptake of CpG ODN, potentiated antimicrobial killing and reduced host cell toxicity of PHMB. CONCLUSIONS:Given its low cost and long history of safe topical use, PHMB holds promise as a drug for CL therapy and delivery vehicle for nucleic acid immunomodulators

Evidence for genetic variance in resistance to tuberculosis in Great Britain and Irish Holstein-Friesian populations

peer-reviewedBackground: Here, we jointly summarise scientific evidence for genetic variation in resistance to infection with Mycobacterium bovis, the primary agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), provided by two recent and separate studies of Holstein-Friesian dairy cow populations in Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Methods: The studies quantified genetic variation within archived data from field and abattoir surveillance control programmes within each country. These data included results from the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT), abattoir inspection for TB lesions and laboratory confirmation of disease status. Threshold animal models were used to estimate variance components for responsiveness to the SICTT and abattoir confirmed M. bovis infection. The link functions between the observed 0/1 scale and the liability scale were the complementary log-log in the GB, and logit link function in the Irish population. Results and discussion: The estimated heritability of susceptibility to TB, as judged by responsiveness to the SICTT, was 0.16 (0.012) and 0.14 (0.025) in the GB and Irish populations, respectively. For abattoir or laboratory confirmation of infection, estimates were 0.18 (0.044) and 0.18 (0.041) from the GB and the Irish populations, respectively. Conclusions: Estimates were all significantly different from zero and indicate that exploitable variation exists among GB and Irish Holstein Friesian dairy cows for resistance to TB. Epidemiological analysis suggests that factors such as variation in exposure or imperfect sensitivity and specificity would have resulted in underestimation of the true values

P. falciparum and P. vivax Epitope-Focused VLPs Elicit Sterile Immunity to Blood Stage Infections

In order to design P. falciparum preerythrocytic vaccine candidates, a library of circumsporozoite (CS) T and B cell epitopes displayed on the woodchuck hepatitis virus core antigen (WHcAg) VLP platform was produced. To test the protective efficacy of the WHcAg-CS VLPs, hybrid CS P. berghei/P. falciparum (Pb/Pf) sporozoites were used to challenge immunized mice. VLPs carrying 1 or 2 different CS repeat B cell epitopes and 3 VLPs carrying different CS non-repeat B cell epitopes elicited high levels of anti-insert antibodies (Abs). Whereas, VLPs carrying CS repeat B cell epitopes conferred 98% protection of the liver against a 10,000 Pb/Pf sporozoite challenge, VLPs carrying the CS non-repeat B cell eptiopes were minimally-to-non-protective. One-to-three CS-specific CD4/CD8 T cell sites were also fused to VLPs, which primed CS-specific as well as WHcAg-specific T cells. However, a VLP carrying only the 3 T cell domains failed to protect against a sporozoite challenge, indicating a requirement for anti-CS repeat Abs. A VLP carrying 2 CS repeat B cell epitopes and 3 CS T cell sites in alum adjuvant elicited high titer anti-CS Abs (endpoint dilution titer \u3e1x106) and provided 80–100% protection against blood stage malaria. Using a similar strategy, VLPs were constructed carrying P. vivax CS repeat B cell epitopes (WHc-Pv-78), which elicited high levels of anti-CS Abs and conferred 99% protection of the liver against a 10,000 Pb/Pv sporozoite challenge and elicited sterile immunity to blood stage infection. These results indicate that immunization with epitope-focused VLPs carrying selected B and T cell epitopes from the P.falciparum and P. vivax CS proteins can elicit sterile immunity against blood stage malaria. Hybrid WHcAg-CS VLPs could provide the basis for a bivalent P. falciparum/P. vivax malaria vaccine

On the projection of future fire danger conditions with various instantaneous/mean-daily data sources

Fire danger indices are descriptors of fire potential in a large area, and combine a few variables that affect the initiation, spread and control of forest fires. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most widely used fire danger indices in the world, and it is built upon instantaneous values of temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity at noon, together with 24 hourly accumulated precipitation. However, the scarcity of appropriate data has motivated the use of daily mean values as surrogates of the instantaneous ones in several studies that aimed to assess the impact of global warming on fire. In this paper we test the sensitivity of FWI values to both instantaneous and daily mean values, analyzing their effect on mean seasonal fire danger (seasonal severity rating, SSR) and extreme fire danger conditions (90th percentile, FWI90, and FWI>30, FOT30), with a special focus on its influence in climate change impact studies. To this aim, we analyzed reanalysis and regional climate model (RCM) simulations, and compared the resulting instantaneous and daily mean versions both in the present climate and in a future scenario. In particular, we were interested in determining the effect of these datasets on the projected changes obtained for the mean and extreme seasonal fire danger conditions in future climate scenarios, as given by a RCM. Overall, our results warn against the use of daily mean data for the computation of present and future fire danger conditions. Daily mean data lead to systematic negative biases of fire danger calculations. Although the mean seasonal fire danger indices might be corrected to compensate for this bias, fire danger extremes (FWI90 and specially FOT30) cannot be reliably transformed to accommodate the spatial pattern and magnitude of their respective instantaneous versions, leading to inconsistent results when projected into the future. As a result, we advocate caution when using daily mean data and strongly recommend the application of the standard definition for its calculation as closely as possible. Threshold-dependent indices derived from FWI are not reliably represented by the daily mean version and thus can neither be applied for the estimation of future fire danger season length and severity, nor for the estimation of future extreme events.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 243888 (FUME Project). J.F. acknowledges nancial support from the Spanish R&D&I programme through grant CGL2010-22158-C02 (CORWES project). The ESCENA project (200800050084265) of the Spanish \Strategic action on energy and climate change" provided the WRF RCM simulation used in this study. We acknowledge three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator

Uncertainties in steric sea level change estimation during the satellite altimeter era: concepts and practices

This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However tracking these steric changes remains still a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community ‘recipes’ for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling, and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state

Early Adverse Events, HPA Activity and Rostral Anterior Cingulate Volume in MDD

Prior studies have independently reported associations between major depressive disorder (MDD), elevated cortisol concentrations, early adverse events and region-specific decreases in grey matter volume, but the relationships among these variables are unclear. In the present study, we sought to evaluate the relationships between grey matter volume, early adverse events and cortisol levels in MDD.Grey matter volume was compared between 19 controls and 19 individuals with MDD using voxel-based morphometry. A history of early adverse events was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Subjects also provided salivary cortisol samples. Depressed patients showed decreased grey matter volume in the rostral ACC as compared to controls. Rostral ACC volume was inversely correlated with both cortisol and early adverse events.These findings suggest a key relationship between ACC morphology, a history of early adverse events and circulating cortisol in the pathophysiology of MDD