El impacto de los caudales medioambientales en la satisfacción de la demanda de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático

RESUMENEl uso creciente del recurso hídrico para satisfacer las diferentes demandas de un sistema, muchas veces por encima de su disponibilidad hídrica, ha generado una reducción en el nivel de satisfacción de dichas demandas, así como una reducción en los caudales medioambientales necesarios para alcanzar el buen estado ecológico. A largo plazo, estos problemas pueden verse intensificados como consecuencia del cambio climático. La satisfacción de las demandas de un sistema sin afectar al medio ambiente es uno de los principales objetivos de una eficaz gestión del recurso hídrico. La consideración de unos requerimientos ambientales puede influir en la sensibilidad de un sistema en el momento de satisfacer adecuadamente las diferentes demandas. Este artículo se enfoca en evaluar dicha sensibilidad a largo plazo, mediante el uso de dos indicadores de eficiencia que permiten identificar los problemas de escasez de agua bajo diferentes escenarios de reducciones en las aportaciones. Los requerimientos ambientales se determinaron tomando en cuenta las distribuciones mensuales y anuales de las aportaciones para los diferentes escenarios futuros. Como resultado de aplicar la metodología a la cuenca del Guadalquivir, en España, se observa que los problemas de escasez de agua que actualmente padece la cuenca puedan verse intensificados bajo cambio climático, comprometiendo una adecuada satisfacción de las demandas de agua del sistema. Estos problemas podrían reducirse, e incluso eliminarse, si se consigue limitar el consumo de agua por debajo de la disponibilidad hídrica que presente la cuenca, especialmente en los recursos destinados a la agricultura.ABSTRACTThe increasing use of water resources in order to meet the different demands of a system, often above their water availability has led to inadequate attention to such demands, as well as, has generated a reduction in environmental flows needed to achieve good water status. In the long term, these problems may be intensified under climate change scenarios. An adequate attention of the system demands without affecting the environment is one of the main objectives of the water resources management. The consideration of the environmental flows can influence the sensitivity of a system when addressing the different demands. This paper focuses on assessing this sensitivity to long term by using two efficiency indicators, which ones allow to identify water scarcity problems under different scenarios of flows reduction. Environmental requirements are determined by taking into account the monthly and annual distributions of the flows for different future scenarios. The proposed methodology is applied to the Guadalquivir basin in Spain. The results show that the current water scarcity problems of the basin can be intensified when the environmental requirements are considered in the system. These problems could be reduced or even eliminated, if water consumption is limited below the water availability of the basin, especially in the resources for agriculture

Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results