We estimate a model to account for homicide cycles in Colombia, 1950-1999. The variables that together account for about eighty percent of the variation in murder cycles are the years of Colombia(s La Violencia period, the years of collusion between the two establishment parties (the National Front years), the inflation-adjusted trade balance and real social expenditure, both in per capita terms, and the size of Colombia(s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country.Latin America, Colombia, homicide cycles

Brauer, J

Gomez-Sorzano, A.G.

Research Papers in Economics

English

A Perverse Social Capital. Some Evidence from Colombia.

A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War.

a). Violence, Organized Crimes, and the Criminal Justice System in Colombia.

and others have made persuasive arguments according to which the educated and uneducated classes both engage in criminal and violent activity for the simple reason that crime pays well. Income and education are no longer linked, but income and crime are

Average annual incomes from crime have been variously estimated at up to $70,000 per person, a huge premium over Colombia’s per capita

b). A Comment,

Colombia: The Genocidal Democracy.

Decomposing Violence: Political Murder in Colombia,

Epidemiology of Violence in the Americas: The Case of Colombia,

For a history of Colombia see, e.g., Bushnell

Inseguridad, violencia y actividad económica.

Intriligator. “Nacro-Traffic and Guerrilla Warfare:

More Terrible than Death.

Private Irrigation Investment in Colombia: Effects of Violence,

The Making of Modern Colombia: A Nation In

The Political Economy of Violence: The WarSystem in Colombia.

There is some evidence that major perpetrators of violence B the military and paramilitary forces, the drug-traders, and the various guerrilla groups B act in semi-collusive fashion to keep the spoils of war going (Richani,

There is widespread agreement among analysts that Colombia’s violence is costly, both at the microeconomic level (e.g.,

Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide.

Violence, Psyche, and Social Capital,

We know from the African experience that natural-resource riches attract contestants (see Sambanis,

Homicide Cycles in Colombia