910 research outputs found
Trade Invoicing in the Accession Countries: Are They Suited to the Euro?
The accession countries to the euro area are increasingly binding their economic activity, external and internal, to the euro area countries. One aspect of this phenomenon concerns the currency invoicing of international trade transactions, where accession countries have reduced their use of the US dollar in invoicing international trade transactions. Theory predicts that the optimal invoicing choices for accession countries depend on the composition of goods in exports and imports and on the macroeconomic fluctuations of trade partners, both bearing on the role of herding and hedging considerations within exporter profitability. These considerations yield country-specific estimates about the degree of euro-denominated invoicing of exports. I find that the exporters of some accession countries, even in their trade transactions with the euro zone and other European Union countries, might be pricing too much of their trade in euros rather than in dollars, thus taking on excessive risk in international markets.
When Is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?
Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper: 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending; and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the United States. The pattern of response of claims on emerging markets to U.S. conditions differs across banks of different sizes and across emerging market regions. Moreover, unlike U.S. bank claims on industrialized countries, we find that claims on emerging markets are not highly sensitive to local country GDP and interest rates.
Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited
This paper predicts ex-ante the probability of currency crises end size of expected devaluations month by month for Mexico between 1980 and 1986 using a heterodox linear discrete time model of exchange rate crises. The forces contributing to speculative attacks on the Mexican peso include internal money creation, external credit shocks, and relative price shocks. The framework proves highly successful for generating forecasts of the probability of speculative attacks on the peso and for predicting lower bounds for post- collapse exchange rates using a range of assumptions about critical levels of central bank reserve floors. Simulation results suggest that reducing domestic credit growth, increasing the uncertainty surrounding this growth, and reducing the size and perhaps increasing the frequency of currency realignments might have greatly reduced the amount of currency speculation against the peso in some of the crisis periods between 1980 and 1986.
Financial sector FDI and host countries: new and old lessons
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the financial sectors of emerging economies soared during the 1990s, leaving many countries with banking sectors owned primarily by foreign institutions. While the implications of FDI into emerging markets are well documented, less clearly understood is how the host countries are affected by financial sector FDI specifically. An understanding of this relationship is crucial for countries formulating policy with respect to foreign banks. This article argues that many lessons learned from work on FDI into manufacturing and primary resource industries apply directly to host-country financial sectors. The author provides evidence on such themes as technology transfers, productivity spillovers, wage effects, macroeconomic growth, and fiscal policy to show that financial sector FDI into emerging markets generally has positive effects on the host countries. In banking and finance specifically, she argues that financial sector FDI can potentially strengthen institutional development through improvements to regulation and supervision.Investments, Foreign ; Emerging markets ; Banks and banking, Foreign ; International finance
Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets
We document the consequences of real exchange rate movements for the employment, hours, and hourly earnings of workers in manufacturing industries across individual states. Exchange rates have statistically significant wage and employment implications in these local labor markets. The importance and size of these dollar-induced effects vary considerably across industries and are more pronounced in some U.S. regions. In addition to the importance of exchange rate shocks, we confirm prior research results showing that relatively strong local conditions drive up wage in local industries, while anticipated future (positive) local shocks reduce current wages.
What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields
Economic announcements are an important source of information, containing news that spills over internationally across markets, affecting yields. An analysis of the U.S. and German sovereign bond markets finds that the largest moves in yields are associated with U.S. announcements on labor market conditions, real GDP growth, and consumer sentiment.Bond market ; Bond market - Germany ; International finance
Overview of the volume ; Special issue: lessons from recent crises in Asian and other emerging markets
Financial crises - Asia
The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment
The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements — pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.
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