Coherent frequentism

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior distribution. The closure of the set of expected losses corresponding to the dual frequentist posteriors constrains decisions without arbitrarily forcing optimization under all circumstances. This decision theory reduces to those that maximize expected utility when the pair of frequentist posteriors is induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when an automatic reduction rule is applied to the pair. In such cases, the resulting frequentist posterior is coherent in the sense that, as a probability distribution of the parameter of interest, it satisfies the axioms of the decision-theoretic and logic-theoretic systems typically cited in support of the Bayesian posterior. Unlike the p-value, the confidence level of an interval hypothesis derived from such a measure is suitable as an estimator of the indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges in sample-space probability to 1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise under general conditions.Comment: The confidence-measure theory of inference and decision is explicitly extended to vector parameters of interest. The derivation of upper and lower confidence levels from valid and nonconservative set estimators is formalize

Inference for bounded parameters

The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive discussion by statisticians. The primary focus however in [1] and the accompanying discussion is on the construction of a confidence interval. We argue that the likelihood function and $p$-value function provide a comprehensive presentation of the information available from the model and the data. This is illustrated for Gaussian and Poisson models with lower bounds for the mean parameter

Effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise following hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: a systematic review of clinical trials

Background: Physiotherapy has long been a routine component of patient rehabilitation following hip joint replacement. The purpose of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise after discharge from hospital on function, walking, range of motion, quality of life and muscle strength, for osteoarthritic patients following elective primary total hip arthroplasty. Methods: Design: Systematic review, using the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and the Quorom Statement. Database searches: AMED, CINAHL, EMBASE, KingsFund, MEDLINE, Cochrane library (Cochrane reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, DARE), PEDro, The Department of Health National Research Register. Handsearches: Physiotherapy, Physical Therapy, Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery (Britain) Conference Proceedings. No language restrictions were applied. Selection: Trials comparing physiotherapy exercise versus usual/standard care, or comparing two types of relevant exercise physiotherapy, following discharge from hospital after elective primary total hip replacement for osteoarthritis were reviewed. Outcomes: Functional activities of daily living, walking, quality of life, muscle strength and range of hip joint motion. Trial quality was extensively evaluated. Narrative synthesis plus meta-analytic summaries were performed to summarise the data. Results: 8 trials were identified. Trial quality was mixed. Generally poor trial quality, quantity and diversity prevented explanatory meta-analyses. The results were synthesised and meta-analytic summaries were used where possible to provide a formal summary of results. Results indicate that physiotherapy exercise after discharge following total hip replacement has the potential to benefit patients. Conclusion: Insufficient evidence exists to establish the effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise following primary hip replacement for osteoarthritis. Further well designed trials are required to determine the value of post discharge exercise following this increasingly common surgical procedure

Discriminant analysis of intermediate brain atrophy rates in longitudinal diagnosis of alzheimer's disease

Diagnosing Alzheimer's disease through MRI neuroimaging biomarkers has been used as a complementary marker for traditional clinical markers to improve diagnostic accuracy and also help in developing new pharmacotherapeutic trials. It has been revealed that longitudinal analysis of the whole brain atrophy has the power of discriminating Alzheimer's disease and elderly normal controls. In this work, effect of involving intermediate atrophy rates and impact of using uncorrelated principal components of these features instead of original ones on discriminating normal controls and Alzheimer's disease subjects, is inspected. In fact, linear discriminative analysis of atrophy rates is used to classify subjects into Alzheimer's disease and controls. Leave-one-out cross-validation has been adopted to evaluate the generalization rate of the classifier along with its memorization. Results show that incorporating uncorrelated version of intermediate features leads to the same memorization performance as the original ones but higher generalization rate. As a conclusion, it is revealed that in a longitudinal study, using intermediate MRI scans and transferring them to an uncorrelated feature space can improve diagnostic accuracy

Effects of the Higashi-Nihon Earthquake: Posttraumatic Stress, Psychological Changes, and Cortisol Levels of Survivors

On March 11, 2011, the Pacific side of Japan’s northeast was devastated by an earthquake and tsunami. For years, many researchers have been working on ways of examining the psychological effects of earthquakes on survivors in disaster areas who have experienced aftershocks, catastrophic fires, and other damage caused by the earthquake. The goal of this study is to examine scores on psychological measures and salivary cortisol level in these individuals both before and three months after the earthquake. The participants had been measured for these variables before the earthquake. After the earthquake, we carried out PTSD screening using CAPS for participants for another experiment, and then again conducted the aforementioned tests. We collected saliva samples from all survivors. Our results show that social relationship scores on the WHO-QOL26, negative mood scores of the WHO-SUBI, total GHQ score, POMS confusion scores, and CMI emotional status score after the earthquake showed scores indicating significantly decreased compared to before the earthquake. On the other hand, salivary cortisol levels after the earthquake was significantly increased compared to before the earthquake. Moreover, the result of a multiple regression analysis found that negative mood score on the WHO-SUBI and social relationship score on the WHO-QOL26 were significantly related to salivary cortisol levels. Our results thus demonstrate that several psychological stress induced by the earthquake was associated with an increase in salivary cortisol levels. These results show similar findings to previous study. We anticipate that this study will provide a better understanding of posttraumatic responses in the early stages of adaptation to the trauma and expand effective prevention strategies and countermeasures for PTSD

"Invisible burials" and fragmentation practices in Iron Age Europe:Excavations at the Monte Bernorio Necropolis (Northern Spain)

The scarcity of burial remains in large parts of Iron Age Europe, particularly in the Atlantic regions, has often led scholars to discuss the apparent “invisibility” of graves. This paper presents the results from several excavation campaigns at Monte Bernorio, one of the most important sites of the 1st millennium b.c. on the Iberian Peninsula. The fieldwork and post-excavation work carried out in the area of the necropolis have identified numerous burial pits, with complex ritual activities characterized by fragmentation and the practice of the pars pro toto. In addition, evidence for later rituals in some of the graves can be linked to ancestor worship. The results provide important insights into funerary practices in Late Iron Age Europe, leading us to rethink the very meaning of cemeteries in the study area and beyond.- Burial Traditions in Iron Age Europe - The Monte Bernorio Archaeological Zone - The 2007–2008 Necropolis Excavations - The 2015–2016 Necropolis Excavations - Post-Excavation Work and Interpretation: The Faunal and Human Remains - Structure and Chronology of Monte Bernorio Area 7 - Destruction of the Body, Commemoration in the Absence of a Corpse, and Visibility of the Mortuary Rite

Family structure and posttraumatic stress reactions: a longitudinal study using multilevel analyses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is limited research on the relevance of family structures to the development and maintenance of posttraumatic stress following disasters. We longitudinally studied the effects of marital and parental statuses on posttraumatic stress reactions after the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami and whether persons in the same households had more shared stress reactions than others.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The study included a tourist population of 641 Norwegian adult citizens, many of them from families with children. We measured posttraumatic stress symptoms with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised at 6 months and 2 years post-disaster. Analyses included multilevel methods with mixed effects models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results showed that neither marital nor parental status was significantly related to posttraumatic stress. At both assessments, adults living in the same household reported levels of posttraumatic stress that were more similar to one another than adults who were not living together. Between households, disaster experiences were closely related to the variance in posttraumatic stress symptom levels at both assessments. Within households, however, disaster experiences were less related to the variance in symptom level at 2 years than at 6 months.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results indicate that adult household members may influence one another's posttraumatic stress reactions as well as their interpretations of the disaster experiences over time. Our findings suggest that multilevel methods may provide important information about family processes after disasters.</p

Psychosocial interventions for patients with advanced cancer – a systematic review of the literature

Advanced cancer is associated with emotional distress, especially depression and feelings of sadness. To date, it is unclear which is the most effective way to address these problems. This review focuses on the effects of psychosocial interventions on the quality of life (QoL) of patients with advanced cancer. It was hypothesised that patients will benefit from psychosocial interventions by improving QoL, especially in the domain of emotional functioning. The review was conducted using systematic review methodology involving a systematic search of the literature published between 1990 and 2002, quality assessment of included studies, systematic data extraction and narrative data synthesis. In all, 10 randomised controlled studies involving 13 trials were included. Overall interventions and outcome measures across studies were heterogeneous. Outcome measures, pertaining to the QoL dimension of emotional functioning, were most frequently measured. A total of 12 trials evaluating behaviour therapy found positive effects on one or more indicators of QoL, for example, depression. The results of the review support recommendation of behaviour therapy in the care of patients with advanced cancer