Accounting for International War: The State of the Discipline

In studies of war it is important to observe that the processes leading to so frequent an event as conflict are not necessarily those that lead to so infrequent an event as war. Also, many models fail to recognize that a phenomenon irregularly distributed in time and space, such as war, cannot be explained on the basis of relatively invariant phenomena. Much research on periodicity in the occurrence of war has yielded little result, suggesting that the direction should now be to focus on such variables as diffusion and contagion. Structural variables, such as bipolarity, show contradictory results with some clear inter-century differences. Bipolarity, some results suggest, might have different effects on different social entities. A considerable number of studies analysing dyadic variables show a clear connection between equal capabilities among contending nations and escalation of conflict into war. Finally, research into national attributes often points to strength and geographical location as important variables. In general, the article concludes, there is room for modest optimism, as research into the question of war is no longer moving in non-cumulative circles. Systematic research is producing results and there is even a discernible tendency of convergence, in spite of a great diversity in theoretical orientations.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69148/2/10.1177_002234338101800101.pd

A neural network measurement of relative military security - the case of Greece and Cyprus

This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek-Turkish arms race on the relative security of the Greek-Cypriot alliance.Arms race, Neural networks, Relative military security,

Country Survey: Military Expenditure And Its Impact On Productivity In Italy, 1988\u20132008

This paper analyses the military expenditures in Italy over the period 1988\u20132008. The estimation of a conventional model of military expenditure shows that the choices of military expenditure by Italian governments are influenced by US and, to a lesser extent, the other NATO countries\u2019 defence spending. In particular, the negative association between the US and NATO average military expenditure on the Italian one suggests a free-rider behaviour of Italy. Eventually, we focus on the relationship between productivity and military expenditure. The results suggest that there is a negative association between productivity and military expenditures in the long run. Namely, if military expenditures were substituted by civilian expenditures, the Italian overall productivity would be expected to improve

Military expenditure and employment in South Africa

Previous research into the impact of military expenditure on employment finds considerable variation across countries. This paper adds to the debate by examining the long run relationship between military burden and manufacturing employment in South Africa. Such an analysis provides an opportunity to test for crowding-out effects and the impact of the marked decline in military spending on the South African economy. The paper finds evidence supporting the view that military expenditure will have a detrimental impact on long term manufacturing employment, adversely affecting industrial structure and efficiency.Military burden, Employment, Manufacturing, Crowding-out,