Shaping national policies at the time of global technological change: The case of Russia

Presented at the GLOBELICS 6th International Conference 2008 22-24 September, Mexico City, Mexico.The secret of any economic miracle lies in correct identification and implementation of development priorities, the latter giving an opportunity to ride another wave of economic growth. But in order to do this, it is important to create scientific information, production technology and intellectual capacity for the development of perspective technologies. Further expansion of use of the latter on the world market scale gives their owners an opportunity of ultra-speed growth of production and income. But this is preceded by a more or less extended period of accumulation of advantages in an unfavorable economic environment. Such accumulation implies participation of governmental financial institutes capable of overcoming the threshold of simultaneous costs and making profitless investments during a long time period. Implementation of the liberal strategy in developing countries is unpromising for it eliminates the possibility of such development institutes. This can be clearly seen by the results of this strategy in this country

On the strategy of modernization and development of Russian economy in a global depression

This paper reveals the essence of the program proposed by author on preemptive measures to develop the Russian economy in terms of a global depression. The distinctive features of the present global crisis and the prospects of overcoming it are identified. We propose three possible scenarios for the world economy after the crisis: 1) the scenario of quick withdrawal to a long wave of economic growth (optimistic); 2) the catastrophic scenario; 3) the inertial scenario. The key idea of forming a national strategy for accelerated development lies in: the timely establishment of basic industries, the new technological order and early withdrawal of the Russian economy on the associated new long wave of growth, increasing the power of multiple domestic banking and investment system; economic stabilization and creating a zone of sustainable development in the regions of the Eurasian Economic Community and the CIS. Taking into account the experience of anti-crisis policy of foreign countries, strategic mistakes in the planning of anti-crisis measures are identified. In the analysis of national anti-crisis policies and assessing the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures it is justified that the same mistakes were made in Russia. To overcome them, it is required to provide consistency of macroeconomic policies with the priorities of long-term economic and technological development. It might be achieved by concentrating resources on the development of advanced industrial and technological systems that require dedicated work of the national financial and investment system, including the mechanisms of monetary, fiscal and foreign exchange policy. Conceptual parameters of the strategic planning system that can identify promising areas of economic growth as well as guide the development of state institutions to implement them are formulated. The elements of such a system created in Russia in recent years and requiring its introduction are defined. The efficiency of the proposed measures of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate, industrial and social policy is substantiated. It is proposed to target: tax policy on the reduction of the tax burden on all kinds of innovative and high-tech activities, priority allocation of budgetary resources on the support of critically important state expenditures on the formation of a new technological structure, monetary and exchange rate policy on the expansion of reproduction and formation of a new technological system nucleus, protection of the Russian financial market from outside threats, expanding the use of rubles in international settlements, industrial policy - on the stimulation of growth points in the overall depressed environment, social policy - on the maintenance of an acceptable level of social infrastructure and the capacity for self-realization of the citizens. Thus, in this paper the main formulated points can be used to update the strategy of modernization and economic development in Russia in terms of the global depression

The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure

Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions). These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion). These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to the Integrated world economic structure. The authors formulated the main contradiction of our present day — the confrontation of the dying Industrial Civilization in the face of the cumulative West and the emerging Information Society. The authors analyzed the main tendencies, problems and possible alternatives to the development of the world economy. It can ensure the development and adoption of political decisions for the most painless transition of Russia to the emerging forms and institutions of the global economy