Evaluating longitudinal trends in and correlations between opioid prescribing and opioid poisoning rates in North Carolina, 2013-2021

Opioid addiction represents a serious public health challenge for health systems, as well as an enormous tragedy for communities affected by substance abuse. In recent years, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NC DHHS) has spearheaded efforts to save lives and improve opioid-related outcomes in the state through new prescribing regulations, attributing the present-day opioid epidemic to decades-long patterns of excessive prescribing. This paper provides a quantitative, regional analysis of opioid prescribing and poisoning rates in North Carolina between 2013-2021, evaluating how these rates fluctuated as synthetic opioids became more common in the state and as NC DHHS – led prescribing initiatives were deployed. In addition to considering longitudinal trends in prescribing and poisoning, we used regional and county-level data to test whether correlations exist (1) between opioid prescribing rates and (2) nonfatal-fatal overdose rates from methadone, heroin, fentanyl, and prescription opioids. Though we found limited evidence for significant associations between opioid prescribing and poisoning using regional data, we determined that opioid prescribing rates and overall fatal/nonfatal poisoning rates were weakly positively correlated based on county-level data. This suggests that counties where more opioids are prescribed see higher rates of fatal and nonfatal poisoning overall and for certain types of opioids. Such a finding has important implications for assessing North Carolina’s response to the ongoing opioid epidemic as NC DHHS works to drive down excessive opioid prescribing statewide.Master of Science in Information Scienc