Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n\u2009=\u2009305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n\u2009=\u2009604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since 6515 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+\u200937% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+\u200985%) and for thyroid cancers (+\u200979%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+\u200945%). Among the population aged 6575 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation need

Causes of death in women with breast cancer: a risks and rates study on a population-based cohort

IntroductionThe increasing survival of patients with breast cancer has prompted the assessment of mortality due to all causes of death in these patients. We estimated the absolute risks of death from different causes, useful for health-care planning and clinical prediction, as well as cause-specific hazards, useful for hypothesis generation on etiology and risk factors.Materials and methodsUsing data from population-based cancer registries we performed a retrospective study on a cohort of women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. We carried out a competing-cause analysis computing cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and cause-specific hazards (CSHs) in the whole cohort, separately by age, stage and registry area.ResultsThe study cohort comprised 12,742 women followed up for six years. Breast cancer showed the highest CIF, 13.71%, and cardiovascular disease was the second leading cause of death with a CIF of 3.60%. The contribution of breast cancer deaths to the CIF for all causes varied widely by age class: 89.25% in women diagnosed at age <50 years, 72.94% in women diagnosed at age 50–69 and 48.25% in women diagnosed at age ≥70. Greater CIF variations were observed according to stage: the contribution of causes other than breast cancer to CIF for all causes was 73.4% in women with stage I disease, 42.9% in stage II–III and only 13.2% in stage IV. CSH computation revealed temporal variations: in women diagnosed at age ≥70 the CSH for breast cancer was equaled by that for cardiovascular disease and “other diseases” in the sixth year following diagnosis, and an early peak for breast cancer was identified in the first year following diagnosis. Among women aged 50–69 we identified an early peak for breast cancer followed by a further peak near the second year of follow-up. Comparison by geographic area highlighted conspicuous variations: the highest CIF for cardiovascular disease was more than 70% higher than the lowest, while for breast cancer the highest CIF doubled the lowest.ConclusionThe integrated interpretation of absolute risks and hazards suggests the need for multidisciplinary surveillance and prevention using community-based, holistic and well-coordinated survivorship care models

High fasting blood glucose and obesity significantly and independently increase risk of breast cancer death in hormone receptor-positive disease

Purpose: We investigated the effect of fasting blood glucose and body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis on risk of breast cancer death for cases diagnosed in five Italian cancer registries in 2003–2005 and followed up to the end of 2008. Methods: For 1607 Italian women (⩾15 years) with information on BMI or blood glucose or diabetes, we analysed the risk of breast cancer death in relation to glucose tertiles (⩽84.0, 84.1–94.0, &gt;94.0 mg/dl) plus diabetic and unspecified categories; BMI tertiles (⩽23.4, 23.5–27.3, &gt;27.3 kg/m2, unspecified), stage (T1–3N0M0, T1–3N+M0 plus T4anyNM0, M1, unspecified), oestrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) status (ER+PR+, ER−PR−, ER and PR unspecified, other), age, chemotherapy and endocrine therapy, using multiple regression models. Separate models for ER+PR+ and ER−PR− cases were also run. Results: Patients often had T1–3N0M0, ER+PR+ cancers and received chemotherapy or endocrine therapy; only 6% were M1 and 17% ER−PR−. Diabetic patients were older and had more often high BMI (&gt;27 kg/m2), ER−PR−, M1 cancers than other patients. For ER+PR+ cases, with adjustment for other variables, breast cancer mortality was higher in women with high BMI than those with BMI 23.5–27.3 kg/m2 (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2–6.9). Breast cancer mortality was also higher in women with high (&gt;94 mg/dl) blood glucose compared to those with glucose 84.1–94.0 mg/dl (HR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.2–5.7). Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that in ER+PR+ patients, high blood glucose and high BMI are independently associated with increased risk of breast cancer death. Detection and correction of these factors in such patients may improve prognosis.</br

The relative contribution of the decreasing tumour thickness trend to the 2010s increase in net survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy: a population-based investigation

Background: We determined the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in Italy. Methods: Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided the records of primary CMM cases registered between 2003 and 2017. Age standardized 5-year net survival (NS) was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year NS was done by calculating the relative excess risk of death (RER). The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors. Results: Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year NS and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among men, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among women, respectively. The 5-year NS was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% (men), and 91.4%, 92.0%, and 93.4% (women). In 2013-2017, thus, men exhibited the same survival as women despite still having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness into the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 versus 2003-2007 to increase from 0.64 (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.80) to 0.70 (0.57-0.86). This indicates that thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For women, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (0.66-1.02). Conclusions: Especially for men, the decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a lesser part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining component

Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors: Design and Characteristics of the First Nationwide Population-Based Cohort in Italy

Purpose: Adolescent and young adult (AYA, 15-39 years) cancer survivors (alive at least 5 years after cancer diagnosis) are less studied than younger and older cancer survivors and research on their late effects is limited. To facilitate research on long-term outcomes of AYA cancer survivors, we established, in Italy, a population-based AYA cancer survivors' cohort. This article describes the study design and main characteristics of this cohort.Methods: The cohort derives from population-based cancer registries (CRs). Each CR identified AYA cancer patients retrospectively. Treatment for first primary cancer and all health events from diagnosis to death can be traced through linkage with available health databases, such as hospital discharge records (HDRs), mortality files, and outpatient and pharmaceutical databases.Results: Thirty-four CRs participated to the cohort which overall includes 93,291 AYAs with cancer and 67,692 cancer survivors. First primary cancer distribution in AYA cancer survivors differs by sex and age groups because of the different cancer types diagnosed in AYAs. Almost 78% of AYA cancer survivors have HDRs and 14.8% also pharmaceutical and outpatient databases.Conclusion: This cohort will be used to study, for the first time in Italy, the pattern and excess risk of late effects in AYA cancer survivors. HDRs, outpatient and pharmaceutical databases will be used to define primary treatment to assess its impact on AYA cancer survivors' late effects. This cohort exploiting data sources already available at CRs, minimize the data collection effort and it will contribute to assess the feasibility of using administrative database to study cancer survivors' late effects

The descriptive epidemiology of melanoma in Italy has changed - for the better

: A recent research project using data from a total of 40 cancer registries has provided new epidemiologic insights into the results of efforts for melanoma control in Italy between the 1990s and the last decade. In this article, the authors present a summary and a commentary of their findings. Incidence increased significantly throughout the study period in both sexes. However, the rates showed a stabilization or a decrease in men and women aged below 35 years. The risk of disease increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men) while subsequently tending to decline. The trend towards decreasing tumor thickness and increasing survival has continued, but a novel favorable prognostic factor has emerged since 2013 for patients - particularly for males - with thick melanoma, most likely represented by molecular targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Due to this, the survival gap between males and females has been filled out. In the meanwhile, and despite the incidence increase, dermatologists have not lowered their threshold to perform skin biopsy. Skin biopsy rate has increased because of the increasingly greater volume of dermatologic office visits, but the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits has remained constant. In summary, an important breakthrough in melanoma control in Italy has taken place. Effective interventions have been implemented across the full scope of care, which involve many large local populations - virtually the whole national population. The strategies adopted during the last three decades represent a valuable basis for further steps ahead in melanoma control in Italy

Worldwide trends in population-based survival for children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia, by subtype, during 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual data from 258 cancer registries in 61 countries

Background: Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0–14 years) and adults (aged 15–99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000–14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0–24 years). Methods: We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0–14 years), adolescents (15–19 years), and young adults (20–24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. Findings: 164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010–14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010–14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000–14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. Interpretation: This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group