Are Geese Flying by Themselves inside China? An LSTR-SEM Approach to Income Convergence of Chinese Counties

In this paper, we examine beta-convergence of real per-capita income of Chinese counties. We account for both the spatial dependences between counties and the possibility of different convergence regimes. The first feature is captured by the spatial error term, whereas the second one is modeled using the spatial logit smooth transition approach. Two groups of counties can be identified: 1) counties, which have relatively poor neighbors and tend to grow faster and converge, and 2) counties, which have relatively rich neighbors and tend to grow slower and hence fail to converge. The counties belonging to the first group are concentrated mainly in western interior provinces, such as Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, western part of Xinjiang Uygur. The counties of the second group are located mainly in coastal regions. Whereas in the benchmark model the estimated convergence rate is 0.8% for unconditional regression and 1.7% for condtional regression, the alternative models produce the convergence rate of 1.3-1.5% for unconditional regressions and 2.3-2.6% for conditional regressions, which is quite close to the estimates reported typically in the literature.Chinese counties, income convergence, LSTR, spatial effects

How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real Gross Regional Product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13- and 14-year horizon).Chinese provinces; forecasting; dynamic panel model; spatial autocorrelation; group-specific spatial dependence

Does Accounting for Spatial Effects Help Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It was also shown that effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at 13- and 14-year horizon).Chinese provinces, forecasting, dynamic panel model, spatial autocorrelation, group-specific spatial dependence

An analysis of the entrance requirements of fifty colleges and universities in New England.

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

Regionale Unterschiede in China: Konvergenz noch zu schwach

Im Verlauf der rasanten wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Chinas haben sich enorme regionale Unterschiede herausgebildet. In der leistungsstärksten Provinz (Shanghai) war das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen 2007 fast zehnmal so hoch wie in der wirtschaftlich schwächsten Provinz (Guizhou). Eine Verringerung der Disparitäten zwischen den Provinzen ist bisher nicht erkennbar. Etwas anders ist die Situation auf der Ebene kleinerer Regionen - der Ebene der Verwaltungskreise. Hier zeigt sich eine gewisse Tendenz zur Annäherung der Pro-Kopf- Einkommen, allerdings handelt es sich dabei um einen sehr langsamen Prozess. Eine spürbare Beschleunigung wird wohl nur eintreten, wenn die eingeleiteten regionalpolitischen Maßnahmen längerfristig durchgehalten und noch verstärkt werden

Changes of the forest-savanna boundary in Brazilian Amazonia during the holocene revealed by stable isotope ratios of soil organic carbon

The possibility of ecosystem boundary changes in northern Brazilian Amazonia during the Holocene period was investigated using soil organic carbon isotope ratios. Determination of past and present fluctuations of the forest-savanna boundary involved the measurement of natural 13C isotope abundance, expressed as delta 13C, in soil organic matter (SOM). SOM 13C analyses and radiocarbon dating of charcoal fragments were carried out on samples derived from soil profiles taken along transects perpendicular to the ecotonal boundary. SOM delta 13C values in the upper soil horizons appeared to be in equilibrium with the overlying vegetation types and did not point to a movement of the boundary during the last decades. However, delta 13C values obtained from deeper savanna and forest soil layers indicated that the vegetation type has changed in the past. In current savanna soil profiles, we observed the presence of mid-Holocene charcoals derived from forest species : fire frequency at that time was probably greater, and more extensive savanna may have resulted. Isotope data and the presence of these charcoals thus suggest that the forest-savanna boundary has shifted significantly in the recent Holocene period, forest being more extensive during the early Holocene than today. During the middle Holocene, the forest could have strongly regressed, and fires appeared, with a maximum development of the savanna vegetation. At the beginning of the late Holocene, the forest may have invaded a part of this savanna, and fires occurred again. (Résumé d'auteur

Multifocal lymphadenopathies with polyclonal reactions primed after EBV infection in a mRNA-1273 vaccine recipient.

We report a case of recurrent tender, multifocal lymphadenopathies associated with B-symptoms, clinically mimicking lymphoma in a mRNA-1273 vaccine recipient after a recent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection. In the lymph node biopsy, monocytoid B-cell hyperplasia, TH2 (GATA3+) predominance, and hyperplasia of interferon-gamma-producing plasmacytoid dendritic cells were observed along with sustained neutralising antibody production against SARS-CoV-2 wild-type and five variants. High titres of anti-S antibodies and neutralising antibodies were observed, excepted for variant B.1.529** (omicron) and B.1.351** (beta), due to several mutations in the spike protein, including the E484K mutation. We postulated that EBV acted as an immunological enhancer with the mRNA-1273 vaccine, inducing a sustained inflammatory response over several weeks. However, the polyclonal nature of the lymphadenopathy with polytypic plasmacytosis and pseudo-tumoural reaction cell hyperplasia were associated with failure to mount acute phase responses