A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points

Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a socio-economic system abruptly changes to a fundamentally different state. While their potential existence is recognized, a systematic method for policy-relevant research on SETPs is lacking. This study introduces a stepwise approach for identification of SETPs that supports decision making under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions. The approach is demonstrated with a stylized case study on the collapse of house prices (a SETP) in a coastal city, due to increasing flood risk from sea level rise. We explore four dynamic adaptive management strategies under a wide range of possible futures. We find that under scenarios with very high and rapid sea level rise, tipping points in real estate prices occur if the market responds to sudden changes in perceived flood risk rather than gradually adjusting prices to changes in flood risk in a rational manner. Such SETPs can only be avoided with a proactive strategy and when flood protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our approach can guide future studies on SETPs and seeks to move the study of SETPs towards a concept that provides perspective of action for policy makers

How needs and preferences of employees influence participation in health promotion programs: A six-month follow-up study

Background: Low participation in health promotion programs (HPPs) might hamper their effectiveness. A potential reason for low participation is disagreement between needs and preferences of potential participants and the actual HPPs offered. This study aimed to investigate employees' need and preferences for HPPs, whether these are matched by what their employers provide, and whether a higher agreement enhanced participation. Methods: Employees of two organizations participated in a six-month follow-up study (n = 738). At baseline, information was collected on employees' needs and preferences for the topic of the HPP (i.e. physical activity, healthy nutrition, smoking cessation, stress management, general health), whether they favored a HPP via their employer or at their own discretion, and their preferred HPP regarding three components with each two alternatives: mode of delivery (individual vs. group), intensity (single vs. multiple meetings), and content (assignments vs. information). Participation in HPPs was assessed at six-month

Barriers and facilitators for participation in health promotion programs among employees: A six-month follow-up study

Background: Health promotion programs (HPPs) are thought to improve health behavior and health, and their effectiveness is increasingly being studied. However, participation in HPPs is usually modest and effect sizes are often small. This study aims to (1) gain insight into the degree of participation of employees in HPPs, and (2) identify factors among employees that are associated with both their intention to participate and actual participation in HPPs. Methods. Employees of two organizations were invited to participate in a six-month follow-up study (n = 744). Using questionnaires, information on participation in HPPs was collected in two categories: employees' intention at baseline to participate and their actual participation in a HPP during the follow-up period. The following potential determinants were assessed at baseline: social-cognitive factors, perceived barriers and facilitators, beliefs about health at work, health behaviors, and self-perceived health. Logistic regression analyses, adjusted for demographics and organization, were used to examine associations between potential determinants and intention to participate, and to examine the effect of these determinants on actual participation during follow-up. Results: At baseline, 195 employees (26%) expressed a positive intention towards participation in a HPP. During six months of follow-up, 83 employees (11%) actually participated. Participants positively inclined at baseline to participate in a HPP were more likely to actually participate (OR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.88-4.83). Privacy-related barriers, facilit

A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points

Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a socio-economic system abruptly changes to a fundamentally different state. While their potential existence is recognized, a systematic method for policy-relevant research on SETPs is lacking. This study introduces a stepwise approach for identification of SETPs that supports decision making under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions. The approach is demonstrated with a stylized case study on the collapse of house prices (a SETP) in a coastal city, due to increasing flood risk from sea level rise. We explore four dynamic adaptive management strategies under a wide range of possible futures. We find that under scenarios with very high and rapid sea level rise, tipping points in real estate prices occur if the market responds to sudden changes in perceived flood risk rather than gradually adjusting prices to changes in flood risk in a rational manner. Such SETPs can only be avoided with a proactive strategy and when flood protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our approach can guide future studies on SETPs and seeks to move the study of SETPs towards a concept that provides perspective of action for policy makers

A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points

Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a socio-economic system abruptly changes to a fundamentally different state. While their potential existence is recognized, a systematic method for policy-relevant research on SETPs is lacking. This study introduces a stepwise approach for identification of SETPs that supports decision making under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions. The approach is demonstrated with a stylized case study on the collapse of house prices (a SETP) in a coastal city, due to increasing flood risk from sea level rise. We explore four dynamic adaptive management strategies under a wide range of possible futures. We find that under scenarios with very high and rapid sea level rise, tipping points in real estate prices occur if the market responds to sudden changes in perceived flood risk rather than gradually adjusting prices to changes in flood risk in a rational manner. Such SETPs can only be avoided with a proactive strategy and when flood protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our approach can guide future studies on SETPs and seeks to move the study of SETPs towards a concept that provides perspective of action for policy makers