A Foundational Framework and Methodology for Personalized Early and Timely Diagnosis

Early diagnosis of diseases holds the potential for deep transformation in healthcare by enabling better treatment options, improving long-term survival and quality of life, and reducing overall cost. With the advent of medical big data, advances in diagnostic tests as well as in machine learning and statistics, early or timely diagnosis seems within reach. Early diagnosis research often neglects the potential for optimizing individual diagnostic paths. To enable personalized early diagnosis, a foundational framework is needed that delineates the diagnosis process and systematically identifies the time-dependent value of various diagnostic tests for an individual patient given their unique characteristics. Here, we propose the first foundational framework for early and timely diagnosis. It builds on decision-theoretic approaches to outline the diagnosis process and integrates machine learning and statistical methodology for estimating the optimal personalized diagnostic path. To describe the proposed framework as well as possibly other frameworks, we provide essential definitions. The development of a foundational framework is necessary for several reasons: 1) formalism provides clarity for the development of decision support tools; 2) observed information can be complemented with estimates of the future patient trajectory; 3) the net benefit of counterfactual diagnostic paths and associated uncertainties can be modeled for individuals 4) 'early' and 'timely' diagnosis can be clearly defined; 5) a mechanism emerges for assessing the value of technologies in terms of their impact on personalized early diagnosis, resulting health outcomes and incurred costs. Finally, we hope that this foundational framework will unlock the long-awaited potential of timely diagnosis and intervention, leading to improved outcomes for patients and higher cost-effectiveness for healthcare systems.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Time spent in hospital after liver transplantation: Effects of primary liver disease and comorbidity.

AIM: To explore the effect of primary liver disease and comorbidities on transplant length of stay (TLOS) and LOS in later admissions in the first two years after liver transplantation (LLOS). METHODS: A linked United Kingdom Liver Transplant Audit - Hospital Episode Statistics database of patients who received a first adult liver transplant between 1997 and 2010 in England was analysed. Patients who died within the first two years were excluded from the primary analysis, but a sensitivity analysis was also performed including all patients. Multivariable linear regression was used to evaluate the impact of primary liver disease and comorbidities on TLOS and LLOS. RESULTS: In 3772 patients, the mean (95%CI) TLOS was 24.8 (24.2 to 25.5) d, and the mean LLOS was 24.2 (22.9 to 25.5) d. Compared to patients with cancer, we found that the largest difference in TLOS was seen for acute hepatic failure group (6.1 d; 2.8 to 9.4) and the largest increase in LLOS was seen for other liver disease group (14.8 d; 8.1 to 21.5). Patients with cardiovascular disease had 8.5 d (5.7 to 11.3) longer TLOS and 6.0 d (0.2 to 11.9) longer LLOS, compare to those without. Patients with congestive cardiac failure had 7.6 d longer TLOS than those without. Other comorbidities did not significantly increase TLOS nor LLOS. CONCLUSION: The time patients spent in hospital varied according to their primary liver disease and some comorbidities. Time spent in hospital of patients with cancer was relatively short compared to most other indications. Cardiovascular disease and congestive cardiac failure were the comorbidities with a strong impact on increased LOS

Normothermic perfusion in the assessment and preservation of declined livers prior to transplantation: hyperoxia and vasoplegia - important lessons from the first 12 cases.

BACKGROUND: A programme of normothermic ex situ liver perfusion (NESLiP) was developed to facilitate better assessment and use of marginal livers, while minimising cold ischaemia. METHODS: Declined marginal livers and those offered for research were evaluated. NESLiP was performed using an erythrocyte-based perfusate. Viability was assessed with reference to biochemical changes in the perfusate. RESULTS: 12 livers (9 from circulatory death (DCD) and 3 from brain-dead donors), median Donor Risk Index 2.15, were subjected to NESLiP for a median 284 minutes (range 122-530) after an initial cold storage period of 427 minutes (range 222-877). The first 6 livers were perfused at high perfusate oxygen tensions, and the subsequent 6 at near-physiologic oxygen tensions. After transplantation, 5 of the first 6 recipients developed postreperfusion syndrome and 4 had sustained vasoplegia; 1 recipient experienced primary nonfunction in conjunction with a difficult explant. The subsequent 6 liver transplants, with livers perfused at lower oxygen tensions, reperfused uneventfully. Three DCD liver recipients developed cholangiopathy, and this was associated with an inability to produce an alkali bile during NESLiP. CONCLUSIONS: NESLiP enabled assessment and transplantation of 12 livers that may otherwise not have been used. Avoidance of hyperoxia during perfusion may prevent postreperfusion syndrome and vasoplegia, and monitoring biliary pH, rather than absolute bile production, may be important in determining the likelihood of posttransplant cholangiopathy. NESLiP has the potential to increase liver utilization, but more work is required to define factors predicting good outcomes.This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

How artificial intelligence and machine learning can help healthcare systems respond to COVID-19

The COVID-19 global pandemic is a threat not only to the health of millions of individuals, but also to the stability of infrastructure and economies around the world. The disease will inevitably place an overwhelming burden on healthcare systems that cannot be effectively dealt with by existing facilities or responses based on conventional approaches. We believe that a rigorous clinical and societal response can only be mounted by using intelligence derived from a variety of data sources to better utilize scarce healthcare resources, provide per- sonalized patient management plans, inform policy, and expedite clinical trials. In this paper, we introduce five of the most important challenges in responding to COVID-19 and show how each of them can be addressed by recent develop- ments in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI). We argue that the integration of these techniques into local, national, and international healthcare systems will save lives, and propose specific methods by which implementation can happen swiftly and efficiently. We offer to extend these resources and knowledge to assist policymakers seeking to implement these techniques

Observations on the ex situ perfusion of livers for transplantation.

Normothermic ex situ liver perfusion might allow viability assessment of livers before transplantation. Perfusion characteristics were studied in 47 liver perfusions, of which 22 resulted in transplants. Hepatocellular damage was reflected in the perfusate transaminase concentrations, which correlated with posttransplant peak transaminase levels. Lactate clearance occurred within 3 hours in 46 of 47 perfusions, and glucose rose initially during perfusion in 44. Three livers required higher levels of bicarbonate support to maintain physiological pH, including one developing primary nonfunction. Bile production did not correlate with viability or cholangiopathy, but bile pH, measured in 16 of the 22 transplanted livers, identified three livers that developed cholangiopathy (peak pH 7.5). In the 11 research livers where it could be studied, bile pH > 7.5 discriminated between the 6 livers exhibiting >50% circumferential stromal necrosis of septal bile ducts and 4 without necrosis; one liver with 25-50% necrosis had a maximum pH 7.46. Liver viability during normothermic perfusion can be assessed using a combination of transaminase release, glucose metabolism, lactate clearance, and maintenance of acid-base balance. Evaluation of bile pH may offer a valuable insight into bile duct integrity and risk of posttransplant ischemic cholangiopathy

Normothermic Perfusion in the Assessment and Preservation of Declined Livers Before Transplantation: Hyperoxia and Vasoplegia-Important Lessons From the First 12 Cases.

BACKGROUND: A program of normothermic ex situ liver perfusion (NESLiP) was developed to facilitate better assessment and use of marginal livers, while minimizing cold ischemia. METHODS: Declined marginal livers and those offered for research were evaluated. Normothermic ex situ liver perfusion was performed using an erythrocyte-based perfusate. Viability was assessed with reference to biochemical changes in the perfusate. RESULTS: Twelve livers (9 donation after circulatory death [DCD] and 3 from brain-dead donors), median Donor Risk Index 2.15, were subjected to NESLiP for a median 284 minutes (range, 122-530 minutes) after an initial cold storage period of 427 minutes (range, 222-877 minutes). The first 6 livers were perfused at high perfusate oxygen tensions, and the subsequent 6 at near-physiologic oxygen tensions. After transplantation, 5 of the first 6 recipients developed postreperfusion syndrome and 4 had sustained vasoplegia; 1 recipient experienced primary nonfunction in conjunction with a difficult explant. The subsequent 6 liver transplants, with livers perfused at lower oxygen tensions, reperfused uneventfully. Three DCD liver recipients developed cholangiopathy, and this was associated with an inability to produce an alkali bile during NESLiP. CONCLUSIONS: Normothermic ex situ liver perfusion enabled assessment and transplantation of 12 livers that may otherwise not have been used. Avoidance of hyperoxia during perfusion may prevent postreperfusion syndrome and vasoplegia, and monitoring biliary pH, rather than absolute bile production, may be important in determining the likelihood of posttransplant cholangiopathy. Normothermic ex situ liver perfusion has the potential to increase liver utilization, but more work is required to define factors predicting good outcomes

Outcomes of transplantation of livers from donation after circulatory death donors in the UK: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Outcomes of liver transplantations from donation after circulatory death (DCD) donors may be inferior to those achieved with donation after brain death (DBD) donors. The impact of using DCD donors is likely to depend on specific national practices. We compared risk-adjusted graft loss and recipient mortality after transplantation of DCD and DBD livers in the UK. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Multivariable Cox regression and propensity score matching were used to estimate risk-adjusted HR. SETTING: 7 liver transplant centres in the National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England and Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Adults who received a first elective liver transplant between January 2005 and December 2010 who were identified in the UK Liver Transplant Audit. INTERVENTIONS: Transplantation of DCD and DBD livers. OUTCOMES: Graft loss and recipient mortality. RESULTS: In total, 2572 liver transplants were identified with 352 (14%) from DCD donors. 3-year graft loss (95% CI) was higher with DCD livers (27.3%, 21.8% to 33.9%) than with DBD livers (18.2%, 16.4% to 20.2%). After adjustment with regression, HR for graft loss was 2.3 (1.7 to 3.0). Similarly, 3-year mortality was higher with DCD livers (19.4%, 14.5% to 25.6%) than with DBD livers (14.1%, 12.5% to 16.0%) with an adjusted HR of 2.0 (1.4 to 2.8). Propensity score matching gave similar results. Centre-specific adjusted HRs for graft loss and recipient mortality seemed to differ among transplant centres, although statistical evidence is weak (p value for interaction 0.08 and 0.24, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Graft loss and recipient mortality were about twice as high with DCD livers as with DBD livers in the UK. Outcomes after DCD liver transplantation may vary between centres. These results should inform policies for the use of DCD livers

Time-varying impact of comorbidities on mortality after liver transplantation: a national cohort study using linked clinical and administrative data.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the impact of comorbidity on mortality in three periods after liver transplantation (first 90 days, 90 days-5 years and 5-10 years). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study using records from the UK Liver Transplant Audit (UKLTA) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), an administrative database of hospital admissions in the English National Health Service (NHS). Comorbidities relevant for liver transplantation were identified from the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes in HES records of admissions in the year preceding their operation. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate HRs for three different time periods after liver transplantation. SETTING: All liver transplant centres in the NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: Adults who received a first elective liver transplant between April 1997 and March 2010 in the linked UKLTA-HES database. OUTCOMES: Patient mortality in three different time periods after transplantation. RESULTS: Among 3837 recipients, 45.1% had comorbidities. Recipients with cardiovascular disease had statistically significantly higher mortality in all three periods after transplantation (first 90 days: HR=2.0; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.9, 90 days-5 years: 1.6; 1.2 to 2.2, beyond 5 years: 2.8; 1.7 to 4.4). Prior congestive cardiac failure (3.2; 2.1 to 4.9) significantly increased mortality only in the first 90 days. History of non-hepatic malignancy appeared to increase risk over all periods, but significantly only in the first 90 days (1.9; 1.0 to 3.6). A diagnosis of connective tissue disease, dementia, diabetes, chronic pulmonary and renal disease did not have a significant impact on mortality in any period. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of comorbidities present at the time of transplantation changes with time after transplantation. Renal disease, pulmonary disease and diabetes had no impact on mortality in contrast to previous reports

Unusual case of abdominal pain following liver transplant: causality or casualty?

This is an unusual case of chronic abdominal pain following two liver transplants with at least three potential causes: traumatic neuroma, intussusception of the small bowel of the Roux loop and biliary cast. Surgical removal of the latter two factors led to resolution of the pain. The management of the clinical case is discussed