PILOT: design and capabilities

The proposed design for PILOT is a general-purpose, wide-field 1 degree 2.4m, f/10 Ritchey-Chretien telescope, with fast tip-tilt guiding, for use 0.5-25 microns. The design allows both wide-field and diffraction-limited use at these wavelengths. The expected overall image quality, including median seeing, is 0.28-0.3" FWHM from 0.8-2.4 microns. Point source sensitivities are estimated.Comment: 4 pages, Proceedings of 2nd ARENA conference 'The Astrophysical Science Cases at Dome C', Potsdam, 17-21 September 200

Cumulative harm and chronic child maltreatment

In this paper, cumulative harm is defined, past approaches that have contributed to conceptualising maltreatment as an isolated event are discussed. Possible indicators of chronic maltreatment are highlighted and the potential for chronic maltreatment to have a cumulative impact on children is demonstrated using a case example. The paper focuses on the Victorian context, but the issues of cumulative harm and chronic child maltreatment have relevance to policy-makers and practitioners in other jurisdictions

Statistical analysis of Ni nanowires breaking processes: a numerical simulation study

A statistical analysis of the breaking behavior of Ni nanowires is presented. Using molecular dynamic simulations, we have determined the time evolution of both the nanowire atomic structure and its minimum cross section (Sm(t)). Accumulating thousands of independent breaking events, Sm histograms are built and used to study the influence of the temperature, the crystalline stretching direction and the initial nanowire size. The proportion of monomers, dimers and more complex structures at the latest stages of the breaking process are calculated, finding important differences among results obtained for different nanowire orientations and sizes. Three main cases have been observed. (A) [111] stretching direction and large nanowire sizes: the wire evolves from more complex structures to monomers and dimers prior its rupture; well ordered structures is presented during the breaking process. (B) Large nanowires stretched along the [100] and [110] directions: the system mainly breaks from complex structures (low probability of finding monomers and dimers), having disordered regions during their breakage; at room temperature, a huge histogram peak around Sm=5 appears, showing the presence of long staggered pentagonal Ni wires with ...-5-1-5-... structure. (C) Initial wire size is small: strong size effects independently on the temperature and stretching direction. Finally, the local structure around monomers and dimmers do not depend on the stretching direction. These configurations differ from those usually chosen in static studies of conductance.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figure

High Sensitivity of Human Translesion DNA Synthesis Polymerase κ to Variation in O6-Carboxymethylguanine Structures

Carboxymethylation of DNA, including the formation of the DNA adduct O6-carboxymethylguanine (O6-CMG), is associated with lifestyle factors, such as diet. It can impede replicative polymerases (Pols) and lead to replication fork stalling, or an alternative means for replication to proceed by translesion DNA synthesis (TLS). TLS requires specialized DNA Pols characterized by open and preformed active sites capable of preferential bypass of alkylated DNA adducts but that have high error rates, leading to mutations. Human TLS Pols can bypass O6-CMG with varying degrees of accuracy, but it is not known how the chemical structure of the O6-CMG adduct influences polymerase proficiency or fidelity. To better understand how adduct structure determines dNTP selection at lesion sites, we prepared DNA templates with a series of O6-CMG structural analogs and compared the primer extension patterns of Y- and X-family Pols in response to these modifications. The results indicate that the structure of the DNA adduct had a striking effect on dNTP selection by Pol κ and that an increased steric size influences the fidelity of Pol η, whereas Pol ι and β function were only marginally affected. To test the hypothesis that specific hydrogen bonding interactions between the templating base and the incoming dNTP are a basis of this selection, we modeled the structural analogs with incoming dNTP in the Pol κ active site. These data indicate that the base pairing geometry and stabilization by a dense hydrogen bonding network are important molecular features for dNTP incorporation, providing a basis for understanding error-free bypass of O6-CMG by Pol κ

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Meteorologic parameters analysis above Dome C made with ECMWF data

In this paper we present the characterization of all the principal meteorological parameters (wind speed and direction, pressure, absolute and potential temperature) extended over 25 km from the ground and over two years (2003 and 2004) above the Antarctic site of Dome C. The data set is composed by 'analyses' provided by the General Circulation Model (GCM) of the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and they are part of the catalog MARS. A monthly and seasonal (summer and winter time) statistical analysis of the results is presented. The Richardson number is calculated for each month of the year over 25 km to study the stability/instability of the atmosphere. This permits us to trace a map indicating where and when the optical turbulence has the highest probability to be triggered on the whole troposphere, tropopause and stratosphere. We finally try to predict the best expected isoplanatic angle and wavefront coherence time employing the Richardson number maps, the wind speed profiles and simple analytical models of CN2 vertical profiles.Comment: 28 pages, 14 figures, pdf file, to be published on July 2006 - PASP, see also http://www.arcetri.astro.it/~masciad

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events

Smart Focal Plane Technologies for VLT Instruments

As we move towards the era of ELTs, it is timely to think about the future role of the 8-m class telescopes. Under the OPTICON programme, novel technologies have been developed that are intended for use in multi-object and integral-field spectrographs. To date, these have been targeted at instrument concepts for the European ELT, but there are also significant possibilities for their inclusion in new VLT instruments, ensuring the continued success and productivity of these unique telescopes.Comment: 5 pages, to appear in the proceedings of the ESO Workshop "Science with the VLT in the ELT era