Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events

Behavioural thermoregulation in cold-water freshwater fish: Innate resilience to climate warming?

Behavioural thermoregulation enables ectotherms to access habitats providing condi-tions within their temperature optima, especially in periods of extreme thermal condi-tions, through adjustments to their behaviours that provide a “whole- body” response to temperature changes. Although freshwater fish have been detected as moving in response to temperature changes to access habitats that provide their thermal optima, there is a lack of integrative studies synthesising the extent to which this is driven by behaviour across different species and spatial scales. A quantitative global synthesis of behavioural thermoregulation in freshwater fish revealed that across 77 studies, behavioural thermoregulatory movements by fish were detected both vertically and horizontally, and from warm to cool waters and, occasionally, the converse. When fish moved from warm to cooler habitats, the extent of the temperature difference between these habitats decreased with increasing latitude, with juvenile and non- migratory fishes tolerating greater temperature differences than adult and anadro-mous individuals. With most studies focused on assessing movements of cold-water salmonids during summer periods, there remains an outstanding need for work on cli-matically vulnerable, non-salmonid fishes to understand how these innate thermoreg-ulatory behaviours could facilitate population persistence in warming conditions

The Science Case for PILOT I: Summary and Overview

Original article can be found at: http://www.publish.csiro.au/?nid=139&aid=108 DOI: 10.1071/AS08048 [Open access article]PILOT (the Pathfinder for an International Large Optical Telescope) is a proposed 2.5-m optical/infrared telescope to be located at Dome C on the Antarctic plateau. Conditions at Dome C are known to be exceptional for astronomy. The seeing (above ∼30 m height), coherence time, and isoplanatic angle are all twice as good as at typical mid-latitude sites, while the water-vapour column, and the atmosphere and telescope thermal emission are all an order of magnitude better. These conditions enable a unique scientific capability for PILOT, which is addressed in this series of papers. The current paper presents an overview of the optical and instrumentation suite for PILOT and its expected performance, a summary of the key science goals and observational approach for the facility, a discussion of the synergies between the science goals for PILOT and other telescopes, and a discussion of the future of Antarctic astronomy. Paper II and Paper III present details of the science projects divided, respectively, between the distant Universe (i.e. studies of first light, and the assembly and evolution of structure) and the nearby Universe (i.e. studies of Local Group galaxies, the Milky Way, and the Solar System).Peer reviewe

Induced innovation in energy technologies and systems: a review of evidence and potential implications for CO2 mitigation

We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research

Biological and environmental influences on the migration phenology of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in a chalk stream in southern England

1. Migration enables animals to access important resources throughout their lifetime but exists in a trade-off with elevated mortality risk. In spring, juvenile Atlantic salmon (smolts) migrate from their natal rivers for marine feeding grounds, with the timing of their marine entry a potentially important determinant of their long-term survival. However, there is relatively little known on how the interaction of biological and environmental factors affect smolt migration phenology at the individual level, and how these vary throughout the duration of the smolt seaward migration (run). 2. Using 15-year tag, recapture, and detection datasets of individual smolts (marked with passive integrated transponder tags) from a chalk stream in southern England, the influences of a range of biological and environmental variables were tested on the run timing of individual smolts, measured as the timing of their arrival in a lower river reach. 3. The probability of smolts arriving earlier in the lower river reach was elevated following winters that were relatively warm, and when there were larger positive daily changes in water temperature and discharge during the run. Early migrants tended to be larger individuals and from sites lower in the catchment, from where the smolts had to migrate relatively shorter distances. Later migrants were more likely to migrate in schools, but with schooling behaviour also more likely to occur during daylight than at night. 4. The relative influence of some of these variables altered throughout the run. Relative changes in daily water temperature were not important during the middle period of the smolt run but were important at the start and end of the run. Relative changes in daily discharge were most influential towards the end of the run, when even relatively small changes in discharge had a strong influence on migration. 5. These results reveal the importance of a wide range of biological and environmental variables on the phenology of smolt migrations, and how their influence can alter throughout the run. With predictions of annually increasing river temperatures, more frequent and intense discharge events, and associated shifts to earlier migration, these results emphasise that such changes in climate are likely to have substantial consequences on the future success of smolt migrations and thereby future numbers of returning adult spawners

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

An increase in food production in Europe could dramatically affect farmland biodiversity

Conversion of semi-natural habitats, such as field margins, fallows, hedgerows, grassland, woodlots and forests, to agricultural land could increase agricultural production and help meet rising global food demand. Yet, the extent to which such habitat loss would impact biodiversity and wild species is unknown. Here we survey species richness for four taxa (vascular plants, earthworms, spiders, wild bees) and agricultural yield across a range of arable, grassland, mixed, horticulture, permanent crop, for organic and non-organic agricultural land on 169 farms across 10 European regions. We find that semi-natural habitats currently constitute 23% of land area with 49% of species unique to these habitats. We estimate that conversion of semi-natural land that achieves a 10% increase in agricultural production will have the greatest impact on biodiversity in arable systems and the least impact in grassland systems, with organic practices having better species retention than non-organic practices. Our findings will help inform sustainable agricultural development

Social Network Evolution during Long-term Migration: A comparison of three case studies in the South Wales region

Ten years after Poland joined the European Union (EU), a sizable number of the once considered short-term migrants that entered the United Kingdom (UK) post-2004 have remained. From the literature, it is known that when initially migrating, social networks, composed of family and friends, are used to facilitate migration. Later, migrants’ social networks may evolve to include local, non-ethnic members of the community. Through these networks, migrants may access new opportunities within the local economy. They also serve to socialise newcomers in the cultural modalities of life in the destination country. However, what if migrants’ social networks do not evolve or evolve in a limited manner? Is cultural integration still possible under these conditions? Using data collected from three case studies in the South Wales region –Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil & Llanelli- from 2008-2012, the aim of this article is to compare Polish migrants’ social network usage, or lack thereof, over time. This comparison will be used to understand how these social networks can be catalysts and barriers for cultural integration. The findings point to the migrants’ varied use of their local social networks, which is dependent upon their language skill acquisition and their labour market mobility in the destination country