Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency (commentary)

Liquidity (Economics) ; Monetary policy

Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market

We study the effect of variation in interest rates on investment spending, employing a large panel data set that links yields on outstanding corporate bonds to the issuer income and balance sheet statements. The bond price data -- based on trades in the secondary market -- enable us to construct a firm-specific measure of the user cost of capital based on the marginal cost of external finance as determined in the market for long-term corporate debt. Our results imply a robust and quantitatively important effect of the user cost of capital on the firm-level investment decisions. According to our estimates, a 1 percentage point increase in the user cost of capital implies a reduction in the investment rate of 50 to 75 basis points and, in the long run, a 1 percent reduction in the stock of capital.

Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms

We present evidence on the cyclical behavior of small versus large manufacturing firms, and on the response of the two classes of firms to monetary policy. Our goal is to take a step toward quantifying the role of credit market imperfections in the business cycle and in the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that, following tight money, small firms sales decline at a faster pace than large firm sales for a period of more than two years. Further, bank lending to small firms contracts, while it actually rises for large firms. Monetary policy indicators tied to the performance of banking, such as M2, have relatively greater predictive power for small firms than for large. Finally, small firms are more sensitive than are large to lagged movements in GNP. Considering that small firms overall are a non-trivial component of the economy, we interpret these results as suggestive of the macroeconomic relevance of credit market imperfections.

Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning

This paper studies the implications of financial market imperfections represented by a countercyclical external finance premium and the gradual recognition of changes in the drift of technology growth for the design of an interest rate rule. Asset price movements induced by changes in trend growth influence balance-sheet conditions that determine the external finance premium. Such movements are magnified when the private sector is imperfectly informed regarding the trend growth rate of technology. The presence of financial market imperfections provides a motivation for responding to the gap between the observed asset prices and the potential level of asset prices in addition to responding strongly to inflation. This is because the asset price gap represents distortions in the resource allocation induced by financial market imperfections more distinctly than inflation. The policymaker's imperfect information about the drift of technology growth renders imprecise the calculation of the potential and thus reduces the benefit of responding to the asset price gap. A policy that responds to the level of asset prices which does not take into account changes in potential tends to be welfare reducing.

The importance of credit for macroeconomic activity: identification through heterogeneity

Bank loans ; Monetary policy - United States ; Macroeconomics

Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis

This paper uses firm-level panel data to analyze the role of financial factors in determining investment outcomes during the Korean financial crisis. Our identification strategy exploits the presence of foreign-denominated debt to measure shocks to the financial position of firms following the devaluation that occurred during the crisis period. Structural parameter estimates imply that financial factors may account for 50% to 80% of the overall drop in investment observed during this episode. Our estimates also imply that foreign-denominated debt had relatively little effect on aggregate investment spending. Counterfactual experiments suggest sizeable contractions in investment through this mechanism for economies that are more heavily dependent on foreign-denominated debt however.

Skill-biased Technology Adoption: Evidence for the Chilean manufacturing sector

We examine the evolution of the demand for skilled workers relative to unskilled workers in the Chilean manufacturing sector following Chile’s liberalization of trade in the late 1970’s. Following such trade reforms, the standard Heckscher-Olin model predicts that a low labor-cost country like Chile should experience an increased demand for low skilled workers relative to high skilled workers. Alternatively, if trade liberalization is associated with the adoption of new technologies, and technology is skill-biased, the relative demand for skilled workers may rise. Using a newly available plant-level data set that spans the sixteen year period 1979-1995, we find that the relative demand for skilled workers rose sharply during the 1979-1986 period and then stabilized. The sharp increase in demand for skilled workers coincided with an increased propensity to adopt new technologies as measured by patent usage. Plant-level analysis of labor demand confirms a significant relationship between the relative demand for skilled workers and technology adoption as measured by patent usage and other technology indicators. Our results suggest that skill-biased technological change is a significant determinant of labor demand and wage structures in developing economies.

Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital goods. Using a putty-clay model of production and investment, we are able to capture many of the key empirical properties of Germany and Japan's postwar transitions, including persistently high but declining rates of labor and total-factor productivity growth, a U-shaped response of the capital-output ratio, rising rates of investment and employment, and moderate rates of return to capital.