Nonstationary spatiotemporal Bayesian data fusion for pollutants in the near‐road environment

Concentrations of near‐road air pollutants (NRAPs) have increased to very high levels in many urban centers around the world, particularly in developing countries. The adverse health effects of exposure to NRAPs are greater when the exposure occurs in the near‐road environment as compared to background levels of pollutant concentration. Therefore, there is increasing interest in monitoring pollutant concentrations in the near‐road environment. However, due to various practical limitations, monitoring pollutant concentrations near roadways and traffic sources is generally rather difficult and expensive. As an alternative, various deterministic computer models that provide predictions of pollutant concentrations in the near‐road environment, such as the research line‐source dispersion model (RLINE), have been developed. A common feature of these models is that their outputs typically display systematic biases and need to be calibrated in space and time using observed pollutant data. In this paper, we present a nonstationary Bayesian data fusion model that uses a novel data set on monitored pollutant concentrations (nitrogen oxides or NOx and fine particulate matter or PM2.5) in the near‐road environment and, combining it with the RLINE model output, provides predictions at unsampled locations. The model can also be used to evaluate whether including the RLINE model output leads to improved pollutant concentration predictions and whether the RLINE model output captures the spatial dependence structure of NRAP concentrations in the near‐road environment. A defining characteristic of the proposed model is that we model the nonstationarity in the pollutant concentrations by using a recently developed approach that includes covariates, postulated to be the driving force behind the nonstationary behavior, in the covariance function.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151876/1/env2581.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151876/2/env2581_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151876/3/ENV_2581-Supp-0001-BDF_supp_material.pd

3D Face Reconstruction from Light Field Images: A Model-free Approach

Reconstructing 3D facial geometry from a single RGB image has recently instigated wide research interest. However, it is still an ill-posed problem and most methods rely on prior models hence undermining the accuracy of the recovered 3D faces. In this paper, we exploit the Epipolar Plane Images (EPI) obtained from light field cameras and learn CNN models that recover horizontal and vertical 3D facial curves from the respective horizontal and vertical EPIs. Our 3D face reconstruction network (FaceLFnet) comprises a densely connected architecture to learn accurate 3D facial curves from low resolution EPIs. To train the proposed FaceLFnets from scratch, we synthesize photo-realistic light field images from 3D facial scans. The curve by curve 3D face estimation approach allows the networks to learn from only 14K images of 80 identities, which still comprises over 11 Million EPIs/curves. The estimated facial curves are merged into a single pointcloud to which a surface is fitted to get the final 3D face. Our method is model-free, requires only a few training samples to learn FaceLFnet and can reconstruct 3D faces with high accuracy from single light field images under varying poses, expressions and lighting conditions. Comparison on the BU-3DFE and BU-4DFE datasets show that our method reduces reconstruction errors by over 20% compared to recent state of the art

Evaluation of gut modulatory and bronchodilator activities of Amaranthus spinosus Linn.

Background The aqueous-methanolic extract of Amaranthus spinosus (A. spinosus Linn.,) whole plant, was studied for its laxative, spasmolytic and bronchodilator activities to validate some of its medicinal uses. Methods The crude extract of A. spinosus was studied in-vivo for bronchodilator and laxative activities and in-vitro using isolated tissue preparations which were mounted in tissue baths assembly containing physiological salt solutions, maintained at 37°C and aerated with carbogen, to assess the spasmolytic effect and to find out the possible underlying mechanisms. Results In the in-vivo experiments in mice, the administration of A. spinosus increased fecal output at doses of 100 and 300 mg/kg showing laxative activity. It also inhibited carbachol-induced bronchospasm in anesthetized rats at 1, 3, 10 and 30 mg/kg indicative of bronchodilator activity. When tested on isolated gut preparations, the plant extract showed a concentration-dependent (0.01-10.0 mg/ml) spasmogenic effect in spontaneously contracting rabbit jejunum and guinea-pig ileum. The spasmogenic effect was partially blocked in tissues pretreated with atropine (0.1 μM). When tested on K+ (80 mM)-induced sustained contractions in isolated rabbit jejunum, the plant extract caused complete relaxation and also produced a shift in the Ca++ concentration-response curves (CRCs) towards right, similar to diltiazem. In rabbit trachea, the plant extract completely inhibited K+ (80 mM) and carbachol (CCh, 1 μM)-induced contractions at 1 mg/ml but pretreatment of tissue with propranolol (1 μM), caused around 10 fold shift in the inhibitory CRCs of the plant extract constructed against CCh-induced contraction. The plant extract (up to 0.3 mg/ml) also increased both force and rate of spontaneous contractions of isolated guinea-pig atria, followed by relaxation at higher concentration (1.0-5.0 mg/ml). The cardio-stimulant effect was abolished in the presence of propranolol, similar to that of isoprenaline. Activity-directed fractionation revealed that the spasmolytic component(s) was separated in the organic fraction, whereas the spasmogenic component was concentrated in the aqueous fraction. Conclusion These results indicate that A. spinosus possesses laxative activity partially mediated through cholinergic action. The spasmolytic effect was mediated through calcium channel blocking (CCB), while bronchodilator activity through a combination of β-adrenergic and CCB pathways, which may explain the traditional uses of A. spinosus in gut and airways disorders

Antispasmodic and vasodilator activities of Morinda citrifolia root extract are mediated through blockade of voltage dependent calcium channels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Morinda citrifolia </it>(Noni) is an edible plant with wide range of medicinal uses. It occurs exclusively in tropical climate zone from India through Southeast Asia and Australia to Eastern Polynesia and Hawaii. The objective of this study was to explore the possible mode(s) of action for its antispasmodic, vasodilator and cardio-suppressant effects to rationalize its medicinal use in gut and cardiovascular disorders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Isolated tissue preparations such as, rabbit jejunum, rat and rabbit aorta and guinea pig atria were used to test the antispasmodic and cardiovascular relaxant effects and the possible mode of action(s) of the 70% aqueous-ethanolic extract of <it>Morinda citrifolia </it>roots (Mc.Cr).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Mc.Cr produced a concentration-dependent relaxation of spontaneous and high K⁺induced contractions in isolated rabbit jejunum preparations. It also caused right ward shift in the concentration response curves of Ca⁺⁺, similar to that of verapamil. In guinea-pig right atria, Mc.Cr caused inhibition of both atrial force and rate of spontaneous contractions. In rabbit thoracic aortic preparations, Mc.Cr also suppressed contractions induced by phenylephrine (1.0 μM) in normal- Ca⁺⁺and Ca⁺⁺-free Kerb's solutions and by high K⁺, similar to that of verapamil. In rat thoracic aortic preparations, Mc.Cr also relaxed the phenylephrine (1.0 μM)-induced contractions. The vasodilatory responses were not altered in the presence of L-NAME (0.1 mM) or atropine (1.0 μM) and removal of endothelium.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that the spasmolytic and vasodilator effects of Mc.Cr root extract are mediated possibly through blockade of voltage-dependent calcium channels and release of intracellular calcium, which may explain the medicinal use of <it>Morinda citrifolia </it>in diarrhea and hypertension. However, more detailed studies are required to assess the safety and efficacy of this plant.</p

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions

Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the US. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. Methods We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. Results We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI; 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late-February. Testing capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly however we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact-tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. Conclusions Whilst early adoption of testing and contact-tracing are likely to be important for South Korea’s successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and low number of deaths suggests that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult

Report 12: The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression

The world faces a severe and acute public health emergency due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. How individual countries respond in the coming weeks will be critical in influencing the trajectory of national epidemics. Here we combine data on age-specific contact patterns and COVID-19 severity to project the health impact of the pandemic in 202 countries. We compare predicted mortality impacts in the absence of interventions or spontaneous social distancing with what might be achieved with policies aimed at mitigating or suppressing transmission. Our estimates of mortality and healthcare demand are based on data from China and high-income countries; differences in underlying health conditions and healthcare system capacity will likely result in different patterns in low income settings. We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategies focussing on shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half, saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed. This effect is likely to be most severe in lower income settings where capacity is lowest: our mitigated scenarios lead to peak demand for critical care beds in a typical low-income setting outstripping supply by a factor of 25, in contrast to a typical high-income setting where this factor is 7. As a result, we anticipate that the true burden in low income settings pursuing mitigation strategies could be substantially higher than reflected in these estimates. Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could be saved. Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved. We do not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression, which will be high and may be disproportionately so in lower income settings. Moreover, suppression strategies will need to be maintained in some manner until vaccines or effective treatments become available to avoid the risk of later epidemics. Our analysis highlights the challenging decisions faced by all governments in the coming weeks and months, but demonstrates the extent to which rapid, decisive and collective action now could save millions of lives

The HLA class II allele DRB1*1501 is over-represented in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and medically refractory lung disease with a grim prognosis. Although the etiology of IPF remains perplexing, abnormal adaptive immune responses are evident in many afflicted patients. We hypothesized that perturbations of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele frequencies, which are often seen among patients with immunologic diseases, may also be present in IPF patients. Methods/Principal Findings: HLA alleles were determined in subpopulations of IPF and normal subjects using molecular typing methods. HLA-DRB1*15 was over-represented in a discovery cohort of 79 Caucasian IPF subjects who had lung transplantations at the University of Pittsburgh (36.7%) compared to normal reference populations. These findings were prospectively replicated in a validation cohort of 196 additional IPF subjects from four other U.S. medical centers that included both ambulatory patients and lung transplantation recipients. High-resolution typing was used to further define specific HLA-DRB1*15 alleles. DRB1*1501 prevalence in IPF subjects was similar among the 143 ambulatory patients and 132 transplant recipients (31.5% and 34.8%, respectively, p = 0.55). The aggregate prevalence of DRB1*1501 in IPF patients was significantly greater than among 285 healthy controls (33.1% vs. 20.0%, respectively, OR 2.0; 95%CI 1.3-2.9, p = 0.0004). IPF patients with DRB1*1501 (n = 91) tended to have decreased diffusing capacities for carbon monoxide (DLCO) compared to the 184 disease subjects who lacked this allele (37.8±1.7% vs. 42.8±1.4%, p = 0.036). Conclusions/Significance: DRB1*1501 is more prevalent among IPF patients than normal subjects, and may be associated with greater impairment of gas exchange. These data are novel evidence that immunogenetic processes can play a role in the susceptibility to and/or manifestations of IPF. Findings here of a disease association at the HLA-DR locus have broad pathogenic implications, illustrate a specific chromosomal area for incremental, targeted genomic study, and may identify a distinct clinical phenotype among patients with this enigmatic, morbid lung disease

Report 11: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment

The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. As of 20 March 2020, over 254,000 cases and 10,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. The outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. At the peak of the outbreak in China (early February), there were between 2,000 and 4,000 new confirmed cases per day. For the first time since the outbreak began there have been no new confirmed cases caused by local transmission in China reported for five consecutive days up to 23 March 2020. This is an indication that the social distancing measures enacted in China have led to control of COVID-19 in China. These interventions have also impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic is not yet clear. Here, we estimate transmissibility from reported cases and compare those estimates with daily data on within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the 5 provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation is no longer apparent even though within-city movement has started to increase. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. These results do not preclude future epidemics in China, nor do they allow us to estimate the maximum proportion of previous within-city activity that will be recovered in the medium term. However, they do suggest that after very intense social distancing which resulted in containment, China has successfully exited their stringent social distancing policy to some degree. Globally, China is at a more advanced stage of the pandemic. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in China and the exiting strategies that followed can inform decision making processes for countries once containment is achieved