Evaluating and Calibrating Uncertainty Prediction in Regression Tasks

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications, and in particular, safety-critical ones. In this work, we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for the calibration of regression uncertainty has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets

Paroxysmal Slow-Wave Events Are Uncommon in Parkinson’s Disease

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is currently considered to be a multisystem neurodegenerative disease that involves cognitive alterations. EEG slowing has been associated with cognitive decline in various neurological diseases, such as PD, Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and epilepsy, indicating cortical involvement. A novel method revealed that this EEG slowing is composed of paroxysmal slow-wave events (PSWE) in AD and epilepsy, but in PD it has not been tested yet. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the presence of PSWE in PD as a biomarker for cortical involvement. Methods: 31 PD patients, 28 healthy controls, and 18 juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) patients (served as positive control), underwent four minutes of resting-state EEG. Spectral analyses were performed to identify PSWEs in nine brain regions. Mixed-model analysis was used to compare between groups and brain regions. The correlation between PSWEs and PD duration was examined using Spearman’s test. Results: No significant differences in the number of PSWEs were observed between PD patients and controls (p > 0.478) in all brain regions. In contrast, JME patients showed a higher number of PSWEs than healthy controls in specific brain regions (p < 0.023). Specifically in the PD group, we found that a higher number of PSWEs correlated with longer disease duration. Conclusions: This study is the first to examine the temporal characteristics of EEG slowing in PD by measuring the occurrence of PSWEs. Our findings indicate that PD patients who are cognitively intact do not have electrographic manifestations of cortical involvement. However, the correlation between PSWEs and disease duration may support future studies of repeated EEG recordings along the disease course to detect early signs of cortical involvement in PD

Swallowing disturbance questionnaire for detecting dysphagia,”

Abstract: Underreporting of swallowing disturbances by Parkinson&apos;s disease (PD) patients may lead to delay in diagnosis and treatment, alerting the physician to an existing dysphagia only after the first episode of aspiration pneumonia. We developed and validated a swallowing disturbance questionnaire (SDQ) for PD patients and compared its findings to an objective assessment. Fifty-seven PD patients (mean age 69 Ϯ 10 years) participated in this study. Each patient was queried about experiencing swallowing disturbances and asked to complete a self-reported 15-item &quot;yes/no&quot; questionnaire on swallowing disturbances (24 replied &quot;no&quot;). All study patients underwent a physical/clinical swallowing evaluation by a speech pathologist and an otolaryngologist. The 33 patients who complained of swallowing disturbances also underwent fiberoptic endoscopyic evaluation of swallowing (FEES). According to the ROC test, the &quot;optimal&quot; score (where the sensitivity and specificity curves cross) is 11 (sensitivity 80.5%, specificity 81.3%). Using the SDQ questionnaire substantially reduced Type I errors (specifically, an existing swallowing problem missed by the selected cutoff point). On the basis of the SDQ assessment alone, 12 of the 24 (50%) noncomplaining patients would have been referred to further evaluation that they otherwise would not have undergone. The SDQ emerged as a validated tool to detect early dysphagia in PD patients

West Nile Fever Outbreak, Israel, 2000: Epidemiologic Aspects

From August 1 to October 31, 2000, 417 cases of West Nile (WN) fever were serologically confirmed throughout Israel; 326 (78%) were hospitalized patients. Cases were distributed throughout the country; the highest incidence was in central Israel, the most populated part. Men and women were equally affected, and their mean age was 54±23.8 years (range 6 months to 95 years). Incidence per 1,000 population increased from 0.01 in the 1st decade of life to 0.87 in the 9th decade. There were 35 deaths (case-fatality rate 8.4%), all in patients >50 years of age. Age-specific case-fatality rate increased with age. Central nervous system involvement occurred in 170 (73%) of 233 hospitalized patients. The countrywide spread, number of hospitalizations, severity of the disease, and high death rate contrast with previously reported outbreaks in Israel