Fragility exposure index: concepts, measurement, and application

Definitions of fragility are focused at the level of the state, but this should not be considered to suggest that individuals with heterogeneous endowments experience a state of fragility in the same way. Nor does it suggest that all subregions of a fragile country exist in this state. In turn, experience of fragility varies not just at national level but also between districts and between individuals. To test this idea, we develop a fragility exposure module, which was inserted into the standard house-hold survey. We consider three components of fragility: human security, economic inclusion, and social cohesion. We index data collected from a survey in Kenya. We show that experience of fragility in Kenya is in the midrange for most individuals, with notable heterogeneities. Those living in Nairobi experience higher levels of fragility than those in other areas. Young people experience higher levels of fragility than older individuals. We find no evidence of overall differences between men and women. These findings demonstrate the importance of capturing the experience of fragility at the individual level. More specifically, they also provide an important base to understanding which groups would benefit most from pro- stability interventions and for testing the performance of such interventions

Nudging children toward healthier food choices: An experiment combining school and home gardens

School gardens have become a widely used approach to influence children's food knowledge, preferences and choices in low- and high-income countries alike. However, evidence indicates that such programs are more effective at influencing food knowledge and preferences than actual food choices. Such finding may occur because school gardens insufficiently influence the food behavior of parents and because healthy food items are not always available in children's homes. We tested this hypothesis using a one-year cluster randomized controlled trial in Nepal with 15 treatment and 15 control schools and a matched sample of 779 schoolchildren (aged 8–12) and their caregivers. Data were collected before and after the intervention during the 2018–2019 school year. In addition, children's food consumption was monitored using a monthly food logbook. Average treatment effects were quantified with a double-difference estimator. For caregivers, the intervention led to a 26% increase in their food and nutrition knowledge (p < 0.001), a 5% increase in their agricultural knowledge (p = 0.022), a 10% increase in their liking for vegetables (p < 0.001), and a 15% increase in home garden productivity (p = 0.073). For children, the intervention had no discernible effect on food and nutrition knowledge (p = 0.666) but led to a 6% increase in their liking for vegetables (p = 0.070), healthy food practices (p < 0.001), and vegetable consumption (October–December +15%; p = 0.084; January–March +26%; p = 0.017; April–June +26%; p = 0.088). The results therefore indicate both schools and parents matter for nudging children toward healthier food choices

Drivers of food choice among children and caregivers in post-earthquake Nepal

Food systems in many countries are experiencing a shift from traditional foods towards processed foods high in sugar, fat and salt, but low in dietary fiber and micronutrients. There is an urgent need to better understand drivers of changing food behavior, particularly for lower-income countries. This study analyzes drivers of food choice among children and parents in rural Nepal. It uses qualitative data collected through key informant interviews and focus group discussions with school children, parents and teachers. The study reveals substantial changes in food behavior during the past decade with increased consumption of rice, meat, and highly processed snack foods while an increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is not evident. It identifies cash availability is the main driver of increased rice, meat and snack food consumption. The second driver is the 2015 Nepal earthquake, which accelerated the transition from home-grown food to purchased food as people got habituated to eating more meat and snack foods while reconstruction tripled local wages and changed the food environment. This shows how humanitarian assistance in the wake of extreme shocks can unintentionally contribute to unhealthy eating habits. An integrated school and home garden intervention appears to contribute to healthier diets

Long-term behavioural impact of an integrated home garden intervention: evidence from Bangladesh

Integrated home garden interventions combine training in gardening practices with education about nutrition knowledge. Such interventions have been shown to improve nutrition behaviour in low income countries. However, to date rigorous evidence is lacking for their long-term impact. We test the impact of an integrated home garden intervention on vegetable production and consumption three years after the intervention ended. We analyse three rounds of survey data for 224 control and 395 intervention households in rural Bangladesh. Three years after the intervention, the average impact on vegetable production per household was 43 kg/year (+49% over baseline levels; p < 0.01), and the effect was not statistically different from the impact one year after the intervention, which demonstrates that impact was maintained in the long-term. The impact on the micronutrient supply for iron, zinc, folate and pro-vitamin A from home gardens was maintained in the long term. These impacts may have been driven by the long-term improvements in women’s nutrition knowledge and gardening practices, explaining the sustainability of the behavioural nutrition change. We also identify positive impacts on women’s empowerment and women’s output market participation, highlighting how integrated programs, even if modest in scope, can be drivers of social change

Empirical Advances in the Measurement and Analysis of Violent Conflict

Gewaltsamer Konflikt ist eine der hartnäckigsten Bedrohungen des Lebensunterhalts und der Nahrungssicherheit von Individuen weltweit. Trotz einer wachsenden Literatur, die die Ursachen und Folgen von Konflikten untersucht, bestehen nach wie vor erhebliche Verständnislücken, die zum Teil auf einen Mangel an qualitativ hochwertigen Konfliktereignisdaten zurückgehen. Mit Hilfe moderner ökonometrischer und statistischer Methoden trägt diese Monographie empirisch zur Literatur bei, indem sie sich mit drei miteinander verknüpften Themen befasst: (i) die Auswirkungen von Gewalterfahrungen auf Radikalisierung; (ii) das Ausmaß von Verzerrungen ("bias") in medienbasierten Konfliktereignisdaten; sowie (iii) die Rolle von Gewalt in benachbarten Gebieten für die Vorhersage von Ausbruch und Eskalation von Konflikten. Erstens zeigt eine Analyse des Gaza-Krieges von 2009, dass Menschen, die Gewalt direkt ausgesetzt sind, radikale Gruppen im Durchschnitt weniger unterstützen. Wenn frühere Wahlpräferenzen statistisch einbezogen werden, besitzt Gewalt jedoch eine polarisierende Wirkung im Wahlverhalten. Zweitens schätzt eine Auswertung syrischer Konfliktereignisdaten basierend auf internationalen und nationalen Quellen, dass Medien über nur knapp zehn Prozent der auftretenden Ereignisse berichten. Zudem ist die Berichterstattung stark räumlich und nach Konflikt-Akteuren verzerrt. Drittens stellt sich anhand von Paneldaten kleiner geographischer Zellen heraus, dass die räumliche und zeitliche Dynamik von Gewalt starken Einfluss auf sowohl den Ausbruch als auch die Eskalation von Konflikten an einem bestimmten Ort hat. In hochaufgelösten Analysen erhöht Gewalt in benachbarten Raumzellen jedoch nicht die Vorhersagekraft des Modells. Auf Grundlage der empirischen Befunde entwickelt diese Arbeit eine neue Methode zur Erhebung von Konfliktdaten, die auf direkte Informationsquellen vor Ort zurückgreift ("crowdseeding"), um Politik und Forschung verlässlichere Daten zu bieten.Violent conflict is one of the most persistent challenges affecting the economic livelihoods and food security of individuals worldwide. Despite the surge in literature studying the impacts and drivers of armed conflict, there remains notable knowledge and methodological gaps, particularly regarding the quality of conflict event data. Using various advanced econometric and statistical techniques, this monograph contributes empirically to this literature by studying three interrelated issues. (i) The impact of violence exposure on radicalization; (ii) the magnitude of selection and veracity biases in media-based conflict event data; and (iii) the significance of incorporating violence in nearby locations in predicting armed conflict onset and escalation. First, evidence from the 2009 war on Gaza shows that individuals who experienced violence directly are less likely, on average, to support radical groups. However, when controlling for past electoral preferences, the results reveal a polarization effect among voters exposed directly to violence. Second, by matching conflict event data from several international and national media sources on the Syrian war, media reports are found to capture less than 10\% of the estimated total number of events in the study period. Moreover, reported events across the sources exhibit a systematic spatial clustering and actor-specific biases. Third, using a grid-level panel dataset, the temporal and spatial dynamics of violence, among other geographic factors, are found to significantly drive both conflict onset and escalation. However, violence in neighbouring grids does not enhance the prediction of armed conflict when using high precision units of analysis. In addition to these main findings, I propose and discuss a novel methodology, namely crowdseeding, for collecting conflict event data which works directly with primary sources on the ground to provide reliable information for researchers and policy-makers alike

IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 54 Rural youth in the context of fragility and conflict

Despite accounting for only 7 per cent of the world’s population, rural youth account for more than 10 per cent of the world’s conflict-exposed population. In 2016, alone, over 350 million rural youth lived in conflict-affected countries. Despite conflict’s being defined as “development in reverse”, however, we find a general lack of research focusing specifically on young people living in rural areas. Yet, from wider literature, we know that conflict is a cause of adversities across a range of economic and non-economic indicators. When young people experience violence in consecutive life stages, adversities from one stage – such as weakened education – can be carried forward into subsequent life stages - such as transition to employment. In this background paper, we show that exposure to violence increases infant mortality, reduces birthweight, harms child health, damages human capital accumulation, restricts performance in education and interacts negatively with labour market opportunities. Despite this accumulated knowledge, however, we note that key knowledge gaps remain, especially when it comes to understanding the programmes that can mitigate the damage exposure to conflict causes. There is, therefore, an urgent need to understand how and why exposure to conflict harms the lives of rural youth, and perhaps more importantly, how it harms those lives differently from those of other socio-demographic groups. Given that rural youth are disproportionately affected by conflict, there is also a need for the design of, and learning from, programmes that are specifically targeted at protecting and empowering rural youth during the post-conflict phase

Effect of an Integrated School Garden and Home Garden Intervention on Anemia Among School-Aged Children in Nepal: Evidence From a Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial

This publication is with permission of the rights owner (Sage) freely accessible.Background: Integrated school and home garden interventions can improve health outcomes in low-income countries, but rigorous evidence remains scarce, particularly for school-aged children and to reduce anemia. Objective: We test if an integrated school and home garden intervention, implemented at pilot stage, improves hemoglobin levels among school children (aged 9-13 years) in a rural district in the mid-hills of Nepal. Methods: We use a cluster randomized controlled trial with 15 schools each in the control and treatment groups (n = 680 school children). To test if nutritional improvements translate into a reduction of anemia prevalence, hemoglobin data were collected 6 months after intervention support had ended. Using structural equation modeling, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of the treatment through several pathways, including nutritional knowledge, good food and hygiene practices, and dietary diversity. Results: The integrated school and home garden intervention did not lead to a direct significant reduction in anemia. Causal positive changes of the treatment on nutritional outcomes, although significant, are not strong enough to impact hemoglobin levels. The program improved hemoglobin levels indirectly for children below 12 by increasing the use of good food and hygiene practices at home. These practices are associated with higher hemoglobin levels, particularly for girls, young children, and in households where caregivers are literate. Conclusions: Even integrated school and home garden interventions are not sufficient to reduce anemia among school children. Incorporating behavioral change components around food and hygiene practices into integrated garden interventions is important to unlocking their health impacts.Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation https://doi.org/10.13039/100000865Peer Reviewe

The life with corona survey

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis affecting everyone. Yet, its challenges and countermeasures vary significantly over time and space. Individual experiences of the pandemic are highly heterogeneous and its impacts span and interlink multiple dimensions, such as health, economic, social and political impacts. Therefore, there is a need to disaggregate “the pandemic”: analysing experiences, behaviours and impacts at the micro level and from multiple disciplinary perspectives. Such analyses require multi-topic pan-national survey data that are collected continuously and can be matched with other datasets, such as disease statistics or information on countermeasures. To this end, we introduce a new dataset that matches these desirable properties - the Life with Corona (LwC) survey - and perform illustrative analyses to show the importance of such micro data to understand how the pandemic and its countermeasures shape lives and societies over time.publishe

The life with corona survey

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis affecting everyone. Yet, its challenges and countermeasures vary significantly over time and space. Individual experiences of the pandemic are highly heterogeneous and its impacts span and interlink multiple dimensions, such as health, economic, social and political impacts. Therefore, there is a need to disaggregate “the pandemic”: analysing experiences, behaviours and impacts at the micro level and from multiple disciplinary perspectives. Such analyses require multi-topic pan-national survey data that are collected continuously and can be matched with other datasets, such as disease statistics or information on countermeasures. To this end, we introduce a new dataset that matches these desirable properties - the Life with Corona (LwC) survey - and perform illustrative analyses to show the importance of such micro data to understand how the pandemic and its countermeasures shape lives and societies over time