Precarious Economies: Exploring the Use of Environmental Indicators to Predict Economic Instability

On August 5th, 2011 the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) international credit bureau, one of three agencies that provide national credit assessments of a country’s ability to take on and pay down debt, downgraded the United States’ credit rating from its highest level, AAA+, to its second best rating, AA+. The downgrade marked the first time in history that the U.S. did not receive the highest rating from any of the three credit scoring firms. The S&P report limited its critique of the U.S. economy to the current fiscal crisis. However, this paper speculates that the economic failings that led to the downgrade could perhaps have been foreseen by observing specific environmental indicators. In particular, national petroleum consumption, CO2 emissions per capita (both high, in the case of the U.S.), and the return on investment that a nation receives for its pollution (annual GDP/annual CO2 emissions; low, in the case of the U.S.) could be useful environmental indicators of a country's future fiscal performance. Moreover, these environmental indicators may be a sort of “early warning” system that can predict a nation’s financial collapse before it is predicted by standard financial indicators (such as debt levels). This article suggests a possible mechanism for such a link, and uses these indicators to speculate which other AAA+ countries may be the next to encounter fiscal challenges that lead to credit downgrades

Exploring Producers\u27, Staff Members\u27, and Board Members\u27 Cognitive Frame on Decision Making in an Appalachian Organic Farming Venture

Sustainable development assistance organizations (SDAOs) aim to help producers of natural resource products move their goods and services to market. This article explores how the cognitive frames held by producers, staff, and board members in an agricultural SDAO in rural Appalachia influence organizational decision-making. This study explores identity, characterization, value, and membership frames. Data collected through semi-structured interviews with growers, staff, and board members reveal that the frames these stakeholders hold lead to the institutionalization of decision-making processes that allow organizational managers to make quick, consistent, and clear decisions while avoiding conflicts among members who hold competing frames. Simultaneously, these tacitly-supported practices are exclusionary, and they limit creativity and information exchange, as well as reducing transparency. Consequently, the SDAO may face organizational challenges due to limited problem-solving and adaptive management capabilities. Additionally, the prevailing nature of some members’ frames may prevent other participants from changing their views of the SDAO, limiting the firm’s flexibility to experiment with new management and organizational structures and resilience in the face of change

Precarious Economies: Exploring the Use of Environmental Indicators to Predict Economic Instability

On August 5th, 2011 the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) international credit bureau, one of three agencies that provide national credit assessments of a country’s ability to take on and pay down debt, downgraded the United States’ credit rating from its highest level, AAA+, to its second best rating, AA+. The downgrade marked the first time in history that the U.S. did not receive the highest rating from any of the three credit scoring firms. The S&P report limited its critique of the U.S. economy to the current fiscal crisis. However, this paper speculates that the economic failings that led to the downgrade could perhaps have been foreseen by observing specific environmental indicators. In particular, national petroleum consumption, CO2 emissions per capita (both high, in the case of the U.S.), and the return on investment that a nation receives for its pollution (annual GDP/annual CO2 emissions; low, in the case of the U.S.) could be useful environmental indicators of a country's future fiscal performance. Moreover, these environmental indicators may be a sort of “early warning” system that can predict a nation’s financial collapse before it is predicted by standard financial indicators (such as debt levels). This article suggests a possible mechanism for such a link, and uses these indicators to speculate which other AAA+ countries may be the next to encounter fiscal challenges that lead to credit downgrades