State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy

This paper presents a test of the response of stock prices to Federal Reserve policy shocks using a Markov-switching framework. The framework endogenously identifies two distinct regimes. The first is a state where the S&P 500 index exhibits a significantly negative response to unexpected changes in the target federal funds rate in the thirty-minute window bracketing FOMC announcements, a result consistent with previous work. However, the model identifies a second regime from September 1998 to September 2002, in which the response of stock prices to policy shocks is insignificant and over ten times more volatile relative to the other regime.�

Arctic system on trajectory to new state

The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacial-interglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state

The common marmoset genome provides insight into primate biology and evolution

We report the whole-genome sequence of the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus). The 2.26-Gb genome of a female marmoset was assembled using Sanger read data (6×) and a whole-genome shotgun strategy. A first analysis has permitted comparison with the genomes of apes and Old World monkeys and the identification of specific features that might contribute to the unique biology of this diminutive primate, including genetic changes that may influence body size, frequent twinning and chimerism. We observed positive selection in growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor genes (growth pathways), respiratory complex I genes (metabolic pathways), and genes encoding immunobiological factors and proteases (reproductive and immunity pathways). In addition, both protein-coding and microRNA genes related to reproduction exhibited evidence of rapid sequence evolution. This genome sequence for a New World monkey enables increased power for comparative analyses among available primate genomes and facilitates biomedical research application. © 2014 Nature America, Inc

Weather and Financial Risk-Taking: Is Happiness the Channel?

Weather variables, and sunshine in particular, are found to be strongly correlated with financial variables. I consider self-reported happiness as a channel through which sunshine affects financial variables. I examine the influence of happiness on risk-taking behavior by instrumenting individual happiness with regional sunshine, and I find that happy people appear to be more risk-averse in financial decisions, and accordingly choose safer investments. Happy people take more time for making decisions and have more self-control. Happy people also expect to live longer and accordingly seem more concerned about the future than the present, and expect less inflation

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock: 2008

SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Monetary Policy, the Bond Market, and Changes in FOMC Communication Policy

Using high-frequency data in a Markov-switching framework, we identify states that imply different responses of the yield curve to unexpected changes in the federal funds target. Empirical estimates reveal a low-volatility state where long-term bonds respond significantly, and in a predictable manner, to unexpected changes in the federal funds target. An alternative state exists with higher volatility, where unexpected changes in the federal funds target raise the short-end of the yield curve, but have no significant effect on the long-end. The low-volatility state for long-term bonds occurs from September 1995 to May 1999 and again from March 2000 to January 2002. The timing of the switches between the two states for long-term bonds coincides with changes in FOMC communication policy - though not all changes in communications policy induce a switch.Monetary Policy, Bond Market, Markov-Switching, Central Bank Communications

Yes, Wall Street, There Is a January Effect! Evidence from Laboratory Auctions

In the first experimental test of the January effect, we find an economically large and statistically significant result in two very different auction environments. After controlling for variables that could influence subjectsÕ bids such as differences in private values, cumulative earnings, and learning effects, the prices in the January markets were systematically higher than those in December. The results suggest that psychological factors may contribute to the well-documented January effect in empirical stock market data, a conclusion that clearly violates the efficient markets hypothesis.