Modelling the potential non-breeding distribution of Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea

SummaryThe Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea is a ‘Critically Endangered’ migratory shorebird. The species faces an array of threats in its non-breeding range, making conservation intervention essential. However, conservation efforts are reliant on identifying the species’ key stopover and wintering sites. Using Maximum Entropy models, we predicted Spoon-billed Sandpiper distribution across the non-breeding range, using data from recent field surveys and satellite tracking. Model outputs suggest only a limited number of stopover sites are suitable for migrating birds, with sites in the Yellow Sea and on the Jiangsu coast in China highlighted as particularly important. All the previously known core wintering sites were identified by the model including the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Nan Thar Island and the Gulf of Mottama. In addition, the model highlighted sites subsequently found to be occupied, and pinpointed potential new sites meriting investigation, notably on Borneo and Sulawesi, and in parts of India and the Philippines. A comparison between the areas identified as most likely to be occupied and protected areas showed that very few locations are covered by conservation designations. Known sites must be managed for conservation as a priority, and potential new sites should be surveyed as soon as is feasible to assess occupancy status. Site protection should take place in concert with conservation interventions including habitat management, discouraging hunting, and fostering alternative livelihoods.Field surveys in Russian non-breeding grounds were supported by RSPB, MHS and NABU. Field surveys in Gulf of Mottama partly supported by BBC Wildlife Fund. Satellite tagging data collection partly supported by The Biodiversity Investigation, Observation and Assessment Program (2019 - 2023) of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, RSPB and a private donor. Bangladesh Spoon-billed Sandpiper Conservation Project’s fieldwork in Meghna Estuary (2015 - 2016) supported by RSPB. Data collection by EL partly supported by Basic research program (budgetary funds), projects number АААА-А19-119022190168-8 and АААА-А19-119021990093-8). PT supported by Moscow State University Grant for Leading Scientific Schools "Depository of the Living Systems" in the MSU Development Program framework. TBL was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council UK, and the IAPETUS Doctoral Training Partnership