Economic activity, fiscal, and capital flow dynamics in Bulgaria 2007-2012: fiscal multiplier theory vs. “other things”

When towards the end of 2008 the leading world economies found themselves in the grips of a severe global financial and economic crisis, their governments felt compelled to react. Most of them, especially in North America and Europe, did so by dramatic increases in government spending with two main goals: to bail our failing financial systems and to substitute dropping private demand with pumped-up public demand as a general support for the aggregate. At the same time central banks made large injections of liquidity to pump up the monetary base and thus counteract the severely contracting money multipliers – at the cost of putting on their balances assets of less than prime quality and thus in effect debasing the currencies of the respective economies

Costs and Benefits of Euro Adoption in Bulgaria

This study presents a cost-benefit analysis of euro adoption for the case of Bulgaria. Based on a review of existing similar studies for other East European EU member states, it outlines the basic types of potential costs and benefits of euro adoption, and applies them to the specific Bulgarian economic and economic policy context. The most important relevant features of the Bulgarian economy with respect to the analysis are found to be the catching-up status of the country and the currency board arrangement. In this context the study finds that a net benefit of above 15 % of GDP in a 20 year horizon can be expected for Bulgaria due mainly to enhanced capital inflows and to a smaller extent to a boost in trade with the EU and to higher domestic saving in light of enhanced policy credibility. Along the way the study attempts to draw attention to important nuances which may be of relevance for the analysis of euro adoption in Eastern Europe in general.This is Working Paper D 5.3 for the "FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, EFFICIENCY AND STIMULATION OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH" (FINESS) project, funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities, 7th Framework Programme, European CommissionEuropean Commission, 7th Framework Programme, Grant Agreement No.21726

Regional Policy: Actors, Institutions and Policy Making Structures in Bulgaria in Relation to EU Membership

The paper provides an analytical narrative of Bulgaria’s changes in regional policy-making structures in relation to the country’s joining the EU. The country has undergone several important stages in its regional policy framework and structure since the beginning of its transition to market democracy. First, local self-government is exercised only at the municipal level, with the mezzo-level always representing a de-concentration of central government powers. Second, the mezzo-level of government has been reformed twice, going from 28 districts to 9 regions, and then to 28 districts under 6 planning regions, with the planning regions also undergoing a major revision once so far. This dynamic indicates a regional policy-making structure which is in a state of flux. Over the last decade the single major shaper of these changes has been EU candidacy and membership, mainly through the requirements for NUTS2 regions in relation to cohesion policies. The goal of the paper on Bulgaria is to describe analytically, from the point of view of regional policy analysis, this state of flux and to outline the potential direction the inevitable further changes in the country’s regional policymaking structures and performance may take.European Commission, 6th Framework Programme, Priority 7 "Citizens And Governance In A Knowledge-Based Society", Contract CIT5 02900

SOCCOH National Report Bulgaria

European Commission, 6th Framework Programme, Priority 7 "Citizens And Governance In A Knowledge-Based Society", Contract CIT5 02900

Creating a Regional Policy Network from Tabula Rasa in Bulgaria: the Beginning

European Commission, 6th Framework Programme, Priority 7 "Citizens And Governance In A Knowledge-Based Society", Contract CIT5 02900

Where had Marxism gone? Gauging the impact of alternative ideas in transition Bulgaria

Marxism dominated in Bulgaria for more than forty years until 1989, and then completely vanished from the public discourse within several years. Where has it gone? The present paper addresses this question by noting that even if they are out of the public discourse, remnants of the previously dominant set of ideas should still be found in people’s thinking. It illustrates this general argument by outlining how the survival into postcommunism of a pillar of Marxist economic theory – the labor theory of value – can explain several significant discrepancies between facts and perceptions, called “experience gap”, shown to exist in Bulgaria at the beginning of the 21st century. On the other side, the presence of experience gap in Bulgaria is a factor influencing the availability and the choice of policy options. Thus the Marxist labor theory of value continues to live in people’s minds and still shapes today’s Bulgarian reality

Credibility of the Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Countries

Credibility of an exchange rate policy is one of the most important factors contributing to success or failure of any stabilization program. Authorities usually hope that the public will trust official exchange rate commitments and take decisions regarding domestic currency holdings accordingly. However, as the experience of several countries analyzed in this study shows, this is not always the case. Economic agents behave in line with their own expectations which need not directly reflect central bank's commitments but are most often a combination of official policy and public's own notions regarding its actual future course. There are clear advantages of high credibility of exchange rate policy to the country's disinflation efforts. It can help bring inflation down quicker and reduce inevitable output losses. Naturally, this prompts the question of whether one can quantify credibility and find factors that are affecting it. Various studies found in the literature have attempted to find an answer to this problem. In line with these efforts, our paper tries to shed new light on the issue. It makes use of the new theoretical model specially designed to approximate credibility of exchange rate policy and provides its empirical application for a number of transition economies that have actively used exchange rate policy in their stabilization programs during the 1990s. For each country we present the modelderived coefficient of credibility, draw conclusions from the model's predictions and confront it with the behavior of other macroeconomic indicators. The resulting analysis and discussion enable us to identify a set of possible "independent" factors explaining the developments of credibility. Our paper is composed as follows. Chapter 2 presents the theoretical model and its dynamics. Subsequent chapters are devoted to individual countries and contain empirical estimation of the model and the discussion of results. Chapters 3-10 contain studies of Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova and Georgia. Finally, chapter 11 concludes with summary of results and findings.transition country, credibility, exchange rate

Chapter 13. Economics

This is the post print of a chapter appearing in a larger collection published by Berghahn Books (https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/MishkovaEuropean). Citation: Ganev, Georgy, 2017. "Chapter 13. Economics." In "European regions and boundaries. A conceptual history", eds. Diana Mishkova and Balázs Trencsényi, p. 280-299. Berghahn book