Increased Prevalence of Albuminuria in HIV-Infected Adults with Diabetes

HIV and type 2 diabetes are known risk factors for albuminuria, but no previous reports have characterized albuminuria in HIV-infected patients with diabetes.We performed a cross-sectional study including 73 HIV-infected adults with type 2 diabetes, 82 HIV-infected non-diabetics, and 61 diabetic control subjects without HIV. Serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dL was exclusionary. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin/creatinine ratio >30 mg/g.The prevalence of albuminuria was significantly increased among HIV-infected diabetics (34% vs. 13% of HIV non-diabetic vs. 16% diabetic control, p = 0.005). HIV status and diabetes remained significant predictors of albuminuria after adjusting for age, race, BMI, and blood pressure. Albumin/creatinine ratio correlated significantly with HIV viral load (r = 0.28, p = 0.0005) and HIV-infected subjects with albuminuria had significantly greater cumulative exposure to abacavir (p = 0.01). In an adjusted multivariate regression analysis of HIV-infected subjects, the diagnosis of diabetes (p = 0.003), higher HIV viral load (p = 0.03) and cumulative exposure to abacavir (p = 0.0009) were significant independent predictors of albuminuria.HIV and diabetes appear to have additive effects on albuminuria which is also independently associated with increased exposure to abacavir and HIV viral load. Future research on the persistence, progression and management of albuminuria in this unique at-risk population is needed

Nutritional Evaluation and Optimisation in Neonates: a randomized, double-blind controlled trial of amino acid regimen and intravenous lipid composition in preterm parenteral nutrition

Background: Parenteral nutrition is central to the care of very immature infants. Current international recommendations favor higher amino acid intakes and fish oil–containing lipid emulsions. Objective: The aim of this trial was to compare 1) the effects of high [immediate recommended daily intake (Imm-RDI)] and low [incremental introduction of amino acids (Inc-AAs)] parenteral amino acid delivery within 24 h of birth on body composition and 2) the effect of a multicomponent lipid emulsion containing 30% soybean oil, 30% medium-chain triglycerides, 25% olive oil, and 15% fish oil (SMOF) with that of soybean oil (SO)-based lipid emulsion on intrahepatocellular lipid (IHCL) content. Design: We conducted a 2-by-2 factorial, double-blind, multicenter randomized controlled trial. Results: We randomly assigned 168 infants born at ,31 wk of gestation. We evaluated outcomes at term in 133 infants. There were no significant differences between Imm-RDI and Inc-AA groups for nonadipose mass [adjusted mean difference: 1.0 g (95% CI: 2108, 111 g; P = 0.98)] or between SMOF and SO groups for IHCL [adjusted mean SMOF:SO ratio: 1.1 (95% CI: 0.8, 1.6; P = 0.58]. SMOF does not affect IHCL content. There was a significant interaction (P = 0.05) between the 2 interventions for nonadipose mass. There were no significant interactions between group differences for either primary outcome measure after adjusting for additional confounders. Imm-RDI infants were more likely than Inc-AA infants to have blood urea nitrogen concentrations .7 mmol/L or .10 mmol/L, respectively (75% compared with 49%, P , 0.01; 49% compared with 18%, P , 0.01). Head circumference at term was smaller in the Imm-RDI group [mean difference: 20.8 cm (95% CI: 21.5, 20.1 cm; P = 0.02)]. There were no significant differences in any prespecified secondary outcomes, including adiposity, liver function tests, incidence of conjugated hyperbilirubinemia, weight, length, mortality, and brain volumes. Conclusion: Imm-RDI of parenteral amino acids does not benefit body composition or growth to term and may be harmful. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN29665319 and at eudract.ema.europa.eu as EudraCT 2009-016731-34

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods