Valuing Loss Firms

We hypothesize that when confronted with a loss, investors price earnings conditional on the expected probability of the firm's return to profitability. We show a parsimonious model of one year-ahead loss reversal is useful in predicting the firm's return to profitability. Using the estimated probabilities of loss reversal to define samples of persistent (low probability of reversal) and transitory (high probability of reversal) losses, we show the pricing of losses, as well as their characteristics, varies as a function of their expected probability of reversal. We document a more pronounced stock price response to a transitory loss consistent with investors assessing the likelihood of exercising the abandonment option to be smaller. We also find the market responds negatively to persistent losses, especially in the latter part of the sample period. We also show the results are consistent with investors pricing the components of losses differently depending on the type of loss: they value only the aggregate accruals component of persistent losses and only the aggregate cash flow component of transitory losses. Further analysis shows the result for persistent losses relates to the presence of an increasingly larger R&D component that investors price negatively as if rewarding firms that make larger R&D outlays with larger returns. One consequence of the presence of a growing R&D component implies persistent losses become a weaker indicator of the likelihood of exercising the abandonment option

Estimates of the Magnitude of Financial and Tax Reporting Conflicts

This study examines the tax reporting consequences of financial reporting discretion. Using a matched sample of financial statements with tax returns, I provide estimates of the accuracy of tax return information inferred from financial statements. To examine the tradeoffs between financial and tax reporting, I model the relation discretionary financial accounting accruals have to discretionary federal tax accruals. The methodology takes advantage of the contemporaneous nature of reporting to mitigate econometric problems identified in previous research. I find the extent tax reporting reflects discretionary financial reporting varies dramatically by industry, profitability, and the sign of discretionary accruals. I also find managers are able to undertake tax reducing activities with less of an effect on financial reporting than tax increasing accruals, consistent with recent evidence on the differential growth of book and tax income, and with tax avoidance activities.

Incorporating Financial Statement Information to Improve Forecasts of Corporate Taxable Income

We contribute to the research on the information content of earnings as it applies to the forecasting of economic activity across reporting models. We examine whether publicly available financial statement information is incrementally useful in forecasting confidentially reported taxable income. More precise firm-level taxable income forecasts can improve policymakers’ modeling of the tax system and their ability to analyze the effect of proposed changes in corporate tax law. When aggregated, improved micro-forecasts can also yield more accurate macro-forecasts of corporate taxable income, a significant component of the federal budget. We find that financial statement information improves firm-level estimates of future taxable income by providing more timely information. We also document the usefulness of the deferred tax valuation allowance in improving taxable income estimates for loss firms. Our evidence suggests public financial statement information complements proprietary data to improve estimates of future taxable income for budgetary and policy use

Costly Dividend Signaling: The Case of Loss Firms with Negative Cash Flows

We examine the dividend-signaling hypothesis in a sample of firms for which dividend increases are particularly costly, namely loss firms with negative cash flows. When compared to loss firms with positive cash flows, we find the predictive power of dividend increases for future return on assets to be greater for loss firms with negative cash flows, consistent with the predictive power of the dividend signal being stronger when its cost is higher. Our results provide support for the dividend-signaling hypothesis and have broader implications since loss firms comprise a large and increasing share of publicly-traded firms

Bridging the Reporting Gap: A Proposal for More Informative Reconciling of Book and Tax Income

In this paper we review the history and purpose of the corporation income tax return's Schedule M-1 in light of recent attention to corporate reporting issues. Although the traditional role for the schedule has been to assist the audit process, the reconciliation of book to tax accounting numbers also provides information that is useful to tax analysts. We find the existing tax return Schedule M-1, largely unchanged since its introduction in 1963, provides insufficient detail for complex reconciliation issues. We propose a modified M- 1 to achieve better reconciliation, and discuss the advantages, and disadvantages, of public disclosure of such dat

Costly dividend signaling : the case of lost firms with negative cash flows

Title from cover."January 2004.