22 research outputs found
DFSeer: A visual analytics approach to facilitate model selection for demand forecasting
Selecting an appropriate model to forecast product demand is critical to the
manufacturing industry. However, due to the data complexity, market uncertainty
and users' demanding requirements for the model, it is challenging for demand
analysts to select a proper model. Although existing model selection methods
can reduce the manual burden to some extent, they often fail to present model
performance details on individual products and reveal the potential risk of the
selected model. This paper presents DFSeer, an interactive visualization system
to conduct reliable model selection for demand forecasting based on the
products with similar historical demand. It supports model comparison and
selection with different levels of details. Besides, it shows the difference in
model performance on similar products to reveal the risk of model selection and
increase users' confidence in choosing a forecasting model. Two case studies
and interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability
of DFSeer.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, ACM CHI 202
Effects of word-of-mouth versus traditional marketing: findings from an internet social networking site
The authors study the effect of word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing on member growth at an Internet social networking site and compare it with traditional marketing vehicles. Because social network sites record the electronic invitations from existing members, outbound WOM can be precisely tracked. Along with traditional marketing, WOM can then be linked to the number of new members subsequently joining the site (sign-ups). Because of the endogeneity among WOM, new sign-ups, and traditional marketing activity, the authors employ a vector autoregression (VAR) modeling approach. Estimates from the VAR model show that WOM referrals have substantially longer carryover effects than traditional marketing actions and produce substantially higher response elasticises. Based on revenue from advertising impressions served to a new member, the monetary value of a WOM referral can be calculated; this yields an upper-bound estimate for the financial incentives the firm might offer to stimulate WOM.pre-prin
Discurso de investidura como Doctor Honoris Causa del Profesor Doctor George E. P. Box
Nombrado Doctor Honoris Causa en el acto del DÃa de la Universidad del curso 94/9