The influence of global warming on freshwater plankton communities in Britain

The likely response of freshwater plankton to the direct and indirect effects of sustained global warming are summarized. The increase in CO2 posited by climatologists will have a direct effect on many biological processes, and an even more important indirect effect on the global climate. Lake plankton populations are relatively well buffered against sudden fluctuations in temperature but can react in unexpected ways to seasonal changes in the wind speed, with effects on seasonal growth and succession of plankton. The direc

The influence of global warming on freshwater plankton communites in Britain

If present trends continue, most climatologists agree that theconcentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have doubled bythe year 2050. This increase in C02 will have a direct effect on manybiological processes and an even more important indirect effect on theglobal climate. In Britain, average temperatures may be 3-5°C higherthan they are today and there may be even more pronounced seasonalincreases in temperature. Recent models of global warming (Mitchell1983; Gates 1985; Hansen et al. 1988) suggest that these increases intemperature will be accompanied by more general changes in theweather. The distribution of pressure systems over Northern Europe arealmost certain to change and could bring about very pronouncedregional shifts in the average wind speed

Quantitative analysis of the importance of wind-induced circulation for the spatial structuring of planktonic populations

1. Several studies have shown that wind-induced water movements have an important effect on the spatial distribution of crustacean zooplankton. However, few attempts have been made to quantify the effect of physical processes on these broad-scale patterns. Much of our understanding of this spatial structure has been based on the results of isolated surveys, which do not capture the dynamic nature of the pelagic environment. 2. In this study, we have used a combination of high-speed sampling (at a spatial resolution of 240 m) and spatial data analysis to quantify the factors influencing the horizontal spatial structure of the Daphnia galeata population in Windermere. 3. The results show that lake-wide circulation patterns, as indicated by water temperature, account for 29–47% of the basin-scale spatial variance in D. galeata abundance. However, these patterns are highly dynamic and change in response to the prevailing weather. This lack of temporal persistence means that the results of single-survey sampling campaigns must be interpreted with caution

Program Applicants as a Comparison Group in Evaluating Training Programs: Theory and a Test

The authors begin with a thorough assessment of the many nonexperimental employment and training program evaluation techniques based on non-random comparison groups. These techniques typically use econometric methods to estimate the effects of employment and training programs by using comparison groups from non-program external sources. Then, recognizing the inherent drawbacks in these methods, Bell, Orr, Blomquist and Cain respond by reintroducing an evaluation method first implemented in the 1960s, the use of internal comparison groups consisting of nonparticipating program applicants. These groups include withdrawals, screen-outs and no-shows of the programs being evaluated in order to solve the selection bias problem. By applying to the program, say the authors, nonparticipating applicants reveal themselves to have some of the same difficult-to-measure, personal characteristics that inspire participants to seek help in response to their current economic situation. The methodology of this technique is updated, then tested against the random experimental findings derived from a controlled job training experiment, the AFDC Homemaker-Home Health Aide Demonstrations. Encouraging results are presented along with useful suggestions for designers and implementers of all types of program evaluations.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1080/thumbnail.jp

Workers' health and productivity under occupational heat strain:a systematic review and meta-analysis

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Background Occupational heat strain (ie, the effect of environmental heat stress on the body) directly threatens workers’ ability to live healthy and productive lives. We estimated the effects of occupational heat strain on workers’ health and productivity outcomes. Methods Following PRISMA guidelines for this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed and Embase from database inception to Feb 5, 2018, for relevant studies in any labour environment and at any level of occupational heat strain. No restrictions on language, workers’ health status, or study design were applied. Occupational heat strain was defined using international health and safety guidelines and standards. We excluded studies that calculated effects using simulations or statistical models instead of actual measurements, and any grey literature. Risk of bias, data extraction, and sensitivity analysis were performed by two independent investigators. Six random-effects meta-analyses estimated the prevalence of occupational heat strain, kidney disease or acute kidney injury, productivity loss, core temperature, change in urine specific gravity, and odds of occupational heat strain occurring during or at the end of a work shift in heat stress conditions. The review protocol is available on PROSPERO, registration number CRD42017083271. Findings Of 958 reports identified through our systematic search, 111 studies done in 30 countries, including 447 million workers from more than 40 different occupations, were eligible for analysis. Our meta-analyses showed that individuals working a single work shift under heat stress (defined as wet-bulb globe temperature beyond 22·0 or 24·8°C depending on work intensity) were 4·01 times (95% CI 2·45–6·58; nine studies with 11 582 workers) more likely to experience occupational heat strain than an individual working in thermoneutral conditions, while their core temperature was increased by 0·7°C (0·4–1·0; 17 studies with 1090 workers) and their urine specific gravity was increased by 14·5% (0·0031, 0·0014–0·0048; 14 studies with 691 workers). During or at the end of a work shift under heat stress, 35% (31–39; 33 studies with 13088 workers) of workers experienced occupational heat strain, while 30% (21–39; 11 studies with 8076 workers) reported productivity losses. Finally, 15% (11–19; ten studies with 21721 workers) of individuals who typically or frequently worked under heat stress (minimum of 6 h per day, 5 days per week, for 2 months of the year) experienced kidney disease or acute kidney injury. Overall, this analysis include a variety of populations, exposures, and occupations to comply with a wider adoption of evidence synthesis, but resulted in large heterogeneity in our meta-analyses. Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation analysis revealed moderate confidence for most results and very low confidence in two cases (average core temperature and change in urine specific gravity) due to studies being funded by industry. Interpretation Occupational heat strain has important health and productivity outcomes and should be recognised as a public health problem. Concerted international action is needed to mitigate its effects in light of climate change and the anticipated rise in heat stress

The Gulf Stream position influences the functional composition of phytoplankton in El Gergal reservoir (Spain)

The latitudinal position of the north-wall of the Gulf Stream influences the climatic conditions in the Atlantic North and Western Europe. Southerly movements of the Gulf Stream (low Gulf Stream Index values, GSI) typically induce unstable meteorological conditions in this region, while north displacements of the oceanic current (high GSI values) are associated with stable weather. In the present article we explore a seven years data set including annual GSI, meteorological records and phytoplankton community composition and abundance to demonstrate that the year-to-year changes in the position of the Gulf Stream and its influence on the prevailing weather conditions have an effect on the long-term variability of phytoplankton community in El Gergal reservoir, an ecosystem located in the Atlantic coast of Andalusia (SW Spain). Furthermore, we describe the response of each considered phytoplankton functional groups to changes in the Gulf Stream position. Thus, northerly displacements of the north-wall increased the abundance of H+S1 cyanobacteria through a non-linear function with two marked GSI thresholds. GSI and Lm dinoflagellates abundance depicted a significant positive linear correlation, while groups B + P diatoms abundance was negatively linear correlated with GSI. Groups Y cryptophytes and X1 + J chlorophytes abundance remained nearly constant for most of the studied years but developed an exponential increase at high GSI years. Implications for water quality management are pointed out.Las condiciones climáticas en la fachada Atlántica europea están influidas por las variaciones temporales en la posición latitudinal de la Corriente del Golfo en el océano Atlántico. Así, el desplazamiento hacia el Sur de la Corriente del Golfo (valores bajos del Índice de la Corriente del Golfo, GSI) induce condiciones de inestabilidad meteorológica en la Europa occidental, mientras que los desplazamientos septentrionales de la corriente oceánica (elevados valores del GSI) están asociados con mayor estabilidad meteorológica en esta región. Este artículo estudia la influencia de los cambios interanuales en la posición de la Corriente del Golfo sobre la comunidad fitoplanctónica del embalse de El Gergal, un ecosistema localizado en la costa atlántica andaluza (SW España). Para ello, a lo largo de siete años se han registrado valores anuales de GSI, información meteorológica y datos sobre la composición y biovolumen del fitoplancton. El análisis de esta información permite describir cómo las variaciones anuales en la posición de la Corriente del Golfo afectan a las condiciones meteorológicas en el área de estudio, influyendo de esta manera sobre el biovolumen de cada uno de los grupos funcionales de fitoplancton considerados. Los desplazamientos hacia el Norte de la Corriente del Golfo favorecieron el incremento del biovolumen de cianobacterias de los grupos H + S1 a través de una función no lineal con dos valores críticos de GSI bien definidos. Por su parte, se encontró una relación lineal positiva entre el GSI y el biovolumen de dinoflagelados del grupo Lm, mientras que las diatomeas de los grupos B + P se relacionaron de forma inversa con el GSI. Aunque el biovolumen de clorofitas de los grupos X1 + J y de criptofitas del grupo Y permaneció estable durante la mayor parte de los años estudiados, se registró un notable incremento del mismo en aquellos años en los que el GSI mostró sus valores más elevados. Finalmente se apuntan algunas consideraciones sobre posibles implicaciones en la gestión de la calidad del agua embalsada

Horizontal wavenumber spectra of winds, temperature, and trace gases during the Pacific Exploratory Missions: 1. Climatology

Aircraft-based meteorological and chemical measurements from NASA's Pacific Exploratory Missions provide a suitable database for studying the climatology of horizontal wavenumber spectra in the troposphere overlying an ocean. The wavenumber spectra of trace gas and meteorological quantities aid in identifying the physical processes producing atmospheric structures as well as provide diagnostics for general circulation models. Flight segments were distributed over altitudes ranging from about ∼50 m to 13 km and 70°S to 60°N in latitude. The spectra were averaged according to altitude and latitude regions. The wavelength range covered was typically ∼0.5–100 km. Quantities processed in this way were horizontal velocity, potential temperature, specific humidity, and the mixing ratios of ozone, methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Spectral power and slope (in log-log coordinates) corresponding to the wavelength regime of 6–60 km were tabulated for those measured quantities. The spectral slopes of horizontal velocity and potential temperature were generally close to −5/3 with no transition to a steeper slope at short wavelengths as seen in some other studies. Spectral slopes of the tracer species also ranged around −5/3. This agreement in form of the dynamical and tracer spectra is consistent with both the gravity-wave advection and quasi two-dimensional turbulence models. In the upper troposphere the spectral power for all quantities except specific humidity tended to be greater at latitudes higher than 30° compared to latitudes lower than 30°. This latitudinal trend confirms the earlier results of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NAG1-1758)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NAG1-1901