Improved early detection of ovarian cancer using longitudinal multimarker models

© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Background: Ovarian cancer has a poor survival rate due to late diagnosis and improved methods are needed for its early detection. Our primary objective was to identify and incorporate additional biomarkers into longitudinal models to improve on the performance of CA125 as a first-line screening test for ovarian cancer. Methods: This case–control study nested within UKCTOCS used 490 serial serum samples from 49 women later diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 31 control women who were cancer-free. Proteomics-based biomarker discovery was carried out using pooled samples and selected candidates, including those from the literature, assayed in all serial samples. Multimarker longitudinal models were derived and tested against CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. Results: The best performing models, incorporating CA125, HE4, CHI3L1, PEBP4 and/or AGR2, provided 85.7% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity up to 1 year before diagnosis, significantly improving on CA125 alone. For Type II cases (mostly high-grade serous), models achieved 95.5% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity. Predictive values were elevated earlier than CA125, showing the potential of models to improve lead time. Conclusions: We have identified candidate biomarkers and tested longitudinal multimarker models that significantly improve on CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. These models now warrant independent validation.Peer reviewe

Highly accurate detection of ovarian cancer using CA125 but limited improvement with serum matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry profiling

Objectives: Our objective was to test the performance of CA125 in classifying serum samples from a cohort of malignant and benign ovarian cancers and age-matched healthy controls and to assess whether combining information from matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) time-of-flight profiling could improve diagnostic performance. Materials and Methods: Serum samples from women with ovarian neoplasms and healthy volunteers were subjected to CA125 assay and MALDI time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MS) profiling. Models were built from training data sets using discriminatory MALDI MS peaks in combination with CA125 values and tested their ability to classify blinded test samples. These were compared with models using CA125 threshold levels from 193 patients with ovarian cancer, 290 with benign neoplasm, and 2236 postmenopausal healthy controls. Results: Using a CA125 cutoff of 30 U/mL, an overall sensitivity of 94.8% (96.6% specificity) was obtained when comparing malignancies versus healthy postmenopausal controls, whereas a cutoff of 65 U/mL provided a sensitivity of 83.9% (99.6% specificity). High classification accuracies were obtained for early-stage cancers (93.5% sensitivity). Reasons for high accuracies include recruitment bias, restriction to postmenopausal women, and inclusion of only primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases. The combination of MS profiling information with CA125 did not significantly improve the specificity/accuracy compared with classifications on the basis of CA125 alone. Conclusions: We report unexpectedly good performance of serum CA125 using threshold classification in discriminating healthy controls and women with benign masses from those with invasive ovarian cancer. This highlights the dependence of diagnostic tests on the characteristics of the study population and the crucial need for authors to provide sufficient relevant details to allow comparison. Our study also shows that MS profiling information adds little to diagnostic accuracy. This finding is in contrast with other reports and shows the limitations of serum MS profiling for biomarker discovery and as a diagnostic too

Mortality impact, risks, and benefits of general population screening for ovarian cancer: the UKCTOCS randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage. TRIAL DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. METHODS: Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50-74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer. INTERVENTIONS: One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants. OBJECTIVE: To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population. OUTCOME: Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research. RANDOMISATION: The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio. BLINDING: Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group. ANALYSES: Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test. RESULTS: 1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005. RANDOMISED: 202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group. NUMBERS ANALYSED FOR PRIMARY OUTCOME: 202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group. OUTCOME: Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1-17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI -21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women's Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer. HARMS: Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. CONCLUSIONS: Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests. FUNDING: Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015-2020) - National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-2014) - Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023)

Discovery and validation of serum glycoprotein biomarkers for high grade serous ovarian cancer

Purpose: This study aimed to identify serum glycoprotein biomarkers for early detection of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC), the most common and aggressive histotype of ovarian cancer./ Experimental design: The glycoproteomics pipeline lectin magnetic bead array (LeMBA)-mass spectrometry (MS) was used in age-matched case-control serum samples. Clinical samples collected at diagnosis were divided into discovery (n = 30) and validation (n = 98) sets. We also analysed a set of preclinical sera (n = 30) collected prior to HGSOC diagnosis in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening./ Results: A 7-lectin LeMBA-MS/MS discovery screen shortlisted 59 candidate proteins and three lectins. Validation analysis using 3-lectin LeMBA-multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) confirmed elevated A1AT, AACT, CO9, HPT and ITIH3 and reduced A2MG, ALS, IBP3 and PON1 glycoforms in HGSOC. The best performing multimarker signature had 87.7% area under the receiver operating curve, 90.7% specificity and 70.4% sensitivity for distinguishing HGSOC from benign and healthy groups. In the preclinical set, CO9, ITIH3 and A2MG glycoforms were altered in samples collected 11.1 ± 5.1 months prior to HGSOC diagnosis, suggesting potential for early detection./ Conclusions and clinical relevance: Our findings provide evidence of candidate early HGSOC serum glycoprotein biomarkers, laying the foundation for further study in larger cohorts

Audit of transvaginal sonography of normal postmenopausal ovaries by sonographers from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: We report on a unique audit of seven sonographers self-reporting high visualization rates of normal postmenopausal ovaries in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). This audit was ordered by the trial’s Ultrasound Management Subcommittee after an initiative taken in 2008 to improve the quality of scanning and the subsequent increase in the number of sonographers claiming very high ovary visualisation rates. Methods: Seven sonographers reporting high rates (>89%) of visualizing normal postmenopausal ovaries in examinations performed between 1st January and 31st December 2008 were identified. Eight experts in gynaecological scanning reviewed a random selection of exams performed by these sonographers and assessed whether visualization of both ovaries could be confirmed (cVR-Both) in the examinations. A random effects bivariate probit model was fitted to analyse the results.   Results: The eight experts reviewed images from 357 examinations performed on 349 postmenopausal women (mean age 60.0 years, range 50.2-73.3) by the seven sonographers. The mean cVR-Both obtained from the model for these sonographers was 67.2% with a range of 47.6-86.5% (95%CI 63.9-70.5%). The range of cVR-Both between the experts was 47.3-88.3% and the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for left and right ovary confirmation was 0.39.    Conclusions: The audit suggests that self-reported visualization of postmenopausal ovaries is unreliable, as visualisation of both ovaries could not be confirmed in almost a third of examinations. The agreement for visualization of both ovaries based on review of a static image between experts and sonographers and between expert reviewers alone was only moderate. Further research is needed to develop reliable Quality Control metrics for transvaginal ultrasound

Co-Creation of Breast Cancer Risk Communication Tools and an Assessment of Risk Factor Awareness: A Qualitative Study of Patients and the Public in India

The incidence of breast cancer (BC) is increasing worldwide, and India reported 179,790 cases in 2020. It is important to inform people of risk factors and methods for risk management through interactive risk communication techniques. Affordable, easy-to-understand transmedia tools for the communication of BC risk were co-created by a multidisciplinary team of doctors, clinical researchers, epidemiologists, health economists, digital designers, and public representatives. Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted in regional languages to assess the views of patients, relatives, the public, and health professionals in India of these prototypes. There was low awareness of BC, with some understanding of age and hereditary risk factors but limited knowledge of reproductive factors amongst the general public, patients, and relatives. Participants favored storytelling techniques (animation and comic strips/infographics) to explain complex issues such as genetic risk and testing. Co-created BC risk communication transmedia tools should be used to support informed decision making

Insights from UKCTOCS for design, conduct and analyses of large randomised controlled trials

ABSTRACT: Randomised controlled trials are challenging to deliver. There is a constant need to review and refine recruitment and implementation strategies if they are to be completed on time and within budget. We present the strategies adopted in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, one of the largest individually randomised controlled trials in the world. The trial recruited over 202,000 women (2001-5) and delivered over 670,000 annual screens (2001-11) and over 3 million women-years of follow-up (2001-20). Key to the successful completion were the involvement of senior investigators in the day-to-day running of the trial, proactive trial management and willingness to innovate and use technology. Our underlying ethos was that trial participants should always be at the centre of all our processes. We ensured that they were able to contact either the site or the coordinating centre teams for clarifications about their results, for follow-up and for rescheduling of appointments. To facilitate this, we shared personal identifiers (with consent) with both teams and had dedicated reception staff at both site and coordinating centre. Key aspects were a comprehensive online trial management system which included an electronic data capture system (resulting in an almost paperless trial), biobanking, monitoring and project management modules. The automation of algorithms (to ascertain eligibility and classify results and ensuing actions) and processes (scheduling of appointments, printing of letters, etc.) ensured the protocol was closely followed and timelines were met. Significant engagement with participants ensured retention and low rates of complaints. Our solutions to the design, conduct and analyses issues we faced are highly relevant, given the renewed focus on trials for early detection of cancer. FUTURE WORK: There is a pressing need to increase the evidence base to support decision making about all aspects of trial methodology. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN-22488978; ClinicalTrials.gov-NCT00058032. FUNDING: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 16/46/01. The long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015 20) was supported by National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-14) was funded by the MRC (G9901012 and G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MC_UU_00004/09, MC_UU_00004/08, MC_UU_00004/07). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for ovarian cancer risk prediction in a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified >30 common SNPs associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We evaluated the combined effects of EOC susceptibility SNPs on predicting EOC risk in an independent prospective cohort study. METHODS: We genotyped ovarian cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a nested case-control study (750 cases and 1428 controls) from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed and their associations with EOC risk were evaluated using logistic regression. The absolute risk of developing ovarian cancer by PRS percentiles was calculated. RESULTS: The association between serous PRS and serous EOC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.58, p=1.3×10-11) was stronger than the association between overall PRS and overall EOC risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.45, p=5.4×10-10). Women in the top fifth percentile of the PRS had a 3.4-fold increased EOC risk compared with women in the bottom 5% of the PRS, with the absolute EOC risk by age 80 being 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, for the two groups of women in the population. CONCLUSION: PRSs can be used to predict future risk of developing ovarian cancer for women in the general population. Incorporation of PRSs into risk prediction models for EOC could inform clinical decision-making and health management

Ovarian cancer symptoms, routes to diagnosis and survival – population cohort study in the ‘no screen’ arm of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Objective: There are widespread efforts to increase symptom awareness of ‘pelvic/abdominal pain, increased abdominal size/bloating, difficulty eating/feeling full and urinary frequency/urgency’ in an attempt to diagnose ovarian cancer earlier. Long-term survival of women with these symptoms adjusted for known prognostic factors is yet to be determined. This study explored the association of symptoms, routes and interval to diagnosis and long-term survival in a population-based cohort of postmenopausal women diagnosed with invasive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (iEOC) in the ‘no screen’ (control) UKCTOCS arm. Methods: Of 101,299 women in the control arm, 574 were confirmed on outcome review to have iEOC between randomisation (2001–2005) and 31 December 2014. Data was extracted from medical notes and electronic records. A multivariable model was fitted for individual symptoms, time interval from symptom onset to diagnosis, route to diagnosis, speciality, morphological Type, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis (period effect), stage, primary treatment, and residual disease. Results: Women presenting with symptoms listed in the NICE guidelines (HR1.48, 95%CI1.16–1.89, p = 0.001) or the modified Goff Index (HR1·68, 95%CI1·32–2.13, p < 0.0001) had significantly worse survival than those who did not. Each additional presenting symptom decreased survival (HR1·20, 95%CI1·12–1·28, p < 0.0001). In multivariable analysis, in addition to advanced stage, increasing residual disease and inadequate primary treatment, abdominal pain and loss of appetite/feeling full were significantly associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: The ovarian cancer symptom indices identify postmenopausal women with a poorer prognosis. This study however cannot exclude the possibility of better outcomes in those who are aware and act on their symptoms

Metabolic Profiling of Adiponectin Levels in Adults

Background - Adiponectin, a circulating adipocyte-derived protein, has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory, antiatherogenic, and cardiomyocyte-protective properties in animal models. However, the systemic effects of adiponectin in humans are unknown. Our aims were to define the metabolic profile associated with higher blood adiponectin concentration and investigate whether variation in adiponectin concentration affects the systemic metabolic profile. Methods and Results - We applied multivariable regression in ≤5909 adults and Mendelian randomization (using cis-acting genetic variants in the vicinity of the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables) for analyzing the causal effect of adiponectin in the metabolic profile of ≤37 545 adults. Participants were largely European from 6 longitudinal studies and 1 genome-wide association consortium. In the multivariable regression analyses, higher circulating adiponectin was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein lipids and lower very-low-density lipoprotein lipids, glucose levels, branched-chain amino acids, and inflammatory markers. However, these findings were not supported by Mendelian randomization analyses for most metabolites. Findings were consistent between sexes and after excluding high-risk groups (defined by age and occurrence of previous cardiovascular event) and 1 study with admixed population. Conclusions - Our findings indicate that blood adiponectin concentration is more likely to be an epiphenomenon in the context of metabolic disease than a key determinant