Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model

Physiological functions should be considered as true end points of nutritional intervention studies

With the beginning of this millennium it has become fashionable to only follow ‘evidence-based' practices. This generally-accepted approach cruelly negates experience or intelligent interpretation of pathophysiology. Another problem is that the great ‘meta-analysts' of the present era only accept end points that they consider ‘hard'. In the metabolic and nutritional field these end points are infection-related morbidity and mortality, and all other end points are considered ‘surrogate'. The aim of this presentation is to prove that this claim greatly negates the contribution of more-fundamentally-oriented research, the fact that mortality has multifactorial causes, and that infection is a crude measure of immune function. The following problems should be considered: many populations undergoing intervention have low mortality, requiring studies with thousands of patients to demonstrate effects of intervention on mortality; nutrition is only in rare cases primary treatment, and in many populations is a prerequisite for survival rather than a therapeutic modality; once the effect of nutritional support is achieved, the extra benefit of modulation of the nutritional support regimen can only be modest; cost-benefit is not a valid end point, because the better it is done the more it will cost; morbidity and mortality are crude end points for the effect of nutritional intervention, and are influenced by many factors. In fact, it is a yes or no factor. In the literature the most important contributions include new insights into the pathogenesis of disease, the diminution of disease-related adverse events and/or functional improvement after therapy. In nutrition research the negligence of these end points has precluded the development and validation of functional end points, such as muscle, immune and cognitive functions. Disability, quality of life, morbidity and mortality are directly related to these functional variables. It is, therefore, of paramount importance to validate functional end points and to consider them as primary rather than surrogate end point

Is there an isolated arrhythmogenic right atrial myocarditis?

Two cases with drug refractory ectopic atrial tachycardia are described. A map-guided partial resection of the right atrium (RA) was done after preoperative endocardial catheter mapping hadshown well-defined areas of fractionated RA potentials. Intraoperatively, there were no aneurysmal formations present as described by other authors. Histopathologic examination of the resected tissue showed atrial myocarditis in both patients. Postoperative right ventricular myocardial biopsies revealed no inflammatory tissue. A minor elevation of antibodies against echoviruses was found in one case. Postoperative electrophysiologic studies were negative. We conclude: focal RA myocarditis without concomitant ventricular myocarditis may represent one cause of drug-resistant ectopic atrial tachycardia. Map-guided surgical intervention may cure the diseas

Observational study on the consumption of recreational drugs and alcohol by Swiss travelers.

BACKGROUND: Studies carried out on specific travelers' groups such as students describe an increase in the consumption of alcohol and drugs during travel and vacation time. The present study investigates the risk behaviors (alcohol and drugs) in a general adult population in Switzerland travelling abroad who visited a travel clinic before departure. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in a travel clinic between January 2006 and December 2008. 14,496 patients came to the clinic for a pre-travel consultation. 3,537 of them answered a questionnaire about their life habits in Switzerland and during their last trip. The only exclusion criterion was an age inferior to 18 years old.The consumption habits of drugs and at-risk alcohol intake (8 standard drinks (SD) per week for women and 15 SD for men) was analyzed according to gender, sex, destination and profession. Predictors of adopting a risky behavior between habits in Switzerland and during their previous trip were also analyzed. RESULTS: 7% (229/3477) of participants declared having at-risk alcohol consumption in Switzerland and 14% (473/3275 [95% CI 13-16]) during their trip. 9% (332/3527) of the participants used drugs in Switzerland and 5% (178/3481) during their trip. Risk factors for at-risk alcohol consumption during a trip were: at-risk alcohol consumption in Switzerland (OR 31[95% CI 21-45]), smoking (1.7 [95% CI 1-2]), use of drugs in Switzerland (OR 2.2 [95% CI 2-3]), leisure travel (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1-2]) and managerial professions (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1-3]). Risk factors for the use of drugs during a trip were: alcohol consumption in Switzerland (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1-4]), smoking (OR 1.9 [95% CI 1-3]), and use of drugs in Switzerland (OR 29.7 [95% CI 19-45]). CONCLUSIONS: At-risk alcohol consumption and, to a lesser extent, use of drugs, affect a large number of travelers which expose them to health problems during a trip. Exploring the alcohol and drugs consumption patterns of people visiting a travel clinic should be part of the pre-travel routine consultation and would allow to identifying people who would benefit most from a specific prevention

Rifampicin/Cotrimoxazole/Isoniazid Versus Mefloquine or Quinine + Sulfadoxine- Pyrimethamine for Malaria: A Randomized Trial

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies of a fixed combination including cotrimoxazole, rifampicin, and isoniazid (Cotrifazid) showed efficacy against resistant strains of Plasmodium falciparum in animal models and in small-scale human studies. We conducted a multicentric noninferiority trial to assess the safety and efficacy of Cotrifazid against drug-resistant malaria in Papua New Guinea. DESIGN: The trial design was open-label, block-randomised, comparative, and multicentric. SETTING: The trial was conducted in four primary care health facilities, two in urban and two in rural areas of Madang and East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea. PARTICIPANTS: Patients of all ages with recurrent uncomplicated malaria were included. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive Cotrifazid, mefloquine, or the standard treatment of quinine with sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP). OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of clinical and laboratory adverse events and rate of clinical and/or parasitological failure at day 14 were recorded. RESULTS: The safety analysis population included 123 patients assigned to Cotrifazid, 123 to mefloquine, and 123 to quinine + SP. The Cotrifazid group experienced lower overall incidence of adverse events than the other groups. Among the efficacy analysis population (72 Cotrifazid, 71 mefloquine, and 75 quinine + SP), clinical failure rate (symptoms and parasite load) on day 14 was equivalent for the three groups (0% for Cotrifazid and mefloquine; 1% for quinine + SP), but parasitological failure rate (P. falciparum asexual blood-stage) was higher for Cotrifazid than for mefloquine or quinine + SP (9% [PCR corrected 8%] versus 0% and 3%, respectively [p = 0.02]). CONCLUSION: Despite what appears to be short-term clinical equivalence, the notable parasitological failure at day 14 in both P. falciparum and P. vivax makes Cotrifazid in its current formulation and regimen a poor alternative combination therapy for malaria

Plasmodium vivax and Mixed Infections Are Associated with Severe Malaria in Children: A Prospective Cohort Study from Papua New Guinea

In a study carried out in Papua New Guinea, Blaise Genton and colleagues show thatPlasmodium vivax is associated with severe malaria

Elastic behaviour of the carotid artery in intact spontaneously hypertensive rats

Intact spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) were studied to assess the effect of prolonged antihypertensive treatment on the elastic behaviour of the external carotid artery. Thirty-week-old SHR received the ACE inhibitor captopril, the ateriolar dilator hydralazine or their vehicle for 6 weeks. These rats were compared to normotensive, vehicle treated WKY rats. The internal diameter of the carotid artery was measured continuously in halothane-anaesthetized rats using an echo-tracking device, and intra-arterial pressure was also monitored continuously, on the controlateral side. Captopril- and hydralazinetreated SHR as well as normotensive controls had similar blood pressure values. No significant shift in the distensibility-pressure curves was observed among vehicle-treated SHR and WKY rats or the SHR which had received captopril or hydralazine. Histological examination of the carotid artery fixed ex vivo with paraformaldehyde showed a significant increase in cross-sectional area in vehicle-treated SHR as compared to their normotensive counterparts. These results therefore suggest that the elastic behaviour of elastic arteries is not necessarily altered by the structural changes developing in response to hypertensio

The usefulness of twenty-four molecular markers in predicting treatment outcome with combination therapy of amodiaquine plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine against falciparum malaria in Papua New Guinea

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Papua New Guinea (PNG), combination therapy with amodiaquine (AQ) or chloroquine (CQ) plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) was introduced as first-line treatment against uncomplicated malaria in 2000.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We assessed <it>in vivo </it>treatment failure rates with AQ+SP in two different areas in PNG and twenty-four molecular drug resistance markers of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>were characterized in pre-treatment samples. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between infecting genotype and treatment response in order to identify useful predictors of treatment failure with AQ+SP.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2004, Day-28 treatment failure rates for AQ+SP were 29% in the Karimui and 19% in the South Wosera area, respectively. The strongest independent predictors for treatment failure with AQ+SP were <it>pfmdr1 </it>N86Y (OR = 7.87, <it>p </it>< 0.01) and <it>pfdhps </it>A437G (OR = 3.44, <it>p </it>< 0.01). Mutations found in CQ/AQ related markers <it>pfcrt </it>K76T, A220S, N326D, and I356L did not help to increase the predictive value, the most likely reason being that these mutations reached almost fixed levels. Though mutations in SP related markers <it>pfdhfr </it>S108N and C59R were not associated with treatment failure, they increased the predictive value of <it>pfdhps </it>A437G. The difference in treatment failure rate in the two sites was reflected in the corresponding genetic profile of the parasite populations, with significant differences seen in the allele frequencies of mutant <it>pfmdr1 </it>N86Y, <it>pfmdr1 </it>Y184F, <it>pfcrt </it>A220S, and <it>pfdhps </it>A437G.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study provides evidence for high levels of resistance to the combination regimen of AQ+SP in PNG and indicates which of the many molecular markers analysed are useful for the monitoring of parasite resistance to combinations with AQ+SP.</p