Nonparametric adaptive estimation for pure jump Lévy processes

International audienceThis paper is concerned with nonparametric estimation of the Lévy density of a pure jump Lévy process. The sample path is observed at $n$ discrete instants with fixed sampling interval. We construct a collection of estimators obtained by deconvolution methods and deduced from appropriate estimators of the characteristic function and its first derivative. We obtain a bound for the ${\mathbb L}^2$-risk, under general assumptions on the model. Then we propose a penalty function that allows to build an adaptive estimator. The risk bound for the adaptive estimator is obtained under additional assumptions on the Lévy density. Examples of models fitting in our framework are described and rates of convergence of the estimator are discussed

Estimation of the Jump Size Density in a Mixed Compound Poisson Process

International audienceIn this paper, we consider a mixed compound Poisson process, i.e. a random sum of i.i.d. random variables where the number of terms is a Poisson process with random intensity. We study nonparametric estimators of the jump density by specific deconvolution methods. First, assuming that the random intensity has exponential distribution with unknown expectation , we propose two types of estimators based on the observation of an i.i.d. sample. Risks bounds and adaptive procedures are provided. Then, with no assumption on the distribution of the random intensity, we propose two nonparametric estimators of the jump density based on the joint observation of the number of jumps and the random sum of jumps. Risks bounds are provided, leading to unusual rates for one of the two estimators. The methods are implemented and compared via simulations. February 25, 201

Asymptotic equivalence of discretely observed diffusion processes and their Euler scheme: small variance case

This paper establishes the global asymptotic equivalence, in the sense of the Le Cam $\Delta$-distance, between scalar diffusion models with unknown drift function and small variance on the one side, and nonparametric autoregressive models on the other side. The time horizon $T$ is kept fixed and both the cases of discrete and continuous observation of the path are treated. We allow non constant diffusion coefficient, bounded but possibly tending to zero. The asymptotic equivalences are established by constructing explicit equivalence mappings.Comment: 21 page

Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Hidden Markov Models in continuous time

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain.Comment: Warning: due to a flaw in the publishing process, some of the references in the published version of the article are confuse

Leroux's method for general hidden Markov models

AbstractThe method introduced by Leroux [Maximum likelihood estimation for hidden Markov models, Stochastic Process Appl. 40 (1992) 127–143] to study the exact likelihood of hidden Markov models is extended to the case where the state variable evolves in an open interval of the real line. Under rather minimal assumptions, we obtain the convergence of the normalized log-likelihood function to a limit that we identify at the true value of the parameter. The method is illustrated in full details on the Kalman filter model

An asymptotic sufficiency property of observations related to the first hitting time of a diffusion process

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