Mechanisms behind the temporary shutdown of deep convection in the Labrador Sea : lessons from the Great Salinity Anomaly years 1968–71

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 6743–6755, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00549.1.From 1969 to 1971 convection in the Labrador Sea shut down, thus interrupting the formation of the intermediate/dense water masses. The shutdown has been attributed to the surface freshening induced by the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA), a freshwater anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. The abrupt resumption of convection in 1972, in contrast, is attributed to the extreme atmospheric forcing of that winter. Here oceanic and atmospheric data collected in the Labrador Sea at Ocean Weather Station Bravo and a one-dimensional mixed layer model are used to examine the causes of the shutdown and resumption of convection in detail. These results highlight the tight coupling of the ocean and atmosphere in convection regions and the need to resolve both components to correctly represent convective processes in the ocean. They are also relevant to present-day conditions given the increased ice melt in the Arctic Ocean and from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The analysis herein shows that the shutdown was initiated by the GSA-induced freshening as well as the mild 1968/69 winter. After the shutdown had begun, however, the continuing lateral freshwater flux as well as two positive feedbacks [both associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) decrease due to lack of convective mixing with warmer subsurface water] further inhibited convection. First, the SST decrease reduced the heat flux to the atmosphere by reducing the air–sea temperature gradient. Second, it further reduced the surface buoyancy loss by reducing the thermal expansion coefficient of the surface water. In 1972 convection resumed because of both the extreme atmospheric forcing and advection of saltier waters into the convection region.This research was funded by a grant from the NWO/SRON User Support Programme Space Research. FS acknowledges support from OCE- 0850416 and NOAA NA08OAR4310569.2013-04-0

A continuous pathway for fresh water along the East Greenland shelf

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Foukal, N. P., Gelderloos, R., & Pickart, R. S. A continuous pathway for fresh water along the East Greenland shelf. Science Advances, 6(43), (2020): eabc4254, doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc4254.Export from the Arctic and meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet together form a southward-flowing coastal current along the East Greenland shelf. This current transports enough fresh water to substantially alter the large-scale circulation of the North Atlantic, yet the coastal current’s origin and fate are poorly known due to our lack of knowledge concerning its north-south connectivity. Here, we demonstrate how the current negotiates the complex topography of Denmark Strait using in situ data and output from an ocean circulation model. We determine that the coastal current north of the strait supplies half of the transport to the coastal current south of the strait, while the other half is sourced from offshore via the shelfbreak jet, with little input from the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results indicate that there is a continuous pathway for Arctic-sourced fresh water along the entire East Greenland shelf from Fram Strait to Cape Farewell.Funding for this work comes from the NSF under grant numbers OCE-1756361 and OCE-1558742 (N.P.F. and R.S.P.) and grant numbers OCE-1756863 and OAC-1835640 (R.G.)

Coastal trapped waves and other subinertial variability along the Southeast Greenland coast in a realistic numerical simulation

Ocean currents along the Southeast Greenland Coast play an important role in the climate system. They carry dense water over the Denmark Strait sill, fresh water from the Arctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet into the subpolar ocean, and warm Atlantic water into Greenland’s fjords, where it can interact with outlet glaciers. Observational evidence from moorings shows that the circulation in this region displays substantial subinertial variability (typically with periods of several days). For the dense water flowing over the Denmark Strait sill, this variability augments the time-mean transport. It has been suggested that the subinertial variability found in observations is associated with Coastal Trapped Waves, whose properties depend on bathymetry, stratification, and the mean flow. Here, we use the output of a high-resolution realistic simulation to diagnose and characterize subinertial variability in sea surface height and velocity along the coast. The results show that the subinertial signals are coherent over hundreds of kilometers along the shelf. We find Coastal Trapped Waves on the shelf and along the shelf break in two subinertial frequency bands—at periods of 1–3 days and 5–18 days—that are consistent with a combination of Mode I waves and higher modes. Furthermore, we find that northeasterly barrier winds may trigger the 5–18 day shelf waves, whereas the 1–3 day variability is linked to high wind speeds over Sermilik Deep

Lagrangian perspective on the origins of Denmark Strait Overflow

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8), (2020): 2393-2414, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0210.1.The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is an important contributor to the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Determining DSO formation and its pathways is not only important for local oceanography but also critical to estimating the state and variability of the AMOC. Despite prior attempts to understand the DSO sources, its upstream pathways and circulation remain uncertain due to short-term (3–5 days) variability. This makes it challenging to study the DSO from observations. Given this complexity, this study maps the upstream pathways and along-pathway changes in its water properties, using Lagrangian backtracking of the DSO sources in a realistic numerical ocean simulation. The Lagrangian pathways confirm that several branches contribute to the DSO from the north such as the East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC (sEGC), and the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ). Moreover, the model results reveal additional pathways from south of Iceland, which supplied over 16% of the DSO annually and over 25% of the DSO during winter of 2008, when the NAO index was positive. The southern contribution is about 34% by the end of March. The southern pathways mark a more direct route from the near-surface subpolar North Atlantic to the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and needs to be explored further, with in situ observations.This work was financially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant Numbers OAC-1835640, OCE-1633124, OCE-1433448, and OCE-1259210

Tipping points in overturning circulation mediated by ocean mixing and the configuration and magnitude of the hydrological cycle: A simple model

The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations suggest that sinking can sometimes occur in the Pacific. We present a six-box model of the overturning in which temperature, salinity and low-latitude pycnocline depths are allowed to vary prognostically in both the Atlantic and Pacific. The overturning is driven by temperature, winds, and mixing and modulated by the hydrological cycle. In each basin there are three possible flow regimes, depending on whether low-latitude water flowing into northern surface boxes is transformed into dense deep water, somewhat lighter intermediate water, or light water that is returned at the surface. The resulting model combines insights from a number of previous studies and allows for nine possible global flow regimes. For the modern ocean, we find that although the interbasin atmospheric freshwater flux suppresses Pacific sinking, the equator-to-pole flux enhances it. When atmospheric temperatures are held fixed, seven possible flow regimes can be accessed by changing the amplitude and configuration of the modern hydrological cycle . North Pacific overturning can strengthen with either increases or decreases in the hydrological cycle, as well as under reversal of the interbasin freshwater flux. Tipping-point behavior of both transient and equilibrium states is modulated by parameters such as the poorly constrained lateral diffusive mixing. If hydrological cycle amplitude is varied consistently with global temperature, northern polar amplification is necessary for the Atlantic overturning to collapseComment: 38 pages, 10 figures, Submitted to Journal of Physical Oceanograph

Using Artificial Intelligence to aid Scientific Discovery of Climate Tipping Points

We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and mathematical methods for modeling dynamical systems. The simulations are grounded by a neuro-symbolic language that both enables question answering of what is learned by the AI methods and provides a means of explainability. We describe how this methodology can be applied to the discovery of climate tipping points and, in particular, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show how this methodology is able to predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy using a surrogate climate model for ocean interaction. We also show preliminary results of neuro-symbolic method performance when translating between natural language questions and symbolically learned representations. Our AI methodology shows promising early results, potentially enabling faster climate tipping point related research that would otherwise be computationally infeasible.Comment: This is the preprint of work presented at the 2022 AAAI Fall Symposium Series, Third Symposium on Knowledge-Guided ML, November 202

Is computational oceanography coming of age?

Computational oceanography is the study of ocean phenomena by numerical simulation, especially dynamical and physical phenomena. Progress in information technology has driven exponential growth in the number of global ocean observations and the fidelity of numerical simulations of the ocean in the past few decades. The growth has been exponentially faster for ocean simulations, however. We argue that this faster growth is shifting the importance of field measurements and numerical simulations for oceanographic research. It is leading to the maturation of computational oceanography as a branch of marine science on par with observational oceanography. One implication is that ultraresolved ocean simulations are only loosely constrained by observations. Another implication is that barriers to analyzing the output of such simulations should be removed. Although some specific limits and challenges exist, many opportunities are identified for the future of computational oceanography. Most important is the prospect of hybrid computational and observational approaches to advance understanding of the ocean

Evolution of Denmark Strait overflow cyclones and their relationship to overflow surges

Denmark Strait, the channel located between Greenland and Iceland, is a critical gateway between the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic. Mesoscale features crossing the strait regularly enhance the volume transport of the Denmark Strait overflow. They interact with the dense water masses descending into the subpolar North Atlantic and therefore are important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Using a realistic numerical model, we find new evidence of the causal relationship between overflow surges (i.e., mesoscale features associated with high-transport events) and overflow cyclones observed downstream. Most of the cyclones form at the Denmark Strait sill during overflow surges and, because of potential vorticity conservation and stretching of the water column, grow as they move equatorward. A fraction of the cyclones form downstream of the sill, when anticyclonic vortices formed during high-transport events start collapsing. Regardless of their formation mechanism, the cyclones weaken starting roughly 150 km downstream of the sill, and potential vorticity is only materially conserved during the growth phase

Assessing the roles of three eddy types in restratifying the Labrador Sea after deep convection

Restratification after deep convection is one of the key factors in determining the temporal variability of dense water formation in the Labrador Sea. In the subsurface, it is primarily governed by lateral buoyancy fluxes during early spring. The roles of three different eddy types in this process are assessed using an idealized model of the Labrador Sea that simulates the restratification season. The first eddy type, warm-core Irminger rings, is shed from the boundary current along the west coast of Greenland. All along the coastline, the boundary current forms boundary current eddies. The third type, convective eddies, arises directly around the convection area. In the model, the latter two eddy types are together responsible for replenishing 30% of the winter heat loss within 6 months. Irminger rings add another 45% to this number. The authors’ results thus confirm that the presence of Irminger rings is essential for a realistic amount of restratification in this area. The model results are compared to observations using theoretical estimates of restratification time scales derived for the three eddy types. The time scales are also used to explain contradicting conclusions in previous studies on their respective roles