Freight Transportation Planning on the European Multimodal Network: the case of the Walloon Region

This paper presents a methodology that can be used for long-term planning of freight transportation on multimodal networks. It is illustrated by research carried out for the Belgian Walloon Ministry of Transport between 1997 and 1999. Its aim was to provide a tool for measuring the impacts of different kinds of policies and/or new infrastructures on freight transport flows in and through Wallonia. The work started with the setting up of a calibrated multimodal and multi-products reference scenario for the year 1995. This reference scenario was then used as a basis to create a projection for the year 2010: in order to make this projection as realistic as possible, all the decided new infrastructures in Belgium and in the border countries that will be effective in 2010 were introduced in the model. Moreover, expected changes in the O-D matrixes were also introduced at a very detailed level. Then, a set of scenarios was build: one for each transportation mode in which specific changes for that mode were introduced, and one in which the external costs of transport were taken into account. On the basis of the obtained results, a ætransportation planÆ was built, in which the most promising changes in the different networks and policies were chosen. A sensitivity analysis (low and high economic activity) was finally performed

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

External Costs of the Belgian Interurban Freight Traffic : A Network Analysis of their Internalisation

Freight road transports in Europe have expanded significantly in recent years, leading to increased congestion, pollution and accidents. This problem will require the conjunction of many different remedies. The promotion and substitution of transportation modes with less negative effects is one element of the solution. This paper presents results obtained from a detailed geographic information system modeling of the Belgian multimodal freight transport network inserted within the overall trans-European network. The results of a simulation of the flows over the Belgian network in 1995 are outlined, which allows the estimation of some of the costs of several external effects of fright transports. The costs of pollution, congestion, accidents, noise and road damages are estimated at over 2 billion ECU in 1995. The results of a simulation internalizing the corresponding marginal external costs suggest that a road pricing policy integrating these factors could be effective in limiting road congestion, overall pollution as well as the other external effects. External costs savings could amount to about 500 million ECU

Freight Transportation Demand Elasticities: A Geographic Multimodal Transportation Network Analysis

In order to limit the external costs caused by the use of trucks multi- and intermodal transport are promoted in various ways. One way to partly shift transport demand on trains and barges is to introduce a pricing/taxation policy which takes into account these external costs for the different modes. The effects of such a policy are obviously dependent upon the way demand for the various modes is sensitive to variation of tariffs. There are very few estimates of direct and crossed price-elasticities available in the literature, particularly if different markets, i.e. different categories of goods, are taken into account. Moreover, existing estimates are obtained through sophisticated yet conventional statistical methods that do not directly cope with the topology of a given network. This paper presents estimates which have been computed for ten different categories of goods with a detailed multimodal network model based on a particular methodology that permits a thorough analysis ofThis paper presents direct and cross-elasticity estimates of the demands for three freight transportation modes: rail, road and inland waterways. They are computed for 10 different categories of goods with a detailed multimodal network model of Belgian freight transports. The model, which minimises the generalised cost of transportation tasks defined by O-D matrices, assigns traffic flows to the different modes, transport means and routes. Successive simulations with different relative costs permit the computation of specific arc-elasticities. In contrast with the usual methodologies, the present methodology is not based on a statistical analysis of disaggregate data on actual modal choices and transport tariffs. This is a particularly useful feature since such data are mostly not available for freight transports in Europe. Furthermore, it fully takes into account the detailed characteristics of the network, all available routes and combinations of modes, as well as the specific localisation of activities within the network. Its estimates are compared with previously published estimates, and, in particular, with Abdelwahab's results published (1998) in this journal

Freight transportation demand elasticities: a geographic multimodal transportation network analysis

Elasticity Freight transport GIS Network