Community acquired acute kidney injury: findings from a large population cohort

Background: The extent of patient contact with medical services prior to development of community acquired-acute kidney injury (CA-AKI)is unknown. Aim: We examined the relationship between incident CA-AKI alerts, previous contact with hospital or primary care and clinical outcomes. Design: A prospective national cohort study of all electronic AKIalerts representing adult CA-AKI. Methods: Data were collected for all cases of adult (≥18 years of age) CA-AKI in Wales between 1 November 2013 and 31 January 2017. Results: There were a total of 50 560 incident CA-AKI alerts. In 46.8% there was a measurement of renal function in the 30 days prior to the AKI alert. In this group, in 63.8% this was in a hospital setting, of which 37.6% were as an inpatient and 37.5% in Accident and Emergency. Progression of AKI to a higher AKI stage (13.1 vs. 9.8%, P  50% from the creatinine value generating the alert), the proportion of patients admitted to Intensive Care (5.5 vs. 4.9%, P = 0.001) and 90-day mortality (27.2 vs. 18.5%, P < 0.001) was significantly higher for patients with a recent test. 90-day mortality was highest for patients with a recent test taken in an inpatient setting prior to CA-AKI (30.9%). Conclusion: Almost half of all patients presenting with CA-AKI are already known to medical services, the majority of which have had recent measurement of renal function in a hospital setting, suggesting that AKI for at least some of these may potentially be predictable and/or avoidable

Acute kidney injury: electronic alerts in primary care - findings from a large population cohort

Background: Electronic reporting of AKI has been used to aid early AKI recognition although its relevance to CA-AKI and primary care has not been described. Aims: We described the characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with CA-AKI, and AKI identified in primary care (PC-AKI) through AKI e-Alerts. Design: A prospective national cohort study was undertaken to collect data on all e-alerts representing adult CA-AKI. Method: The study utilised the biochemistry based AKI electronic (e)-alert system that is established across the Welsh National Health Service. Results: 28.8% of the 22,723 CA-AKI e-alerts were classified as PC-AKI. Ninety-day mortality was 24.0% and lower for PC-AKI vs. non-primary care (non-PC) CA-AKI. Hospitalisation was 22.3% for PC-AKI and associated with greater disease severity, higher mortality, but better renal outcomes (non-recovery: 18.1% vs. 21.6%; progression of pre-existing CKD: 40.5% vs. 58.3%). 49.1% of PC-AKI had a repeat test within seven days, 42.5% between seven and ninety days, and 8.4% was not repeated within ninety days. There was significantly more non-recovery (24.0% vs. 17.9%) and progression of pre-existing CKD (63.3% vs. 47.0%) in patients with late repeated measurement of renal function compared to those with early repeated measurement of renal function. Conclusion: The data demonstrate the clinical utility of AKI e-alerts in primary care. We recommend that a clinical review, or referral together with a repeat measurement of renal function within seven days should be considered an appropriate response to AKI e-alerts in primary care

Acute kidney injury in the era of the AKI E-Alert

Background and objectivesOur aimwas to use a national electronicAKI alert to define the incidence and outcome of all episodes of community– and hospital–acquired adult AKI. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A prospective national cohort study was undertaken in a population of 3.06 million.Datawere collected betweenMarch of 2015 andAugust of 2015. All patients with adult ($18 years of age) AKI were identified to define the incidence and outcome of all episodes of community- and hospital-acquired AKI in adults. Mortality and renal outcomes were assessed at 90 days. Results There was a total of 31,601 alerts representing 17,689 incident episodes, giving an incidence of AKI of 577 per 100,000 population. Community-acquired AKI accounted for 49.3% of all incident episodes, and 42% occurred in the context of preexisting CKD (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFR); 90-day mortality rate was 25.6%, and 23.7% of episodes progressed to a higher AKI stage than the stage associated with the alert. AKI electronic alert stage and peak AKI stage were associated with mortality, and mortality was significantly higher for hospital-acquired AKI compared with alerts generated in a community setting. Among patients who survived to 90 days after the AKI electronic alert, those who were not hospitalized had a lower rate of renal recovery and a greater likelihood of developing an eGFR,60 ml/min per 1.73m2 for the first time,which may be indicative of development of de novo CKD. Conclusions The reported incidence of AKI is far greater than the previously reported incidence in studies reliant on clinical identification of adult AKI or hospital coding data. Although an electronic alert systemis Information Technology driven and therefore, lacks intelligence and clinical context, these data can be used to identify deficiencies in care, guide the development of appropriate intervention strategies, and provide a baseline against which the effectiveness of these interventions may be measured

Recurrent acute kidney injury: predictors and impact in a large population-based cohort

Background This study examined the impact of recurrent episodes of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patient outcomes. Methods The Welsh National electronic AKI reporting system was used to identify all cases of AKI in patients ≥18 years of age between April 2015 and September 2018. Patients were grouped according to the number of AKI episodes they experienced with each patient’s first episode described as their index episode. We compared the demography and patient outcomes of those patients with a single AKI episode with those patients with multiple AKI episodes. Analysis included 153 776 AKI episodes in 111 528 patients. Results Of those who experienced AKI and survived their index episode, 29.3% experienced a second episode, 9.9% a third episode and 4.0% experienced fourth or more episodes. Thirty-day mortality for those patients with multiple episodes of AKI was significantly higher than for those patients with a single episode (31.3% versus 24.9%, P < 0.001). Following a single episode, recovery to baseline renal function at 30 days was achieved in 83.6% of patients and was significantly higher than for patients who had repeated episodes (77.8%, P < 0.001). For surviving patients, non-recovery of renal function following any AKI episode was significantly associated with a higher probability of a further AKI episode (33.4% versus 41.0%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, with each episode of AKI the likelihood of a subsequent episode also increased (31.0% versus 43.2% versus 51.2% versus 51.7% following a first, second, third and fourth episode, P < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusions The results of this study provide an important contribution to the debate regarding the need for risk stratification for recurrent AKI. The data suggest that such a tool would be useful given the poor patient and renal outcomes associated with recurrent AKI episodes as highlighted by this study

Seasonal pattern of incidence and outcome of acute kidney injury: A national study of Welsh AKI electronic alerts

Objectives To identify any seasonal variation in the occurrence of, and outcome following Acute Kidney Injury. Methods The study utilised the biochemistry based AKI electronic (e)-alert system established across the Welsh National Health Service to collect data on all AKI episodes to identify changes in incidence and outcome over one calendar year (1st October 2015 and the 30th September 2016). Results There were total of 48 457 incident AKI alerts. The highest proportion of AKI episodes was seen in the quarter of January to March (26.2%), and the lowest in the quarter of October to December (23.3%, P < .001). The same trend was seen for both community-acquired and hospital-acquired AKI sub-sets. Overall 90 day mortality for all AKI was 27.3%. In contrast with the seasonal trend in AKI occurrence, 90 day mortality after the incident AKI alert was significantly higher in the quarters of January to March and October to December compared with the quarters of April to June and July to September (P < .001) consistent with excess winter mortality reported for likely underlying diseases which precipitate AKI. Conclusions In summary we report for the first time in a large national cohort, a seasonal variation in the incidence and outcomes of AKI. The results demonstrate distinct trends in the incidence and outcome of AKI

The influence of socioeconomic status on presentation and outcome of acute kidney injury

Aim Although socioeconomic background is known to impact on the incidence and progression of chronic kidney disease, its influence of on the presentation and outcome for acute kidney injury is not known and is the subject of this study. Design The Welsh National electronic AKI reporting system was used to identify all cases of AKI in patients >18 years of age between March 2015 and November 2017. Methods Socioeconomic classification of patients was derived from the Welsh Index Multiple Deprivation score (WIMD). Patients were grouped according to the WIMD score by their postcode, and the ranked data were categorized into percentiles and correlated with incidence and measures of AKI severity and outcome. Results Date was collected on a total of 57 654 patients. Increased deprivation was associated with higher AKI incidence rates, more episodes of AKI per patient and more severe AKI at presentation. In contrast 90-day mortality was highest in the most affluent areas. Mortality in affluent areas was driven by increased patient age. Corrected for age 90-day mortality was higher in areas of increased deprivation. Conclusion This study highlights that AKI incidence presentation and outcomes are adversely affected by social deprivation. Further studies are required to understand the extent to which these differences reflect patient related factors or regional differences in provision and access to care

Predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules: feasibility of a predictive model integrating clinical, biochemical, and ultrasound characteristics

Background: Although the majority of thyroid nodules are benign the process of excluding malignancy is challenging and sometimes involves unnecessary surgical procedures. We explored the development of a predictive model for malignancy in thyroid nodules by integrating a combination of simple demographic, biochemical, and ultrasound characteristics. Methods: Retrospective case-record review. We reviewed records of patients with thyroid nodules referred to our institution from 2004 to 2011 (n = 536; female 84 %, mean age 51 years). All malignancy was proven histologically while benign disease was either confirmed histologically, or on cytology with minimum 36-month observation period. We focused on the following predictors: age, sex, smoking status, thyroid hormones (FT4 and TSH) and nodule characteristics on ultrasound. Variables were included in a multivariate logistic regression and bootstrap analyses were used to confirm results. Results: Independent predictors of malignancy in the fully adjusted model were TSH (OR 1.53, 95 % CI 1.10, 2.12, p = 0.01), male gender (OR 3.45, 95 % CI 1.33, 8.92, p = 0.01), microcalcifications (OR 6.32, 95 % CI 2.82, 14.1, p < 0.001), and irregular nodule margins (OR 5.45, 95 % CI 1.61, 18.6, p = 0.006) Bootstrap analyses strengthened these associations and a parsimonious analysis consisting of these variables and age-group demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.77. A predictive score was sensitive (86.9 %) at low scores and highly specific (94.87 %) at higher scores for distinguishing benign from malignant disease. Conclusions: A predictive model for malignancy using a combination of clinical, biochemical, and radiological characteristics may support clinicians in reducing unnecessary invasive procedures in patients with thyroid nodules

Using electronic AKI alerts to define the epidemiology of acute kidney injury in renal transplants

Background: Little is known regarding the impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) on renal transplant outcome. Our aim was to define the incidence and outcome of AKI in renal transplant patients using data collected from a national AKI electronic alert system Methods: The study represents a prospective national cohort study collecting data on 1224 renal transplants recipients with a functioning renal transplant, between April 2015 and March 2019. Results: Four hundred forty patients experienced at least one episode of AKI giving an incidence rate of 35.4%. Sixty-four point seven% of episodes were AKI stage 1, 7.3% AKI stage 2 and 28% AKI stage 3. Only 6.2% of episodes occurred in the context of rejection. Forty-three point five% of AKI episodes were associated with sepsis. AKI was associated with pre-existing renal dysfunction, and a primary renal diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy. AKI was more prevalent in recipients from a donor after cardiac death (26.4% vs. 21.4%, p < 0.05) compared to the non-AKI cohort. Following AKI, 30-day mortality was 19.8% and overall mortality was 34.8%, compared to 8.4% in the non AKI cohort (RR 4.06, 95% CI 3.1–5.3, p < 0.001). Graft survival (GS), and death censored graft survival (DCGS) censored at 4 years, in the AKI cohort were significantly lower than in the non AKI group (p < 0.0001 for GS and DCGS). Conclusion: The study provides a detailed characterisation of AKI in renal transplant recipients highlighting its significant negative impact on patient and graft survival

Acute kidney injury in children based on electronic alerts

Objective To define the incidence and outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) in pediatrics using data collected from a national electronic alert system. Study design A prospective national cohort study was undertaken to collect data on all cases of pediatric AKI, excluding neonates, identified by an e-alert, from April 2015 to March 2019. Results There were 2472 alerts in a total of 1719 patients, giving an incidence of 77.3 per 100 000 person-years. Of the patients, 84.2% of all AKI were stage 1 and 58.3% occurred with a triggering creatinine within the reference range. The incidence of AKI was associated with measures of social deprivation. Thirty-day mortality was 1.7% but was significantly higher in hospital-acquired AKI (2.1%), compared with community-acquired AKI (0.8%, P < .001) and was associated with the severity of AKI at presentation. A significant proportion of patients had no repeat measure of creatinine (39.8%). This was higher in community-acquired AKI (69.7%) compared with hospital-acquired AKI (43.0%, P < .001), and higher in patients alerting with patients triggering with a creatinine within the reference range (48.4% vs 24.5%, P < .001). The majority of patients (84.7%) experienced only 1 AKI episode. Repeated episodes of AKI were associated with increased 30-mortaltiy (11.6% vs 4.6%, P < .001) and higher residual renal impairment (13.3% vs 5.4%, P < .001). Conclusions The results suggest that the significance of the alert is missed in many cases reflecting that a large proportion of cases represent modest elevations in serum creatinine (SCr), triggered by a SCr level that may be interpreted as being normal despite a significant increase from the baseline for the patient

SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence in the workforces of three large workplaces in South Wales: a sero-epidemiological study

Background Sero-prevalence studies quantify the proportion of a population that has antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and can be used to identify the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic at a population level. The aim of the study was to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the workforce at three workplaces: a food factory, non-food factory and call-centre. Methods Nine hundred ninety-three participants were recruited from three workplaces in South Wales. Participants completed a questionnaire and had a lateral flow point-of-care SARS-CoV-2 antibody test administered by a healthcare professional. The data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression, both using complete records only and following multiple imputation. Results The sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies ranged from 4% (n = 17/402) in the non-food factory to 10% (n = 28/281) in the food factory (OR 2.93; 95% CI 1.26 to 6.81). After taking account of confounding factors evidence of a difference remained (cOR comparing food factory to call centre (2.93; 95% CI 1.26 to 6.81) and non-food factory (3.99; 95% CI 1.97 to 8.08) respectively). The SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence also varied between roles within workplaces. People working in office based roles had a 2.23 times greater conditional odds (95% CI 1.02 to 4.87) of being positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies than those working on the factory floor. Conclusion The sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies varied by workplace and work role. Whilst it is not possible to state whether these differences are due to COVID-19 transmission within the workplaces, it highlights the importance of considering COVID-19 transmission in a range of workplaces and work roles