Tenth District economic developments

The Tenth District economy posted lower employment growth in 1997, marking the first time since 1988 that the district underperformed the nation. District agriculture posted solid gains in 1997, with big harvests and major improvements in the cattle industry. Overall, labor markets remained tight in most of the district, most likely limiting job growth in the region.> Gazel reviews the major economic developments in the district economy in 1997 and examines the outlook for 1998. The district economy is likely to grow moderately this year, nearly matching the 1997 pace. Tight labor markets throughout the district and slower growth at the national level will be major factors behind the slowdown. The region's economic growth in 1998 will be well-balanced. Manufacturing activity is likely to expand at the same pace as 1997, driven by gains in the production of durable goods. The service sector should grow moderately again in 1998, supported by solid performance in business and professional services. Retail and wholesale trade may be slowed by lower job and income growth across the district. Construction activity may weaken in 1998, although housing may improve somewhat. The district farm economy should remain relatively strong in 1998.Federal Reserve District, 10th

Mercosur: past, present, and future

In March 2003, the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) celebrated its twelfth anniversary. In twelve years, the bloc went from a substantially restricted trade structure to a practically free-trade area, with additional efforts in establishing a customs union and progressing toward a common market. Despite these advances, the integration process has experienced setbacks as the result of such different economic phenomena as the Asian financial crisis, Brazil's currency devaluation and, later, economic uncertainty in Argentina. Setbacks to the integration process create credibility issues and could jeopardize the future of the process. This paper discusses the current level of economic integration of Mercosur, the speed of the process, and the resulting mixed level of different stages of economic integration. It also discusses the main achievements in the last twelve years, identifies the shortcomings as well as the opportunities and challenges facing the bloc in the near future.Mercosur, economic integration, trade policy, globalization

The District economic outlook : responding to labor shortages and overseas problems

The Tenth District economy slowed down in 1998, with employment growing marginally below the national average. Despite very tight labor markets, employment growth remained healthy in many sectors. Construction; trade; transportation, communications, and public utilities; and finance, insurance, and real estate---all posted healthy gains. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, turned in weak growth, a result of the Asian financial turmoil and a shortage of skilled workers throughout the district. District agriculture had a difficult year, as commodity prices plunged in the face of rising supplies and weakening demand. A large aid package from Congress late in the year prevented farm incomes from being considerably less than in 1997.> Gazel and Wilkerson discuss why the district economy is likely to slow further in 1999, growing only modestly compared with the recent past. The expected slowdown of the national economy, continued economic weakness in the rest of the world, and very tight labor markets throughout the district are all likely to play major roles in the district economic slowdown. Some sectors of the district economy, such as manufacturing and mining, are likely to be hurt more than others in the near future. The service sector is likely to repeat its weak 1998 performance, while a reduction in consumer spending will slow growth in retail and wholesale trade in 1999. Construction activity may weaken a bit in 1999, and the district farm economy is likely to face a difficult year unless the government acts to further boost subsidies.Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Economic conditions - United States ; Employment (Economic theory) ; Labor supply

What's hampering job growth in the District's services sector?

Employment growth in the Tenth District has fallen behind the national rate in 1999 for the first time in ten years. Although all economic sectors have been experiencing slower job growth, the services sector, due to its size, has played perhaps the most important role in the slowdown of overall employment growth in the district. While services employment elsewhere in the nation continues to grow rapidly, the district has witnessed very little job expansion in services so far in 1999 (Chart 1). In fact, the district services sector has added jobs during the first seven months of this year at less than a third of the rate enjoyed by the nation as a whole.Employment (Economic theory) ; Service industries ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

The Economic Impacts of Native American Gaming in Wisconsin

An input-output model is utilized to assesses the economic impact of gambling in Native American casinos in Wisconsin. Important facts include interview information from 697 players. Positive economic gains discovered for local casino areas are offset by losses to other parts of the state and by losses due to social costs

Will tightness in Tenth District labor markets result in economic slowdown?

Labor markets in the Tenth District are tighter now than at any time in recent memory. The steady fall of unemployment rates in recent years has led many analysts to wonder if future economic growth in the region could be restricted by labor shortages. The district's labor market is actually even tighter than suggested by its unemployment rate of less than 4 percent in 1998 due to the presence of two other significant, but often overlooked, factors: high labor force participation rates and slowing domestic migration flows.> The labor force participation rate, meaning roughly the percentage of the working-age population that is actively taking part in the labor force, has been increasing rapidly in the district this decade and is now well above the national rate. This means the district is likely to have a more difficult time drawing new workers from its own population in the future. Likewise, the district has suffered in recent years from smaller net migration flows from the rest of the country after several years of strong gains following the 1990-91 recession. Thus, at a time when district labor markets need to be drawing more workers from other parts of the country, the flow of new workers is actually drying up.> Gazel and Wilkerson explore whether the growth of jobs in the district is likely to be hampered by slower growth in the labor supply in the presence of tight labor markets. They find that the district's extremely low unemployment rate, combined with a record level of labor force participation and diminishing migration inflows, does indeed reflect an economy that is likely to suffer from slow labor supply growth in the near future.Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Labor market ; Employment (Economic theory)

The impact of the Brazilian crisis in the Tenth District

The recent economic turmoil in Brazil, triggered by the devaluation in January of the "real" (Brazil's currency), has understandably created concern about how the United States will be affected. This article looks at the possible impacts in the Tenth District and finds that, at least for now, there is little need for concern. The article is divided into three sections: an explanation of the crisis and its overall potential for harm, a brief discussion of the direct impact on district producers, and a more thorough analysis of the indirect ways a spread of the crisis could affect manufacturing and agriculture in the region.Brazil

Social Costs Of Gambling: A Comparative Study Of Nutmeg And Cheese State Gamblers

An analysis of the social costs of problem gambling finds similar results from two surveys of gamblers in treatment in Wisconsin (N=98) and Connecticut (N=112). Cost factors examined include lost work time and unemployment, bad debts, thefts, civil court costs, criminal justice system costs, and welfare costs. The problem gambler in Wisconsin imposes an annual cost of $8,681 on other persons, while Connecticut costs amount to$15,994. The variations between the two groups surveyed are found, for the most part, in costs of thefts. The differences can be explained by the fact that legalized gambling has been established longer in Connecticut

Influence of Land Use and Coverage Change on Continental Surface Temperature in the Urban Area of Belem-PA

The objective of this work is to examine the spatial distribution of Continental Surface Temperature (CST) of the urban area of Belem / PA and the influence of the change of use and soil cover from remote sensing techniques. Products from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) sensors coupled, respectively, to Landsat 5 and 8 satellites were used. The images acquired from the years 1994, 2008 and 2017 were processed, resampled (spatial resolution of 120 meters) and, finally, centroids were extracted with a total of 1252 points, using the Quantum GIS software. Subsequently, spectral indices, NDVI, NDBI and albedo were calculated, which represent, respectively, the presence of vegetation, exposed soil or built area and reflectivity rate. The results showed that CST showed an increase in all sectors of the study area, mainly between the years 2008 and 2017. The sector with the highest elevation of the CST was the urban center, as it presented values below 25.0 ºC in the image of 1994 and above 35.0 ºC in the 2017 image. In contrast, the ecological park sector showed the lowest increase in CST, from 20.0 ºC (1994) to 25.0 ºC (2017). According to the analysis of the spectral indices, the intensification of CST is directly associated with the strong territorial expansion, since from the NDVI values the degradation of the vegetation cover was noted. This degradation is observed in the comparisons of the images, in which it is possible to verify the decrease in the NDVI values in the entire study area, whose values represent the decrease in the vegetation cover. The sector with the greatest withdrawal of green areas was the northern zone, as it showed a drop in NDVI values, from 0.7 in 1994 to 0.3 in the 2017 image. It was also observed that the density of the constructed area was intensified, presenting increasing values of NDBI. Added to these NDVI and NDBI values, higher reflectivity rate values were noted, whose values in the urban center of Belem in 1994 were 0.1% and which exceeded 0.5% in the image for the year 2017, ratifying the impact of changes in land cover and the direct association between changes in the environment and CST. In general, the results indicate that the uncontrolled expansion of the urban process and the change in land cover cause the intensification of CST