Are Individuals Entering Self-Employment Overly Optimistic? An Empirical Test of Plans and Projections on Nascent Entrepreneur Expectations

This research examines the rationality of the expectations of nascent entrepreneurs. Consistent with conjectures regarding entry into self-employment, I find substantial overoptimism in nascent entrepreneurs\u27 expectations, in that they overestimate the probability that their nascent activity will result in an operating venture. Further, for those ventures that achieve operation, individuals overestimate the expected future sales and employment. To explain variations in overoptimism, I posit that those individuals who adopt an inside view to forecasting through the use of plans and financial projections, will exhibit greater ex ante bias in their expectations. Consistent with the inside view causing overoptimism in expectations, I find that the preparation of projected financial statements results in more overly optimistic venture sale forecasts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Discussion of The Value of Financial Statement Verification in Debt Financing: Evidence from Private U.S. Firms

I discuss Minnis [2010] in the context of the broader literature on private firm financing. In particular, I focus on the unique features of the private firm setting and how it affects research design and inference. I detail the alternative information sources available to debt financiers of private firms that may limit the role of auditors and firm financial statements. I review research in the private firm setting that documents the heightened importance of many omitted correlated variables such as the loan characteristics, contractual terms, and the characteristics of the entrepreneur that affect cost of debt. In evaluating the validity of Minnis’s [2010] hypotheses and econometric methods, I report findings from a representative sample of private firms provided by the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Small Business Finances

Longitudinal Analysis of Relationships Between Planning and Performance in Small Firms

This paper investigates causal relationships between planning and performance utilizing a longitudinal database with responses from the same 2,956 businesses over a four-year period. Results confirm the association between planning activity and performance that is evident in most extant literature. They also, however, cast doubt on the traditional perception of the causal sequence of that association. Although subject to a number of limitations, the results indicate that planning is more likely to be introduced into a small firm after a period of growth rather than before a period of growth. These results make an important contribution to understanding the planning performance relationship for two main reasons: they overcome the static data and relatively smaller sample size restrictions of many past studies; and, they provide evidence concerning the sequence of the relationship between planning and performance

Hedge Funds: Pricing Controls and the Smoothing of Self-Reported Returns

We investigate the extent to which hedge fund managers smooth self-reported returns. In contrast to prior research on the “anomalous” properties of hedge fund returns, we observe the mechanisms used to price the fund\u27s investment positions and report the fund\u27s performance to investors, thereby allowing us to differentiate between asset illiquidity and misreporting-based explanations. We find that funds using less verifiable pricing sources and funds that provide managers with greater discretion in pricing investment positions are more likely to have returns consistent with intentional smoothing. Traditional controls, however, such as removing the manager from the setting and reporting of the fund\u27s net asset value and the use of reputable auditors and administrators, are not associated with lower levels of smoothing. With respect to asset illiquidity versus misreporting, investment style and portfolio characteristics explain 14.0–24.3% of the variation in our smoothing measures, and pricing controls explain an additional 4.1–8.8%, suggesting that asset illiquidity is the major factor driving the anomalous properties of self-reported hedge fund returns

Budgets, Internal Reports, and Manager Forecast Accuracy

This study investigates the association between the accuracy of revenue forecasts and the accounting activities of budget preparation and internal accounting report preparation. While both budgets and internal reports are widely used, empirical evidence concerning their influence on the prediction of future performance is extremely limited. Consistent with the availability of formal accounting information improving predictive performance, we observe that internal accounting report preparation significantly improves forecast accuracy. However, partitioning firms by forecasting difficulty reveals that the accuracy benefits from internal reports preparation are only observed for firms with high uncertainty. Further, the results provide limited support for linkages between budget preparation and forecast accuracy. While we observe that the use of budget preparation and internal accounting report preparation is a function of firms’ structural and environmental characteristics, firms do not appear to adopt these activities as a function of forecasting difficulty, but rather as a function of predicted changes in future growth

Does Self-Efficacy Affect Entrepreneurial Investment?

We empirically examine the effect of self-efficacy on entrepreneurial investment choices. We identify various attributes of entrepreneurial investment and argue that higher self-efficacy is associated with more aggressive entrepreneurial investment decisions. We show that self-efficacy increases the likelihood of being a nascent entrepreneur and creating an operating business. Self-efficacy also increases the proportion of personal wealth invested in the venture and the amount of hours per week the entrepreneur devotes to the venture. These results are significant even when controlling for other known characteristics associated with entrepreneurial investment. Copyright © 2009 Strategic Management Society

An Investigation of Hindsight Bias in Nascent Venture Activity

We posit that individuals who are actively engaged in activities to develop their own venture will exhibit hindsight bias when recalling their startup experiences. We observe that those who fail to develop their startup activity into an operating business demonstrate substantial hindsight bias concerning the probability of venture formation. In particular, the recalled probability of success, reported after their decision to quit, is lower than the probability of success solicited during the nascent process. We argue that the systematic distortion of the past has important implications for individuals involved in the venturing process. Specifically, we suggest that these individuals are at risk of overestimating their chances of success when starting future nascent activity if they do not correct for their optimistic tendencies. The evidence from this study suggests it is important to recognize that what nascent entrepreneurs believe they experienced, and what they actually experienced, may not be equivalent

Alternative Information Sources and Information Asymmetry Reduction: Evidence From Small Business Debt

We examine whether more sophisticated accounting methods (in the form of accrual accounting) interact with other information sources to reduce information asymmetries between small business borrowers and lenders, thereby lowering borrowers׳ probability of loan denial and cost of debt. We find that higher third party credit scores, but not the use of accrual accounting, decrease the likelihood of loan denial. However, firms using accrual accounting exhibit statistically lower interest rates after controlling for many factors associated with the cost of debt. Further, the interest rate benefits from accrual accounting are greatest when the borrower׳s credit score is low and/or the length of its banking relationship with the lender is short. This evidence indicates that accrual accounting can benefit small business borrowers, but that the information contained in third-party credit scores and obtained through ongoing banking relationships can substitute for the incremental information provided by accrual accounting