Global Aid Allocation: Are Nordic Donors Different?

The Nordic development assistance programs have earned a reputation for commitment to human rights and democracy. Is the reputation deserved? We address this question by comparing how much aid donors give and to which recipient countries. Using a global panel data set, spanning the period 1980-99 and 91 recipient countries, we find that individual bilateral donors vary considerably from one another. Nordic aid distribution differs significantly from other bilateral aid donor patterns: Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland provide more aid to democracies but do not penalise poor trade policies. Unlike other bilateral donors the four Nordics do not provide more aid to political allies. We also find some evidence that recipients with a good human rights record receive more aid from Nordic donors.

Cold + Hot Dark Matter and the Cosmic Microwave Background

We examine the cosmic microwave background power spectrum for adiabatic models with a massive neutrino component. We present the results of a detailed numerical evolution of cold + hot dark matter (CHDM) models and compare with the standard cold dark matter (CDM) spectrum. The difference is of order $5-10$ for $400 < l < 1000$ for currently popular CHDM models. With semi-analytic approximations, we also discuss the relevant physics involved. Finally we remark on the ability of future experiments to differentiate between these models. An all-sky experiment with a beam size smaller than 30 arcminutes can distinguish between CHDM and CDM if other cosmological parameters are known. Even allowing other parameters to vary, it may be possible to distinguish CDM from CHDM.Comment: Compressed uuencoded postscript, 26 pages including figures. Color version available at http://www-astro-theory.fnal.gov

The Technology of Terror: Accounting for the Strategic Use of Terrorism

To comprehend why a group would intentionally target civilians, we need to understand why other groups do not. In this chapter, we argue that disgruntled groups face three main choices when addressing their dissatisfaction: suffering a disadvantageous peace, engaging in unconventional warfare, or engaging in conventional warfare. We further disaggregate the choice of unconventional warfare into terrorism and guerrilla warfare. By focusing on asymmetrical aspects of the problem and the strategic interactions between the insurgent group, its complicit public, and the superior force of the state, we disentangle the technology of terror.

Post-conflict justice and sustainable peace

No systematic study has examined the effect of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace on a global basis. This paper attempts to fill that void by building on a newly constructed dataset (Binningsbo, Elster, and Gates 2005), which reports the presence of various forms of post-conflict justice efforts (trials, purges, reparation to victims, and truth commissions) as well as processes associated with abstaining from post-conflict justice (amnesty and exile). It investigates the long-term effects of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace after conflict. It uses a Cox proportional hazard model to analyze the influence of the various types of post-conflict justice on the length of the peace period before the recurrence of violent conflict. Post-conflict trials as well as other types of justice do lead to a more durable peace in democratic as well as non-democratic societies, but the results are weak and are therefore difficult to generalize. Forms of non-retributive justice (that is, reparations to victims and truth commissions), however, are strongly associated with the duration of peace in democratic societies, but are not significant for non-democratic societies. Amnesty tends to be destabilizing and generally associated with shorter peace duration, but exile tends to lead to a more durable peace.Social Conflict and Violence,Post Conflict Reintegration,Peace & Peacekeeping,Corruption & Anitcorruption Law,Education and Society

Recruitment, Retention, and Religion in Rebel Groups (SWP 32)

Recruitment and retention are fundamental requirements for any organization. For a rebel group engaged in armed conflict with the state, recruitment and retention of personnel can constitute the difference between life and death for the leadership of the organization and the organization itself. Using a principal–agent analysis of participation and incentive compatibility constraints, we develop a formal model of recruitment and retention in a rebel group with and without contestation. The model better accounts for positive utility from fighting, and therefore helps understand recruitment and retention in a wider set of rebel groups – from loot-seeking organizations motivated by private benefits, to those motivated by communal benefits or ideological or religious principles. We explore the differences between groups of varying degrees of extremist and non-extremist doctrine, focusing on the mobilization to such groups. We demonstrate systematic difference in the capacity of rebel groups and trace this to their recruitment potential

The Technology of Terror: Accounting for the Strategic Use of Terrorism

To comprehend why a group would intentionally target civilians, we need to understand why other groups do not. In this chapter, we argue that disgruntled groups face three main choices when addressing their dissatisfaction: suffering a disadvantageous peace, engaging in unconventional warfare, or engaging in conventional warfare. We further disaggregate the choice of unconventional warfare into terrorism and guerrilla warfare. By focusing on asymmetrical aspects of the problem and the strategic interactions between the insurgent group, its complicit public, and the superior force of the state, we disentangle the technology of terror

Accounting for Numbers: Group Characteristics and the Choice of Violent and Nonviolent Tactics

Movement attributes shape the relative effectiveness of violent and nonviolent tactics. We show how nonviolent tactics can be relatively more effective when a movement can mobilize more active participants than with violence. A nonviolent mobilization advantage requires a large potential audience; movements with limited mobilization potential can have feasible prospects for violent dissent and a nonviolent mobilization disadvantage. We examine the implications of the model against empirical data for different types of dissident tactics and on resort to nonviolent and nonviolent dissent. We demonstrate very different actor profiles in nonviolent dissent and violent conflict, and the two types of dissent are more likely under distinct settings. Although tactics reflect choices, movement attributes and constraints will tend to give a comparative advantage to one over the other. Movement characteristics thus fundamentally guide choices in dissent, and this has important implications for assessing the impact of different types of dissent and likely outcomes

Transgender and the Transpersonal: an Introduction and a Call for Research

While a tradition of research in relation to the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer and intersex (LGBTQI+) community and religiosity, there is a paucity of research relating to spirituality. Additionally, classifying such ‘non-conforming’ groups into a general classification has inherent problems, specifically in relation to transgender more likely to engage in spirituality opposed to religion that other groups. With the high prevalence of personal distress and harm to mental wellbeing experienced by individuals identifying as transgender, especially with the increased risk of suicide attempts, effective support and counselling are required. Such existential crisis could potentially be addressed through greater engagement with spirituality: indeed, several cultures identify transgender as relating to spirituality. This paper explores transgender and spiritual identity in different cultures, while highlighting research in the more secular society, culminating in an evaluation of various models which may provide spiritual support to help integrate the predominant dysphoria between mind and body, through engaging the spirit to harmonise the conflict

Trust Issues?:How Being Socialised in an Autocracy Shapes Vaccine Uptake (with with Michael Bayerlein, Vanessa Boese, Scott Gates and Katrin Kamin)

The COVID-19 pandemic increased pressure on the relationship between governments andthe public, making cooperation between both actors more critical than ever. Surprisingly,there is significant variation in public compliance with health policies, especiallyregarding vaccine uptake across different countries. Based on this finding, we seek tounderstand why vaccination hesitancy varies between countries. Instead of focusing solelyon government trust and satisfaction, this research examines the impact of individuals’experiences having lived in autocratic countries on vaccine hesitancy. We derive a formalmodel of how autocratic experience and the subsequent distrust in health policies affectthe individual calculus on vaccine uptake, and test the propositions of our model in asample of 33 European countries on the micro-level. We find that autocratic experiencegravely impacts individual vaccine hesitancy. Our findings shed light on the prolongedimpact of autocratic rule on societal processes and on the roots of vaccine hesitancy, whichis not rooted in general distrust but rather a highly specific form of scepticism towardsgovernment action