Development and validation of a life expectancy estimator for multimorbid older adults: A cohort study protocol

Background Older multimorbid adults have a high risk of mortality and a short life expectancy (LE). Providing high-value care and avoiding care overuse, including of preventive care, is a serious challenge among multimorbid patients. While guidelines recommend to tailor preventive care according to the estimated LE, there is no tool to estimate LE in this specific population. Our objective is therefore to develop an LE estimator for older multimorbid adults by transforming a mortality prognostic index, which will be developed and internally validated in a prospective cohort. Methods and analysis We will analyse data of the Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People cohort study in Bern, Switzerland. 822 participants were included at hospitalisation with age of 70 years or older, multimorbidity (three or more chronic medical conditions) and polypharmacy (use of five drugs or more for >30 days). All-cause mortality will be assessed during 3 years of follow-up. We will apply a flexible parametric survival model with backward stepwise selection to identify the mortality risk predictors. The model will be internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. We will derive a point-based risk score from the regression coefficients. We will transform the 3-year mortality prognostic index into an LE estimator using the Gompertz survival function. We will perform a qualitative assessment of the clinical usability of the LE estimator and its application. We will conduct the development and validation of the mortality prognostic index following the Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) framework and report it following the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. Ethics and dissemination Written informed consent by patients themselves or, in the case of cognitive impairment, by a legal representative, was required before enrolment. The local ethics committee (Kantonale Ethikkommission Bern) has approved the study. We plan to publish the results in peer-reviewed journals and present them at national and international conferences

Expression of the multidrug transporter MRP2 in the blood-brain barrier after pilocarpine-induced seizures in rats

Renewable Energy Integration into Smart Grids: Problems and Solutions - Asian and Australasian Experience (panel): presentation no. 2012GM0840Distributed generations and renewable energy generations have been widely installed in the distribution systems all over the world. The intermittence of distributed renewable energy generations and their special characteristics have various impacts on power system operation and dispatch. In this paper, the impacts of distributed generations on dispatch modes of power systems are discussed based on the Guangdong power grid in China. We introduce the situations of Guangdong power system, and its installation of distributed generations. The impacts of various distributed renewable energy generations on the system dispatch from the system operator's view point have been discussed. Based on the Guangdong existing generation resources and potential distributed generation grid integration, we provide suggestions to smooth the future integration of large amount of distributed renewable energy generations. © 2012 IEEE.published_or_final_versionThe 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, San Diego, CA., 22-26 July 2012. In IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting Proceedings, 2012, p. 1-

Treatment with levetiracetam after status epilepticus: effect on epileptogenesis, neuronal damage and behavioral alterations in rats

AIB1, a candidate oncogene in human breast cancer, is frequently amplified and overexpressed in several types of human cancers, but the status of AIB1 amplification and expression in urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UC) and its clinical/prognostic significance is unclear. In our study, the methods of immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in situ hybridization were utilized to examine protein expression and amplification of AIB1 in 163 primary UCs and in 30 samples of normal bladder mucosa. Overexpression of AIB1 and amplification of AIB1 was found in 32.5 and 7.0% of UCs, respectively. In univariate survival analysis of the UC cohorts, a highly significant association of overexpression of AIB1 with shortened patient survival (mean: 45.6 months vs. 59.0 months, p < 0.001, log rank test) was demonstrated. In different subsets of UC patients, overexpression of AIB1 was also a prognostic indicator in grade 1 (p = 0.007), grade 2 (p = 0.010) and grade 3 (p = 0.015) tumor patients, and in pTa (p = 0.025), pT2-4 (p = 0.004), pN0 (p < 0.001) and pT2-4/pN0 (p = 0.040) tumor patients. Importantly, AIB1 expression (p < 0.001) together with pT and pN status (p < 0.05) provided significant independent prognostic parameters in multivariate analysis. In addition, a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of overexpression of AIB1 with an increased UC labeling index of Ki-67 (a cell proliferation marker) was observed in these UCs. Thus, these findings provide evidence that an overexpression of AIB1, as detected by immunohistochemistry, is an independent molecular marker for poor prognosis (shortened survival time) of patients with UC. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.link_to_subscribed_fulltex