Competition in the food marketing chain

Competition in the Australian food marketing chain is of continuing concern, but little evidence is available to guide policy debate. In a search for broad guidelines, the theoretical and empirical evidence is reviewed and the recent report of the Joint Select Committee on the Retailing Sector is examined. Then publicly available data on several food groups are used to test for evidence of persistent market power. The purchasing behaviour of the grains and oilseeds processing sector is found to warrant more detailed attention. A possible research agenda and a call for greater attention to data requirements complete the article.Agribusiness,

Integrating Econometric Models of Australia's Livestock Industries: Implications for Forecasting and Other Economic Analyses

The perceived value of integrating small partial- equilibrium structural models of individual livestock industries into a comprehensive single-sector model is to take advantage of the interrelationships that are usually expressed by cross elasticities on both the supply and demand sides of these industries. Model integration should provide a more realistic representation of the livestock industries and an improved mechanism for industry analyses. However, model integration could also lead to increased error in model simulation that could reduce the value of the larger model for those purposes. Using forecasting as an example application, this paper investigates how the increased endogenisation of cross-commodity relationships in alternative structural econometric models of the Australian livestock industries affects the simulation performance of the larger model. Forecast accuracy and encompassing tests were used to investigate the value of model integration by comparing the accuracy of the models' forecasts and by testing for differences in the information contained in those forecasts. The general result was that combining the models did not adversely affect the forecasts from the integrated model and the encompassing tests indicated that the forecasts of the integrated and single models contained different information. Because the forecasts of the integrated model were not impaired relative to the single model forecasts, model integration was considered to be useful for forecasting and other types of economic analysis in the livestock industries.Structural econometric models, Model integration, Forecasting, Economic analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Pricing-to-market in NSW rice export markets

The Ricegrowers’ Cooperative Limited is a single‐desk seller of NSW Japonica rice on the export market. Confidential monthly price data supplied by the Cooperative were used to examine ‘pricing‐to‐market’ in four of its major export markets. The hypothesis of a competitive market was rejected. The Cooperative has been able to vary mark‐ups over different markets and with respect to the importer’s currency in each market. The exchange rate results in particular suggest that the Cooperative has been able to exercise market power to obtain price premiums.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Examining long-run relationships between Australian beef prices

Cointegration and impulse response analyses are used to investigate the short‐run and long‐run dynamics of the Australian beef market. The aim of this study is to determine whether long‐run relationships existed between Australian beef prices at the farm, wholesale and retail levels. Based on monthly data from 1971 to 1994, the results show that all three prices considered are cointegrated. Furthermore, the wholesale price is found to be weakly exogenous. The latter result might be an indication of market inefficiency due in part to price levelling often practised in the beef marketing system.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Livestock Farming Systems in the Northern Tablelands of NSW: An Economic Analysis

The Northern Tablelands region of New South Wales covers an area of approximately 3.12 million hectares including 2.11 million hectares occupied by some 2300 agricultural establishments producing agricultural commodities valued at more than $220 million. Sheep and wool production and cattle production are the dominant agricultural enterprises. In this Report, a whole-farm model of a representative livestock farming system in the Northern Tablelands is developed. Whole-farm economic models of the relevant farming system are a useful first step in understanding the nature of the biological and economic constraints facing producers in their decision making in relation to their choices of inputs and outputs. Such models are also useful in relation to more general concerns such as the expected impacts of investments in new technologies applicable to grazing systems, or of external events such as drought conditions or a depreciation in the exchange rate. A whole farm budget for a representative farm includes a statement of assets and liabilities, based upon estimates of the various capital items including land, livestock and plant and machinery and farm structures. There is also an annual operating budget that includes the cash income and costs associated with each of the farm enterprises as well as the fixed costs incurred for running the farm over the year to derive the farm cash income. Allowances for depreciation and interest costs are deducted from farm cash income to determine farm operating surplus. No family labor allowance is subtracted, so the resulting farm operating surplus represents a return on owner-operated labor, management and farm assets. Pasture costs are not apportioned to the specific animal enterprises and therefore appear as separate negative gross margins. Similarly, supplementary feeding costs and fodder conservation activities are listed as a separate negative gross margin. A representative farm model of the Northern Tablelands livestock farming system was developed based on ABS and ABARE data on the relevant industries, from simulations with a linear programming model, and from discussions with local graziers and extension officers. The farm comprises 920 ha of which about half is native pasture and about half is introduced pasture. This farm runs a flock of 1,108 first-cross ewes, a flock of 1,732 Merino wethers and a 127 cow herd producing 18 month old steers suitable for the heavy feeder steer market. Using average prices and costs over an extended period of time, the annual operating budget for the farm shows a total gross margin of$86,191 and total overhead costs for the year of $24,720. This results in a farm cash income of$61,471 and a farm operating surplus of $37,471 after depreciation and interest costs. The statement of assets and liabilities shows total assets of the farm to be$1,498,060 and liabilities of $100,000 which equates to an equity level of 93.3 per cent. The farm operating surplus achieved on this model farm as a percentage of the owner's equity is 2.7 per cent. This represents a return on operator and family labor, management and equity. Low returns to equity are typical of Australian broadacre agriculture. Other scenarios examined included whole-farm budgets based on 2002 actual market prices and on 2003 expected prices. Given the relatively high prices for sheep relative to cattle in these years, the representative farm would be more profitable running 1,558 first-cross ewes and 3,595 Merino wethers. Such an enterprise mix would achieve a farm total gross margin of$165,736. After overhead costs, depreciation and interest costs there would be a farm operating surplus of $111,818. Based on equity totaling$1,472,870, this operating surplus would represent a business return on operator labor, management and equity of 8.1 per cent. However, while the Northern Tablelands representative farm model would suggest that greater profits could be achieved from changing enterprises as commodity prices change, in practice various biological lags, infrastructure, financial and management constraints prevent regular changes in farm enterprises. In fact, diversification amongst a variety of farm enterprises between various sheep and cattle enterprises as evidenced in the Northern Tablelands is one management response to this commodity price variability. A hypothetical new improved-pasture technology suggested by researchers, involving the selection of pasture varieties with improved winter pasture growth, was examined using the whole-farm model. If the existing 450 ha of improved pasture was replaced by a new variety that gave a 10 per cent increase in winter pasture growth, this would result in a 4.9 per cent increase in farm total gross margin. This corresponds to an increase in farm cash income of 6.9 per cent. These improvements in the profitability of the representative farm would be achieved by increasing the investment in first-cross ewes and in cows producing heavy feeder steers (by 3.5 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively) and by decreasing the Merino wether enterprise from 1,732 to 1,672 wethers. This indicates that the prime lamb and cow enterprises, under the current assumptions of the model, are better able to utilize the farm resources available given an increase in winter pasture growth. The main conclusions from the analysis are that: Returns to equity are quite low in the Northern Tablelands livestock farming system; variable commodity prices, largely determined in world markets, result in variable levels of profitability of the farming system over time; The optimal farm plan is quite sensitive to small changes in the relative prices of the different outputs produced; In practice farm plans do not change very much as prices change, with most farms maintaining a range of cattle and sheep enterprises; Thus a "representative year" is a more realistic basis for assessing potential changes in farm plans; and new technologies can potentially have large impacts of farm profits and on the mix of resources used and outputs produced.Industrial Organization, Production Economics,

Farm-level Economic Evaluation of Net Feed Efficiency in Australia’s Southern Beef Cattle Production System: A Multi-period Linear Programming Approach

Selection of beef cattle for increased net feed efficiency is a current major focus for research. At present the trait seems to be more apparent in Australia’s southern beef production system which is dominated by mixed farming enterprises. Farm-level evaluation of net feed efficiency should take account of the farming system for which it is proposed along with the dynamic nature of genetic selection. Gross margin, linear programming and multi-period linear programming approaches to evaluation of the trait at the farm-level using a representative farm are compared. Implications of the trait for researchers and beef producers are identifiedfarm-level evaluation, genetic traits, linear programming, Farm Management,

A Northern Tablelands Whole-Farm Linear Program for Economic Evaluation of New Technologies at the Farm-Level

The benefits of evaluating a new technology in a whole-farm context using a linear programming framework are well known. Linear programming allows the joint evaluation of concurrent farm activities, while considering the costs and returns of all enterprises and any resource adjustments imposed by adoption of the technology. This Report provides a rationale for and description of a whole-farm linear programming model that can be used for the economic evaluation of new technologies that are applicable to beef/sheep grazing farms typical of the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. In this farming system, the whole-farm focus incorporates various aspects of the pasture base, resource constraints and sheep and cattle interactions. An overview of economic tools that are available to assess technologies at the farm level is provided first, listing some of the major benefits and limitations of each of these various techniques. A representative farm for the selected farming system is then developed and a whole-farm linear program based on this representative farm is described in some detail. A series of modelling experiments is undertaken to examine variations of the base model and their impact on the resulting technology evaluation. An example technology, involving the genetic improvement of beef cattle for improved feed efficiency (NFE), is evaluated. The optimal farm plan for a "typical" (single) year is generated, given the objective of maximising farm total gross margin. Three enterprises are selected: 1,108 first-cross ewes, 1,732 Merino wethers and a beef herd of 127 cows producing 18 month old heavy feeder steers (HFS) at 448kg liveweight and excess heifers sold as 9 month old weaners. For this farm plan, the annual operating budget shows a total gross margin for the farm of $86,191. The optimal farm plan for the representative farm is found to be sensitive to relatively small changes in input or output prices and production parameters. Only small improvements in a number of the individual enterprise gross margins would result in them displacing the currently selected enterprises. These results suggest relatively similar profitability levels between these sheep and beef enterprises. This would be anticipated given that all the enterprises described in this report were identified by local experts as being common in the Northern Tablelands. Further, the relatively small differences in enterprise profitability when viewed in a whole farm context also reflect the similar resources that each of the enterprises require, making them readily substitutable. For new technologies that have dynamic attributes, measuring the cashflow over time becomes important. Genetic traits in ruminants that have long biological lags are such technologies. This means that a single-year equilibrium model will be unable to effectively measure the costs of introducing the new technology over time. In the case of the NFE technology in beef cattle, any herd expansion that is possible as a result of the trait is measured by the opportunity cost of heifer sales forgone that are instead retained to increase the breeding herd. These herd dynamics can be represented explicitly within a multi-period version of a whole-farm LP model. The NFE cow enterprise is offered to the model, with the initial sheep enterprises set the same as the base case (1,108 prime lamb producing ewes, 1,732 19-micron Merino wethers). The model again selects 127 HFS producing cows in the first year, but the new optimal farm plan is to invest in the new technology by purchasing NFE-superior bulls in successive years and expanding the cow herd while concurrently decreasing the scale of the Merino wether enterprise. Substitution of Merino wethers for NFE cows occurs up to year 12 after which additional breeding cows are possible from their increasing net feed efficiency alone. There is an increase in cow numbers of 12.6 per cent by year 25, which equates to an improvement in the NPV per breeding cow per year over the base herd of$5.02, using a 5 per cent discount rate. Other experiments reported include adding constraints for fixed costs, family drawings and an overdraft facility; alternate discount rates for the NPV calculations; alternate terminal values for the livestock assets at the end of the simulation period; and a post-optimality risk analysis. This study has highlighted several additional benefits of evaluating a technology in a whole-farm multi-period linear programming framework. First, apart from determining the type and size of the optimal farm enterprise mix and the optimal value of the objective function, whole-farm multi-period linear programming also provides important additional information including shadow costs and prices and constraint slacks, and how they change over time. Shadow costs of activities show how sensitive the optimal farm enterprise mix is to changes in the gross margins of alternate farm activities not included in the current farm plan. The shadow prices for resources indicates how much a farm manager could pay for additional units of a limiting resource, for example, additional labour. Second, in terms of the specific NFE technology examined in this report, it would appear that there may well be regions where such feed efficiencies may be of greater benefit due to particularly large variations in pasture growth patterns throughout the year. The Northern Tablelands with its recognised winter feed deficit may be one such area. This information may be of benefit to researchers in extending the NFE technology to farmers. Third, the deterministic multi-period version of the model highlighted the impact of the inclusion of overhead and capital constraints in the modelling process in determining the potential adoption of a technology by a farm manager. The availability and cost of capital is shown to influence the extent to which the NFE technology may be adopted by an individual farm business. Fourth, from a modelling perspective, the effect of uncertain terminal values and the bearing that they have on measuring the level of adoption of a new technology is an area for further investigation. Finally, the impact of risk was assessed in this study post-optimally by the inclusion of stochastic output prices in the optimal whole farm budgets. This is an area for further research, including the potential of alternate modelling techniques such as MOTAD programming or stochastic dynamic programming. However due to size constraints, such approaches may necessitate trade-offs in terms of the detail of whole-farm models to which they are applied.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Designing an effective evaluation model for the South African Department of Agriculture

Governments are under increasing pressure to deliver results. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency and relevance of the public service in implementing policies and programmes for social betterment. Without such evaluations, it is difficult to ensure that evidence is integrated into policy and used in practice due to lack of generalizability and learning. This paper focuses on (1) the knowledge that is relevant to understand evaluation influence, (2) the possible conceptual frameworks that enable understanding of the evaluation implementation process, (3) possible models of the process of organizational evaluation, and (4) the main ways of intervening to increase influence. The context for analysis is the South African Department of Agriculture.Evaluation, Evaluation Influence, Policy, Programmes, South Africa, Political Economy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

One little Lebanese cucumber is not going to break the bank: Price in the choice of fresh fruits and vegetables

This paper reports on empirical research into individual consumer behaviour in the context of fresh fruit and vegetable purchases. The discussion draws on research results from two studies conducted around the actual shopping process. The findings suggest that consumers’ price response behaviour may not be consistent with that predicted by economic theory and that this could be significant at the aggregate level. The existence of ‘acceptable price ranges’ points to the presence of price thresholds within which consumers are relatively insensitive to price movements. Also of relevance is that the primary influence of the budget constraint may be at a broader level rather than at the level of choosing particular products.Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

The influence of weight and fat on lamb prices revisited

Previous research has found inconsistencies in the valuation of weight and fat characteristics of lamb carcasses between the saleyard and wholesale markets. In this paper, recent New South Wales saleyard and wholesale price data on different classes of lamb are analysed using hedonic methods to determine the relative influence of weight and fat on prices received. Fat score 2 lambs are heavily discounted relative to fat score 3 lambs, and there are significant seasonal price differentials, but there are no significant premiums or discounts for weight or other fat characteristics. These results hold for both the saleyard and wholesale markets. The implication is that the efficiency of price discovery in the Australian lamb market has improved a little in recent years in the sense that premiums and discounts are now consistent across market levels. However consumers’ stated preferences for large lean lambs are not being reflected in price incentives generated in the live lamb and lamb carcass markets.lamb, marketing, hedonic models, carcass characteristics, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,