Flood Risk Analysis and Assessment, Applications and Uncertainties: A Bibliometric Review

Studies looking at flood risk analysis and assessment (FRA) reviews are not customary, and they usually approach to methodological and spatial scale issues, uncertainty, mapping or economic damage topics. However, most of these reviews provide a snapshot of the scientific state of the art of FRA that shows only a partial view, focused on a limited number of selected methods and approaches. In this paper, we apply a bibliometric analysis using the Web of Science (WoS) database to assess the historic evolution and future prospects (emerging fields of application) of FRA. The scientific production of FRA has increased considerably in the past decade. At the beginning, US researchers dominated the field, but now they have been overtaken by the Chinese. The Netherlands and Germany may be highlighted for their more complete analyses and assessments (e.g., including an uncertainty analysis of FRA results), and this can be related to the presence of competitive research groups focused on FRA. Regarding FRA fields of application, resilience analysis shows some growth in recent years while land planning, risk perception and risk warning show a slight decrease in the number of papers published. Global warming appears to dominate part of future FRA production, which affects both fluvial and coastal floods. This, together with the improvement of economic evaluation and psycho-social analysis, appear to be the main trends for the future evolution of FRA. Finally, we cannot ignore the increase in analysis using big data analysis, machine learning techniques, and remote sensing data (particularly in the case of UAV sensors data)

Magnitude of formative flows in stream potholes

Although it is generally recognized that geomorphic work is tied to bedrock channel reshaping, the importance of low vs. high flow stages that cause the most geomorphic impact remains unclear. The objective of the research is to study the concept of “formative flow” in bedrock channels and determine, through morphological studies, if those flows have any impact on sculpted features such as potholes and how this relationship relates to various inputs such as flow stages (magnitude and frequency), shear stress, and sediment size. Here, we studied the distribution of the main pothole typologies and tried to understand why potholes are found along bedrock river channels. Specifically, we examined stream potholes from three locations along the Spanish Central System: Alberche, Tietar, and Manzanares rivers. We conducted the research by taking precise geometric measurements, classifying potholes, analyzing flow magnitude and frequency, and using a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model to assess key variables in Manzanares river. This research demonstrated that bankfull depths completely cover all pothole typologies in all the analyzed sites but are not sufficient to achieve its formative flow depth (FFD). Using a detailed 2D hydrodynamic model in Manzanares river, we discovered that dimensions of cylindrical potholes are closely related to bankfull discharge and that this depth is connected to FFD. Other potholes, such as erosive-compound and erosive-lateral, are historical remnants, and their shapes are not related to any particular FFD and are likely associated with rare events and catastrophic breaks. A collection of laterals that exhibit FFD near bankfull flows appear to represent a part of the recent evolution of a knickpoint. To summarize, it can be inferred from the findings that the utility of morphological analysis in conjunction with the 2D hydrodynamic model is to examine the fraction of erosional/active features to determine the degree of senescence and/or change in natural conditions in a river reach.Depto. de Geodinámica, Estratigrafía y PaleontologíaFac. de Ciencias GeológicasTRUERegional Government of Madrid (Spain)pu

Free Global DEMs and Flood Modelling—A Comparison Analysis for the January 2015 Flooding Event in Mocuba City (Mozambique)

Flood hazard and risk analysis in developing countries is a difficult task due to the absence or scarce availability of flow data and digital elevation models (DEMs) with the necessary quality. Up to eight DEMs (ALOS Palsar, Aster GDEM, Bare Earth DEM, SRTM DEM, Merit DEM, TanDEM-X DEM, NASA DEM, and Copernicus DEM) of different data acquisition, spatial resolution, and data processing were used to reconstruct the January 2015 flood event. The systematic flow rate record from the Mocuba city gauge station as well as international aid organisms and field data were used to define both the return period peak flows in years for different flood frequencies (Tyear) and the January 2015 flooding event peak flow. Both visual and statistical analysis of flow depth values at control point locations give us a measure of the different hydraulic modelling performance. The results related to the Copernicus DEM, both in visual and statistical approach, show a clear improvement over the results of the other free global DEMs. Under the assumption that Copernicus DEM provides the best results, a flood hazard analysis was carried out, its results being in agreement with previous data of the effects of the January 2015 flooding event in the Mocuba District. All these results highlight the step forward that Copernicus DEM represents for flood hazard analysis in developing countries, along with the use of so-called “citizen science” in the form of flooding evidence field data acquisition

Can the Quality of the Potential Flood Risk Maps be Evaluated? A Case Study of the Social Risks of Floods in Central Spain

Calibration and validation of flood risk maps at a national or a supra-national level remains a problematic aspect due to the limited information available to carry out these tasks. However, this validation is essential to define the representativeness of the results and for end users to gain confidence in them. In recent years, the use of information derived from social networks is becoming generalized in the field of natural risks as a means of validating results. However, the use of data from social networks also has its drawbacks, such as the biases associated with age and gender and their spatial distribution. The use of information associated with phone calls to Emergency Services (112) can resolve these deficiencies, although other problems are still latent. For example, a bias does exist in the relationship between the size of the population and the number of calls to the Emergency Services. This last aspect determines that global regression models have not been effective in simulating the behavior of related variables (calls to Emergency Services–Potential Flood Risk). Faced with this situation, the use of local regression models (such as locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS)) showed satisfactory results in the calibration of potential flood risk levels in the Autonomous Community of Castilla-La Mancha (Spain). This provides a new methodological path to the calibration studies of flood risk cartographies at national and supra-national levels. The results obtained through LOESS local regression models allowed us to establish the correct relationship between categorized potential risk levels and the inferred potential risk. They also permitted us to define the cases in which said levels differed ostensibly and where potential risk due to floods assigned to those municipalities led to a lower level of confidence. Therefore, based on the number of calls to the Emergency Service, we can categorize those municipalities that should be the subject of a more detailed study and those whose classification should be revised in future updates

A Framework Proposal for Regional-Scale Flood-Risk Assessment of Cultural Heritage Sites and Application to the Castile and León Region (Central Spain)

Floods, at present, may constitute the natural phenomenon with the greatest impact on the deterioration of cultural heritage, which is the reason why the study of flood risk becomes essential in any attempt to manage cultural heritage (archaeological sites, historic buildings, artworks, etc.) This management of cultural heritage is complicated when it is distributed over a wide territory. This is precisely the situation in the region of Castile and León (Spain), in which 2155 cultural heritage elements are registered in the Catalog of Cultural Heritage Sites of Castile and León, and these are distributed along the 94,226 km2 of this region. Given this scenario, the present study proposes a methodological framework of flood risk analysis for these cultural heritage sites and elements. This assessment is based on two main processing tools to be developed in addition: on the one hand, the creation of a GIS database in which to establish the spatial relationship between the cultural heritage elements and the flow-prone areas for different flood return periods and, on the other hand, the creation of a risk matrix in which different variables are regarded as associated both to flood hazard (return period, flow depth, and river flooding typology) and to flood vulnerability (construction typology, and construction structural relationship with the hydraulic environment). The combination of both tools has allowed us to establish each cultural heritage flood risk level, making its categorization of risk possible. Of all the cultural heritage sites considered, 18 of them are categorized under an Extreme flood risk level; and another 24 show a High potential flood risk level. Therefore, these are about 25% to 30% of all cultural heritage sites in Castile and León. This flood risk categorization, with a scientific basis of the cultural heritage sites at risk, makes it possible to define territories of high flood risk clustering; where local scale analyses for mitigation measures against flood risk are necessary

Ethanol production from fractionated eucalyptus wood

Eucalyptus globulus wood (EGW) is a lignocellulosic material with high cellulose and hemicellulose content, suitable for the simultaneous production of hemicellulosic and cellulosic ethanol. Processing of EGW by autohydrolysis yields a liquid phase rich in hemicellulosic-derived compounds (13.73 kg of xylooligosaccharides/ 100 kg of raw material). The liquid phase was processed by membranes, achieving a concentrated-liquor of 52.9 g of xylooligosaccharides/L. The liquor from membrane processing was hydrolyzed with sulphuric acid, detoxified and fermented. The maximal concentration of ethanol from liquid phase was 19.3 g/L (volumetric productivity Qp=0.19 g/Lh and YP/S=0.38 g/g). The solid phase from autohydrolysis was submitted to delignification organosolv, obtained a solid with 81 kg of cellulose/100 kg of delignified solid. The simultaneous saccharification and fermentation of delignified solid was carried out, achieving 62.7 g/L of ethanol with cellulose to ethanol conversion of 92% (based in a cellulose content of delignified solid)

Flood Hazard Management in Public Mountain Recreation Areas vs. Ungauged Fluvial Basins. Case Study of the Caldera de Taburiente National Park, Canary Islands (Spain)

Las Angustias River is an ungauged stream in the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Spain), where frequent intense flash-flood events occur. The aim of this research is to analyze the flood hazard at the Playa de Taburiente. Based on the limited information available (short time-series of daily precipitation), a statistical frequency analysis of 24 h rainfall was completed and the precipitation results were transformed into surface runoff. To determine if the model underestimates the flows that are generated in the basin, the dendro-geomorphological information available was used to calibrate results. The results of the HMS model were significantly lower. At this point, both the rainfall data and the rainfall-runoff model were re-analyzed to maximize the rainfall intensity values and the runoff generated (increasing the CN value for the basin). For the 1997 flood event, a 1250 m3·s−1 flood minimizes the RMSE for the disturbed tree sample; this flow value also clearly exceeds any peak flow derived from the rainfall-runoff analysis. It is only when rainfall intensity and surface runoff are maximized that the peak flows obtained approximate those associated with dendro-geomorphological data. The results highlight the difficulties of flood hazard management in ungauged torrential basins in mountain recreational areas (such as National Parks). Thus, in the absence of flow records, when considering the maximum rainfall intensity scenario may be a useful and effective tool for flood risk management