Consumer confidence after September 11

The terrorist attacks on September 11 dealt a serious blow to the U.S. economy. The damage included the tragic loss of human life, massive property destruction, and disruptions to the travel and shipping industries. But immediately after the attacks, many observers also worried about the possible harm to business and consumer confidence. Although the effects on business confidence are hard to measure, regular surveys of households make it easier to assess the effects on consumer confidence. These surveys show that consumer confidence was surprisingly resilient.> Faced with this resilience, forecasters and policymakers struggled to interpret the movements in consumer confidence. Did consumers quickly return to more normal economic behavior even though they were shocked by the terrorist attacks? Or was the resilience somehow illusory? Were measures of consumer confidence actually lower than would be expected based on prevailing economic conditions? The answers to these questions might have implications about the economic outlook or the proper settings for monetary and fiscal policy.> Garner examines the impact of the terrorist attacks on consumer confidence at the end of 2001. He finds that the terrorist attacks did not cause a clear weakening of consumer confidence after September 11. As a result, the consumer confidence indexes maintained a fairly normal relationship to other economic indicators and did not contain much new information for forecasters and policymakers. The resilience of consumer confidence may have offered some assurance, however, that the worst fears about the economic outlook would not be realized.Consumers ; Consumer behavior ; Terrorism

How useful are leading indicators of inflation?

Many economists expect inflation to rise in 1995. These expectations are based on various approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on the standard economic theory that inflation rises when slack is eliminated from the economy and production exceeds capacity constraints. According to this view, measures of economic slack such as unemployment and capacity utilization provide useful information about the inflation outlook. But the relationship between slack and inflation is complicated and subject to variable lags.> Uncomfortable with this complex relationship, some analysts rely on alternative approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on "leading indicators" of inflation. The leading indicators typically incorporate information on selected prices to augment or replace information on economic slack. The prices selected are usually key commodity prices that fluctuate more or less continuously in response to changing economic conditions. Prominent leading indicators of inflation include the price of gold, broader indexes of commodity prices, and composite indicators that combine several economic series believed to predict the inflation rate.> Garner examines five widely watched leading indicators and concludes that the composite indicators have given the most useful early warning signals of inflation turning points, but none of the indicators has recently been successful in predicting inflation magnitudes.Economic indicators ; Inflation (Finance)

A closer look at the employment cost index

Labor costs have recently come under scrutiny by policymakers, business economists, and financial market participants. The primary concern has been that tight labor markets might lead to faster compensation growth and, ultimately, to upward pressure on general inflation. The employment cost index (ECI) has received particularly close attention because many analysts consider it to be one of the best measures of labor cost inflation. Other analysts, however, have questioned whether the ECI and other labor cost measures are useful in inflation forecasting. One reason for doubting the ECI's inflation forecasting value is that a moderate upward trend in ECI growth over the last three years has, so far, not been matched by a rise in the general inflation rate.> But economic analysts may have other reasons than inflation forecasting for using the ECI. Detailed information on employment cost trends may help analyze labor market developments and, indirectly, may reflect broader economic trends outside the labor market. In addition, companies may find the ECI useful in wage setting and other compensation decisions. Given the high profile that the index has sometimes assumed in the business press and financial markets, it is time to take a closer look at the ECI and evaluate its possible uses.> Garner examines the ECI and other labor cost measures. He finds that the ECI is quite useful in analyzing broad economic trends, such as the shift in jobs toward the service sector, and in making business decisions about employee compensation. He concludes, however, that the ECI is more useful for labor market analysis and wage setting than for general inflation forecasting.Employment (Economic theory) ; Wages ; Employee fringe benefits

An inflation report for 1999

The U.S. economy turned in an exceptional performance in 1999, combining strong real output growth with moderate inflation. Real GDP, a broad measure of the nation's output of goods and services, grew 4.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999. Employment also rose solidly, and the civilian unemployment rate declined to the lowest level in about 30 years. Although rising world oil prices caused consumer prices to increase faster than in 1998, core inflation measures, which exclude food and energy prices, were about the same or slightly lower. Moreover, survey measures of long-term inflation expectations were stable despite the robust pace of the economic expansion.> What accounts for this exceptional combination of rapid growth and moderate inflation? Several factors helped hold down the inflation rate, including strong import competition and ample industrial capacity at home and abroad. But many recent discussions have emphasized the pronounced increase in productivity growth, reflecting both the high level of business investment and accelerated technological change. In particular, new information technologies, such as computers and the Internet, may be increasing economic efficiency through better coordination of business activities and reduced inventories. The evidence is unclear, however, about how much of the productivity acceleration is due to new technologies, and whether faster productivity growth can be sustained in the years ahead.> Such questions are crucial in judging whether rapid growth can continue without undermining the Federal Reserve's long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Garner examines recent inflation developments and the policy implications of faster productivity growth.Inflation (Finance) ; Economic conditions - United States ; Productivity

Consumption taxes : macroeconomic effects and policy issues

Proposals for fundamental reform of the federal tax code are receiving increased attention in the business press and among economic analysts and policymakers. President Bush has identified tax reform as a top priority, calling for a tax system that is “pro-growth, easy to understand, and fair to all.” Moreover, the President has appointed a commission to consider different approaches to tax reform. One approach might be to improve the current income-based federal tax code, perhaps by broadening the tax base and lowering income-tax rates. However, another approach might be to replace current income taxes altogether with a consumption tax. Switching the federal tax system from an income tax to a consumption tax could have important macroeconomic effects. Most economists believe that switching to a consumption tax could increase saving and real output per person over the long run, although studies differ on the size of these effects. However, switching to a consumption tax might also require sizable short-run economic adjustments and create challenges for monetary policymakers. Garner analyzes the macroeconomic effects of replacing the current federal tax system with a consumption tax. First, he provides some background on the goals of tax reform and the basic difference between an income tax and a consumption tax. Next, he describes three widely discussed versions of a consumption tax: a national retail sales tax, a value-added tax, and a consumption-type flat tax. Finally, he examines the macroeconomic effects of adopting a consumption tax. All three proposals could raise U.S. output over the long run, but adopting a consumption tax could have sizable transition effects as well. These transition effects could vary depending on which consumption tax was adopted and how monetary policy responded to the reforms.Consumption (Economics) ; Taxation ; Tax reform

Social Security privatization: balancing efficiency and fairness

This article examines these fundamental issues of economic efficiency and fairness that should be weighed when considering Social Security privatization. The first section summarizes the challenges to the current system and outlines various options for reform. The second section explains how privatization could improve economic efficiency, and briefly considers the difficult issue of the transition costs in moving from the current system to full privatization. The third section discusses important issues of fairness within and across generations. Any decision to privatize Social Security will require balancing the likely gains of greater real output and fairer returns to younger generations with the possible adverse effects of a more unequal income distribution among retirees and greater investment risks. This balancing must occur through the political process because fairness is a matter of values rather than economic analysis.Social security

Should the decline in the personal saving rate be a cause for concern?

The personal saving rate has received particular attention recently because saving was negative in 2005 for the first time since the Great Depression. Although saving declined in other developed countries during this period, the U.S. decline was more pronounced than in most of these countries. ; A major concern is whether U.S. households are providing adequately for long-term needs, such as future retirement and medical expenses. In addition, low personal saving has created short-run concerns that a sudden increase in the saving rate could reduce growth of consumer spending, real output, and employment. ; But there is another, often overlooked side to this story. Two major factors suggest the decline in the personal saving rate may not be as alarming as it is sometimes made out to be. First, various measurement problems with the personal saving rate from the national income and product accounts suggest household saving may not have declined as much as the statistics suggest. Second, economic theory assumes that households rationally anticipate future labor income and asset returns and plan their spending accordingly. If this assumption is correct, the low personal saving rate may not foreshadow wrenching future adjustments in consumer spending. ; Garner provides some perspective on the decline in the personal saving rate over the last two decades. After weighing the issues, he concludes that, although there are some legitimate reasons for concern, the decline in the personal saving rate may not be as alarming as it first appears.Saving and investment

Offshoring in the service sector : economic impact and policy issues

The United States continues to run an international trade surplus in services, but business stories frequently appear about service-sector jobs moving offshore. Many Americans are particularly concerned about the loss of skilled, well-paid jobs in such fields as computer programming and accounting. These jobs seemed relatively secure at a time when many manufacturing jobs were being lost to import competition. Similarly, telephone call centers, once viewed as an economic development opportunity in some areas, increasingly are moving to low-wage countries, such as India and the Philippines. Reflecting this growing concern, some members of Congress and state legislators have focused attention on the offshoring of service jobs and production, even introducing legislation to limit the outsourcing of jobs to other countries. Offshoring raises many questions for policymakers and the general public. For example, which service jobs will be affected most by import competition? What are the most likely effects of service-sector offshoring on U.S. output, employment, and, most important, our standard of living? Is offshoring really a problem that requires restrictive government actions, or are other kinds of policies more appropriate to give Americans the highest possible living standard? ; Garner examines the economic effects of offshoring and possible policy responses. He finds that although the offshoring of service jobs hurts some workers, offshoring should not permanently lower U.S. employment or production. ; Moreover, the average living standard can benefit over the long run if the nation adopts policies to retrain displaced workers and move them into expanding industries.Service industries

Progress toward price stability : a 1998 inflation report

Price stability was not literally achieved in 1998, as many measures of the price level continued to rise, and inflation expectations were well above zero. Yet in 1998, consumer prices rose at the lowest rate in over a decade, and any upward pressures on inflation were surprisingly subdued.> Although many economists still worry about potential upward pressures on the inflation rate, last year's low inflation and foreign economic crises have produced a new set of concerns. In particular, some economic observers and financial market participants are concerned that disinflation, the process of lowering the inflation rate, may go so far as to produce deflation, a persistent decline in the general price level. These observers point to large decreases in petroleum prices and other primary commodity prices, rapidly falling computer prices, and moderate declines in U.S. nonoil import prices as possible signs of deflation.> Garner argues that last year's favorable inflation performance, while suggestive of further modest progress toward price stability, does not foreshadow an emerging deflationary period. He reviews price developments over the last year, showing that many broad measures of inflation declined in 1998, but most remained positive. He also examines the slight decline in long-term inflation expectations last year and its implications for future monetary policy.Prices ; Inflation (Finance)

Middle-income tax rates: trends and prospects

The federal tax liabilities of different income groups change constantly in response to new tax laws and shifting economic circumstances. For example, in recent years, Congress has lowered individual income tax rates, increased child and dependent care credits, and reduced taxes on dividends and capital gains. Much of the economic analysis and political debate about these federal tax changes concerns the impact on upper- or lower-income groups, while the impact on middle-income taxpayers sometimes gets forgotten. ; The trends in tax rates can be difficult for middle-income taxpayers, themselves, to discern. Modest revisions to the federal tax code may hardly be noticed in any given year; yet these revisions could build over time into a large change in the middle-income tax rate. Some taxpayers may also find it difficult to determine whether changes in their tax liability are due to legislated changes in the federal tax code or shifts in their own circumstances. ; Davig and Garner define the effective federal tax rate for middle-income households and discuss the problems in computing this measure. They find that the effective federal tax rate facing middle-income households has trended downward over the last 25 years and is currently low by historical standards. Moreover, the composition of middle-income tax liabilities over this period has shifted away from individual income taxes toward payroll taxes. Finally, they show that under current tax law middle-income taxes are projected to rise in the future.Taxation