Quantifying the benefit of non-selective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: a Bayesian re-analysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of benefit with beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS We undertook a Bayesian re-analysis of PREDESCI incorporating three priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of benefit. In the Bayesian analysis the probability that beta-blockers reduce all cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefit. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level

β blockers to prevent decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (PREDESCI): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND Clinical decompensation of cirrhosis is associated with poor prognosis. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), defined by a hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥10 mm Hg, is the strongest predictor of decompensation. This study aimed at assessing whether lowering HVPG with β blockers could decrease the risk of decompensation or death in compensated cirrhosis with CSPH. METHODS This study on β blockers to prevent decompensation of cirrhosis with portal hypertension (PREDESCI) was an investigator-initiated, double-blind, randomised controlled trial done in eight hospitals in Spain. We enrolled patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH without high-risk varices. All participants had HVPG measurements with assessment of acute HVPG-response to intravenous propranolol. Responders (HVPG-decrease ≥10%) were randomly assigned to propranolol (up to 160 mg twice a day) versus placebo and non-responders to carvedilol (≤25 mg/day) versus placebo. Doses were individually determined during an open-label titration period after which randomisation was done with 1:1 allocation by a centralised web-based system. The primary endpoint was incidence of cirrhosis decompensation (defined as development of ascites, bleeding, or overt encephalopathy) or death. Since death in compensated cirrhosis is usually unrelated to the liver, an intention-to-treat analysis considering deaths unrelated to the liver as competing events was done. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01059396. The trial is now completed. FINDINGS Between Jan 18, 2010, and July 31, 2013, 631 patients were evaluated and 201 were randomly assigned. 101 patients received placebo and 100 received active treatment (67 propranolol and 33 carvedilol). The primary endpoint occurred in 16 (16%) of 100 patients in the β blockers group versus 27 (27%) of 101 in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·51, 95% CI 0·26-0·97, p=0·041). The difference was due to a reduced incidence of ascites (HR=0·44, 95%CI=0·20-0·97, p=0·0297). The overall incidence of adverse events was similar in both groups. Six patients (four in the β blockers group) had severe adverse events. INTERPRETATION Long-term treatment with β blockers could increase decompensation-free survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, mainly by reducing the incidence of ascites. FUNDING Spanish Ministries of Health and Economy

Bacterial infections adversely influence the risk of decompensation and survival in compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS The prognosis of compensated cirrhosis is good until decompensation. In decompensated cirrhosis, bacterial infections (BIs) are common and increase the risk of death. The incidence and prognostic implications of BIs in compensated cirrhosis are less-well characterized. This study aimed to assess whether BIs influence the risk of decompensation and survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS This is a cohort study nested to the PREDESCI study, a double-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether β-blockers could prevent decompensation of cirrhosis. Patients with compensated cirrhosis and hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mmHg were included. Development of BIs during follow-up was prospectively registered. Using a competing-risk time-dependent regression analysis, we investigated whether BIs affect the risk of decompensation and survival. Decompensation was defined as development of ascites, bleeding or overt encephalopathy. RESULTS A total of 201 patients were randomized and followed for a median of 36 months (IQR 24-47 months); 34 patients (17%) developed BIs, which occurred before decompensation in 33 cases, and 29 (14%) developed ascites. Respiratory and urinary tract infections were the most frequent BIs. Decompensation occurred in 26% patients with BIs vs. 16% without BIs. Patients with BIs were at higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.93; 95% CI 1.02-8.42; p = 0.047) and of developing ascites (SHR 3.55; 95% CI 1.21-10.47; p = 0.022) than those without BIs. Risk of death was also higher in patients with BIs (subdistribution HR 6.93; 95% CI 2.64-18.18; p <0.001), although decompensation occurred before death in 71% of such cases. CONCLUSIONS BIs have a marked impact on the natural history of compensated cirrhosis, significantly increasing the risk of decompensation, mainly that of ascites, and increasing the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. Our results suggest that BIs may constitute a target to prevent decompensation. LAY SUMMARY It is widely known that bacterial infections are common and increase the mortality risk in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, the relevance of bacterial infections in compensated cirrhosis has not been well studied. This study shows that in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, bacterial infections occur as frequently as the development of ascites, which is the most frequent decompensating event. Bacterial infections increase the risk of progression to decompensation, mainly by increasing the risk of ascites, and also increase the risk of death, which usually occurs after decompensation. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFIER NCT01059396