Modélisation de la répartition future de la végétation en Corse

Info DFCI, numéro 65. CEMAGREF éditionsLe Centre de recherche sur les risques et les crises de l'École des mines de Paris a étudié l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur la répartition spatiale d'une cinquantaine de plantes en Corse et les conséquences sur les incendies de forêt

Performance Evaluation of Organizational Crisis Cell: methodological proposal at communal level.

International audienceCrisis management has become an essential activity for all public and private organizations. Crisis management is most often based on a specific tool called "crisis cell". This paper aims to implement the precautions of anticipation, vigilance and intervention to meet the targets. Recent studies indicate that for over 50 years, catastrophic events have increased. In France, the crisis management plans are deployed to ensure an optimal state of readiness in case of a crisis. However, these plans do not guarantee optimal performance of crisis units. Crisis cells may become particularly vulnerable, and unable to fulfill their missions according to each event. This article proposes a method, primarily based on systems thinking to understand the vulnerability of the crisis cell and assess the performance of crisis management at the municipal level

Multi-Agents Model Oriented Safety in Maintenance (MAM-SM)

International audienceThis paper proposes an agent-based simulation framework for the development of a decision support system for occupational risks management in a maintenance task. The proposed model is defined as a Multi-Agent system oriented Safety in Maintenance (MAM-SM). This model aggregates many agents, where architecture includes agents Supervisor, Resource, Machine, Environment, Reasoning, Task, Control and Agent Capitalization. Based on a multi-agent simulator, the objective of the proposed approach is to account for the complexity of the maintenance task for better analysis and understanding of risks. It allows orienting the actors to the best decisions in order to minimize risks that may arise. The method is applied to two case studies. The results show that this model can express the behavior of each agent and also the performance of the whole system. In particular, the results demonstrate that the maintenance tasks can be controlled to avoid an accident

Vulnérabilité du territoire: caractérisation et implémentation en gestion de crise

International audienceCe chapitre a pour objectif de présenter les éléments recueillis et analysés pour évaluer la vulnérabilité du territoire s'étendant de Nice à Savona face au risque d'accident de TMD et des conséquences associées. Une définition de la vulnérabilité territoriale est proposée à partir d'une analyse de modèles et d'indice de vulnérabilité. Le premier point s'attache ainsi à définir le concept de vulnérabilité. Le deuxième point aborde les différents seuils de vulnérabilité biophysique caractéristiques des enjeux humains et des structures recueillis auprès d'organismes et centres de recherche nationaux et internationaux réalisant des études toxicologiques et de résistance des matériaux. Le troisième point décrit le territoire d'étude, les flux de marchandises dangereuses qui le traversent sur ses axes routiers et présente les éléments considérés comme vulnérables face aux conséquences d'accidents de TMD à proximités des voies d'accès. Enfin, la dernière partie propose une définition de la vulnérabilité territoriale face au risque de TMD sur laquelle s'appuie le modèle général de réduction de la vulnérabilité proposé et qui sous-tend les travaux de recherche et développement présentés dans les chapitres successifs

Dynamic Analysis of Safety Performance Indicators for CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage Activities

We are grateful to the publisher of Chemical Engineering Transactions, for letting this publication being archived in this Open Access repository. The publication is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.3303/CET1226025International audienceCapture, Transport and storage of CO2 (CTSC) is a novel technology for mitigating CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and reduce the climate change impacts on ecosystems, human beings and natural resources. However, potential technical, environmental, health, safety and social risks associated with CTSC activities should be studied in order to reassure the stakeholders that CTSC will not have adverse effects on human beings and environment. CTSC can be considered as a complex sociotechnical system, for which traditional risk management approaches are not appropriate. An integrated approach is required for risk management of CTSC. The integrated approach should cover the interactions of capture, transport and storage, as well as the technical, organizational and human aspects of risk. The purpose is to evaluate the performance of safety control system in CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage chain. The idea is to develop a dynamic risk management framework by modeling the principal variables that are significant in terms of safety of CTSC, and study the evolution of these variables over time. These variables can be the ones that are integrated into the Safety Management System (SMS) in order to implement them into a scorecard containing the variation of key performance indicators over time, both in normal operation of the system, and in case of a failure. In this context, system dynamics is used for modeling. The model will allow us to know how the interaction of different variables (technique, organizational or human) may result in variation of performance indicators. The proposed methodology is based on eight steps that will be presented in the paper. The proposed framework is applied to an integrated CTSC project with an enterprise as the owner, and several firms and organizations as operators, designers and stakeholders. In this paper, the approach will be explained in detail and some preliminary results will be presented

A new dynamic risk analysis framework for CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage chain,

Availaible: http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2011/proceed/papers/P1249.pdfInternational audienceCO2 emission of industrial facilities is a major cause of climate change that affects the ecosystems, human beings and environment. Capture, Transport and Storage of CO2 (CTSC) is a novel technology of mitigating the impacts of climate change. The uncertainties concerning long term reliability of CTSC technology give rise to the significance of risk assessment for CTSC activities. Since CTSC is a complex sociotechnical system, traditional risk assessment approaches are not appropriate for CTSC. Lessons learned of industrial accidents show that a combination of technical, organizational and human aspects of risk results in occurrence of accidents. Therefore, we recommend to develop an integrated risk analysis framework for CTSC chain. The framework is developed by modeling CTSC chain by system dynamics approach. System dynamics is a support for risk assessment that allows understanding the interactions of CTSC system's elements in the first step, and then study the behavior of the system over time both in normal operation mode and in case of a failure or deviance. In this paper, the methodology is explained in detail, and the application of the methodology for an integrated CTSC project is discussed

Etude de faisabilité technico-économique pour le développement d'un centre transfrontalier de monitorage des transports de marchandises

International audienceL'Etude sur la définition de la vulnérabilité systémique causée par la fermeture du tunnel du Fréjus a été focalisé sur les conséquences de la survenue d'un éventuel accident ou d'un événement dangereux sur les infrastructures de transport autoroutier en proximité du tunnel. Ces territoires concernés, cependant limités, font partie, en fait, d'un système plus complexe. La définition de la vulnérabilité systémique implique en effet la connaissance de la complexité structurelle d'un système à réseau plus grand et elle est intrinsèque au fonctionnement du même réseau dans le but d'identifier la propension plus grande ou plus petite du système à résister à la survenue d'un phénomène en évaluant la réduction des performances du système entier. Pour cette raison, pour évaluer d'une manière complète les possibles conséquences qui pourraient être générées par un accident qui puisse impliquer l'infrastructure du tunnel du Fréjus, nous avons examiné les infrastructures de l'autoroute du Piémont et de la Ligurie et, inversement sur le territoire Français, des régions du PACA e des Rhône-Alpes

Performance Assessment of Crisis Management Plans with the Contribution of Multi-agent Systems

5th International Conference on Safety & Environment in Process & Power Industry - Milan 3-6 June, 2012 : CISAP5. We are grateful to the publisher of Chemical Engineering Transactions, for letting this publication being archived in this Open Access repository. The publication is available at: http://www.aidic.it/cet/12/26/025.pdfInternational audienceCrisis management aims to implement precautions of anticipation, vigilance and intervention to meet the targets. It is based on a specific tool called "crisis cell" also based on Crisis Management Plans. Crisis Management Plans are formalized in order to provide to the organizations a structured tool, where the staff involved into the crisis cell can find information and procedures. Usually, the Crisis Management Plans are tested with the preparation of exercises that can involve the Industries, the Civil Protection and the Municipalities. The improvements of these plans are based on the feedback experience from real or simulated events. However, the study of feedback experience according to real crisis show these plans do not guarantee an optimal performance of crisis cells and crisis management process. Crisis cells may become particularly weak and unable to fulfil their missions according to their own points of vulnerability. This fact underlines the importance of the implementation of a comprehensive approach for decision making, particularly on indicators performance ensuring an effective management of emergencies in terms of space and time. In this context, the authors aim to assess the organizational performance of a crisis cell, which can be considered as a complex system. This performance is based on the four main factors that must be assessed: i) The organizational and institutional factors: the complexity of the organizational network ii) The technical and resource factors: the type of infrastructure dedicated to crisis management iii) The time factors iv) The knowledge and skill factors: past experience crises, the level of preparation, the inability to effectively use the alert and communication equipments. The methodology developed is primarily based on systems thinking. The systemic approach aims to understand and simulate the operations of the crisis management, including the interactions between actors which are complex. This model describes the functions and resources of communal safeguard plan. It represents an approach particularly suited to understand the behavior of a system. This model is also applied to give a formal reflection frame in order to analyze the potential failures of the crisis cell. The proposed methodology includes five steps: systemic exploration, qualitative modelling, dynamic modelling, simulation and risk analysis. This methodology was chosen for several reasons. Firstly, systemic exploration and qualitative modelling aim to understand and to analyze the complexity of a system, set goals and avoid mistakes in decision-making. UML (Unified Modelling Language) will be used to modelling the crisis cell. Secondly, a system to be effective, must know how to react in the time and in the complexity. Dynamic modelling is used to model and simulate the system to deal with the unexpected. MAS (Multi Agent System) were chosen to modeling dynamically the system. This analysis will propose recommendations to the studied organization for improving the organizational structure of the crisis. This methodology is a decision support toolbox that can be used to help the managerial decisions and / or guide decision-making processes in organized systems

Identification et reconnaissance automatique des TMD sur route et aide à la décision - Fiche 3

Rapport disponible sur : http://portail.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/dri/document.xsp?id=Drast-OUV00002030Etat de l'art de la gestion concertée des transports de matières dangereuses aux niveaux régional et local. Projet d'étude et d'animation d'ateliers : la gestion des risques liés aux transports de matières dangereuses au niveau des agglomérations, élaboration de recommandations et d'outils méthodologiques, sous la coordination de Philippe BLANCHER et Sandrine MAILLET. Programme national de recherche et d'innovation dans les transports terrestres. Lyon : ASCONIT Consultants, Saint-Etienne : CIRIDLe Pôle Cindyniques de l'Ecole des Mines de Paris mène des études sur l'apport de l'imagerie pour l'identification et la reconnaissance automatique des TMD sur route. Dans ce cadre, il collabore avec la société d'autoroute ESCOTA pour le développement d'un prototype sur une barrière de péage (voie " camion "). A partir des images acquises par le prototype et des traitements effectués par le logiciel d'identification et de reconnaissance, il est possible de connaître, à un temps t ou pour une période précise, le nombre et le type de matières dangereuses ayant transité sur le site concerné. Ces informations sont aussi utilisées dans le cadre de simulations pour estimer les dommages (population, bâtiments...) en cas d'accident TMD. Par ailleurs, le Pôle Cindyniques coordonne un projet INTERREG III A Alcotra (TMDNIS) en partenariat avec l'Université de Gênes, concernant la gestion transfrontalière des TMD sur route et les risques associés. La contribution du partenaire italien porte en partie sur l'apport de technologies embarquées (GPS) pour le suivi des véhicules. Ce projet ambitionne aussi le développement conjoint d'un système d'aide à la décision à partir d'un modèle dynamique de risque TMD sur l'axe Nice -Imperia - Savona

Diversité et complexité de la mise en œuvre du principe « globalement au moins aussi équivalent » (GAME)

International audienceObjective of this article is to present preliminary results of a study aiming to define operational problematic related to the application of the "Globally at Least as Equivalent" Principle (GAME) in the transport by train sector. Results will structure the development of methods and tools aiming to improve the application of this principle.La finalité de l'article est de présenter les premiers résultats d'une investigation visant à caractériser les problématiques opérationnelles de la mise en oeuvre du principe GAME (Globalement Au Moins aussi Equivalent) dans le secteur ferroviaire. Ces résultats visent à servir de fondements à la définition et à la mise en oeuvre d'une ingénierie méthodologique et pédagogique de gestion des conséquences du changement sur la sécurité des organisations sociotechniques